Office for Environmental Programs - Theses
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ItemA Bayesian analysis of climate change risks for the Japanese pulp and paper industry( 2018)The business sector is one of the largest greenhouse gas emitters in Japan, and it has faced various physical impacts caused by climate change. However, the knowledge of how the business sector in Japan should react to climate change risks and impacts is still limited. With regard to the significant values of the pulp and paper industry, this study aimed to identify the key challenges for the Japanese pulp and paper industry to adapt climate change risks. The review on academic literature revealed the major physical climate risks in Japan: intensive rainfall-related risks; drought risks; and extreme heat risks. Using the result of the literature review, a conceptual model was developed which describes cause and effect between climate change events and a pulp and paper manufacturer. Finally, the conceptual model was quantified as a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) to explore the probability of risks to manufacturing and business continuity under various scenarios. To evaluate uncertainty, a sensitivity analysis was implemented to test the model and examine the influence of each variable to the key endpoints in the BBN, and best-case, worst-case and most-likely case models were developed based on the findings. The impacts of climate change on hypothetical companies were then explored using these three models. The result of the sensitivity analysis showed strong influences of ‘Drought’, ‘Suppliers risk’, ‘Financial resource’ and ‘Backup facilities’ compared with ‘Extreme rainfalls’ and ‘Extreme heat’. Similarly, two main points were obtained from the results of case studies: (1) Greater risks to a plant in West Japan than East and North Japan region; and (2) Greater risks to small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) without sufficient adaptive capacities. Through running the BBN, three main implications were highlighted: (1) The importance of recognising drought risks and preparing for the risk; (2) Possible relocations of pulp and paper plants from West Japan to other areas; and (3) Challenges for SMEs to obtain financial resources for mitigating the risks to manufacturing and gaining resilience.
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ItemResponsible Investment in Blue Carbon Resources: “Constraints and potential motivations to attracting large-scale private capital investment in blue carbon resources”( 2018)Coastal marine ecosystems provide critical climate change mitigation benefits and ecosystem services. The moniker blue carbon can be applied to coastal marine ecosystems comprising mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses. These blue carbon ecosystems are increasingly being recognised for their highly effective carbon sequestration capacity, often factorially more effective than terrestrial ecosystems. Despite this, private investment in blue carbon resources (BC) is infinitesimal and confined to specialised niche projects. While blue carbon science and policy research advances private investment perspectives in relation to BC are limited. Within this context there are emerging shifts in global, private capital markets aimed at more measured capital deployment or responsible investment (RI). Such shifts often aligning with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and are guided by initiatives such as the United Nations Principles for Responsible Investment (PRI). This research utilises an anonymously distributed online survey and quantitative exploratory analysis of perspectives from 44 private investment respondents. Respondents were segmented into those actors with for- profit and not-for-profit motives. Key research findings were the comparatively low level of familiarity amongst respondents for blue carbon, when compared with similarly themed terms. This finding was supported by respondents indicating a low level of knowledge relating to broader carbon market investment. Additionally, notwithstanding the growing responsible investment market respondents remained predominantly return on investment focused. Despite this and encouraging for BC stakeholders is the high proportion of respondents whom view co-benefits as an important factor for large-scale investment. For BC stakeholders this research expands on existing knowledge on investment, with a more targeted focus on private large-scale investment motivations and constraints. The research largely comprises Australian based respondents.
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ItemCarbon implication of demolition and construction in urban China: Changsha City as a case study( 2018)Ever-increasing emissions of greenhouse gases have triggered global warming, severely limiting the sustainable development possibilities of human society. China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, and is currently undergoing the process of urban-rural integration. Large population inflows into cities have led to a massive demand for housing, resulting in a great deal of large-scale demolition and construction in China. The lifespan of Chinese buildings is very short compared to in developed countries in the West. Therefore, this paper aims to examine the implications that carbon emissions have for urban renewal processes by taking ‘X’ area in Changsha as a case study. In order to explore the temporal and spatial changes in carbon emissions from the case location, the study employs both qualitative and quantitative methods. From the perspective of total carbon emissions, the carbon emissions of the ‘X’ region are very large, and residential buildings have the largest proportion of emissions. Furthermore, carbon emissions which occur during the demolition process are very low compared to carbon emissions resulting from the construction process. In addition, the carbon emissions of concrete and steel in the construction process account for the majority of carbon emissions. From the perspective of carbon emissions over time, the amount of carbon emissions is continually increasing, although the total amount of new buildings is decreasing. Carbon emissions in recent decades have shown that the government's low-carbon policy is not sufficient and has not achieved significant results. The demolition process involves severe carbon losses because there is no specific construction waste recycling plan in Changsha, which causes serious waste of construction materials. As can be seen from the spatial arrangement of carbon emissions, carbon emissions have occurred in the form of clusters for nearly two decades, as the gated community has become a new norm for Chinese society. The impact of rapid urbanisation on carbon emissions is noticeable. After China's reform and opening up, the influence of the market gradually emerged, leading to property-led reconstruction, local boosterism, urban development companies and site construction. The reason China's buildings are typically short-lived is due to irrational urban planning, and understaffed municipal facilities cannot meet the growing demand for housing. Only by increasing the efficiency of recycling construction and demolition waste can the construction industry avoid overuse of new materials in buildings, which generates additional carbon emissions. The City Planning Bureau and the Urban and Rural Construction Bureau together need to protect buildings and reduce short-lived buildings. In addition, construction and demolition waste recycling systems need to be built to facilitate the recycling of construction waste.
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ItemWhat factors constrain and enable the integration of blue carbon into the existing locally managed marine area (LMMA) network?( 2018)Blue carbon refers to the carbon stored in coastal ecosystems like mangroves, seagrasses, and tidal salt marshes. The conservation and restoration of these threatened 'blue habitats' is a field that has received increased attention in the international community over the last decade as a means to address climate change mitigation, adaptation, biodiversity protection, and sustainable development agendas. Locally managed marine areas (LMMAs) are community-based marine management schemes where coastal communities are central in the management of their coastal and marine resources for food security, income livelihoods, and coral reef conservation. The LMMA network is a global network of communities, research bodies, civil society organisations (CSOs), government agencies, and private sector partners, that share knowledge, skills, expertise, and best practice approaches to marine natural resource management. The Fiji LMMA network (FLMMA) is the most successful and well recognised national subsidiary. This thesis seeks to identify what factors constrain and enable the integration of blue carbon into the existing LMMA network. This is explored through two chapters written as academic journal papers (intended for publication). Paper one (P1) uses an integrated and adaptive natural resource governance framework, to analyze 16 semi-structured interviews with 'specialists' in the field. Paper two (P2) uses a social-ecological systems (SES) sustainability framework to evaluate key benefits and required trade-offs taken from two focus group discussions (FGDs), interviews, 'mud-mapping', and field observations in one of Fiji's oldest LMMA sites, Navakavu. The thesis finds that there are a range of benefits in terms of the networks’ existing governance structures and sectoral integration in the South Pacific that make this incorporation favourable. However, there are several constraining issues in terms of weak compliance and enforcement systems, high level government corruption, and restrictive bureaucratic processes that threaten its viability. Further, SES outcomes from LMMA implementation have been mixed and some specialists question the efficacy of the approach as local pollution and poaching remain pervasive. Nevertheless, the important role that mangroves and seagrasses play in coastal ecosystems, and the connectivity and co-benefits that they provide from the 'ridge to the reef', makes blue carbon investment in Fiji and across the Pacific ecologically and socially attractive. While delivering carbon finance directly to communities is ill-advised there are several creative options for blue carbon financers to invest into community-based conservation, restoration, and management of blue ecosystems including high level investment into the networks’ capacity to provide ongoing support to its community partners.
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ItemFinding the last Hawkweed plant: how detection rate scales with cluster size( 2018)When surveying or monitoring a species, the assumption that all the individuals living in the sampling area will be detected rarely holds. Even for plants, detection probabilities are typically less than 1 (where 1 represents perfect detection). Detectability estimates can be affected by ecological processes, observational processes, and by the interactions between the two. For invasive species control programs understanding the factors affecting detectability is critical to determining the effort needed to reduce population density to a desired level, or prevent their establishment in new areas. The influence of cluster size on detection rate was investigated in the context of Orange Hawkweed and King-Devil Hawkweed, herbaceous species with the potential to cause significant environmental harm in Australian alpine habitats. Detection rate was modelled using a well-recognised time-to-detection modelling approach. In this model, detection rate is proportional to a power function of Hawkweed cluster size, with a scaling exponent that depends on the nature of this relationship. All other factors being equal, rate of detection is expected to increase less-than-proportionally with increasing cluster size; specifically, it should rise with the square root of cluster size, owing to rudimentary mathematics governing apparent size. The scaling exponent, and other model parameters, were estimated using data from search experiments involving six different Hawkweed cluster sizes and 15 searchers. The data support the validity of the model. High inter-observer variability in detection rates generated substantial credible intervals for the scaling exponent estimates. Nevertheless, these estimates suggest a deviation from the expectation that detection rate varies with the square root of cluster size. Reasons for this discrepancy are proposed, centring on the influence of perception psychology in the formation of Hawkweed ‘images’ by searchers. The findings may couple well with distance sampling methodology to refine the systematic monitoring, or eradication, of Hawkweed within a defined area. Quantifying the Detection rate – Cluster-size relationship yields better estimates of the minimum effort required to find solitary plants, which, in turn, improves resource allocation.
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ItemA review of the Integrated Water Catchment Management approach in Victoria, Australia( 2018)The purpose of this literature review was to examine the current Integrated Water Catchment Management (IWCM) approach within the Goulburn Broken Catchment, Victoria, Australia. An integrated approach to water resource management, is deemed necessary, as previous management, which focused solely on an individual or localised issue, overlooked other catchment issues which may have had flow on effects if not considered (Crase and Cooper, 2015). This review therefore examined the how the approach is perceived on the global scale, which is evidently not bound by a precise definition. The review moved on to the current approach in the State of Victoria, which led to the basis of the discussion of the IWCM within the Goulburn Broken Catchment, which is supported by the newly established Integrated Catchment Management (ICM) Framework for Victoria. The review highlights the importance of integration across policy, legislation and between key management organisations, which is currently well established. Integration in terms of water catchment management priorities, is not as coherent, as it is evident that water allocation and environmental values of waterways have not been integrated into planning. The review concludes its discussion with current approaches to community engagement within the planning and implementation of management within the catchment, indicating that this has been done well in the past, although, evidence is required to determine whether indigenous community are considered appropriately. Further research and discussion focused on the integration of water management priorities within the catchment and interaction with adjacent catchment is required to strengthen the current IWCM approach.
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ItemOptimising acoustic detection of the Spotted Tree Frog( 2018)Passive Acoustic Monitoring (PAM) is a popular tool in ecology studies for estimating species populations. While PAM has been used to great success in ecological studies, it has not been without challenges. Ecological studies tend to investigate complex field environments where extraneous sounds such as weather, terrain and external noise sources are difficult to control. As PAM in ecology is a relatively new area, knowledge of best practices for recording and analysing acoustic data has not yet been established. Without knowledge of best practice procedures, PAM studies run the risk of being high-cost with minimal benefit, as well as providing an incomplete picture of species distribution. This study investigates how a playback study conducted at the intended field site can provide valuable insight into the efficient placement of PAM recorders. By using the Spotted Tree Frog as a case study, we have investigated the impact of species and landscape characteristics on sound propagation to make recommendations for PAM studies specifically detecting the spotted tree frog, as well as ecology PAM studies in general. Our results showed that time of day, terrain, vegetation, weather, site and characteristics of sound playback all impact detectability and that there is an optimum positioning of PAM recorders to detect the spotted tree frog at our study location. Overall, this research highlights the importance of preliminary analysis specific to the site and species to ensure maximum success of PAM studies.
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ItemChina's South-to-North Water Transfer Project：reshaping the geography of water supply in Beijing( 2018)The South-to-North Water Transfer Project is a major strategic scheme in China. There is no precedent in terms of time span, investment, and engineering scale, with the East and Middle Routes being implemented in succession. 25 billion cubic meters of water will be transported annually to northern China through this project, 3 billion of which will subsequently be transported directly to Beijing. As is often the case in megacities, extreme water scarcity, water safety, and water resources have become the biggest issues hindering Beijing's development. The arrival of "south water" has significantly alleviated this problem and fundamentally affected the water supply pattern in Beijing. This paper focuses on the analysis of these impacts from three perspectives: • the overall perspective of the city • the perspective of Beijing Waterworks • the perspective of users and finally draws a spatial variation map with the water allocation in inner Beijing.
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ItemCivil society advocacy towards sustainable food systems policy in Victoria( 2016)The current food system is widely regarded as unsustainable, in terms of its impact on the environment and population health, and in the inequality of current access to food. A policy shift is needed to drive a transformation towards sustainable food systems. Civil society groups are key actors in driving policy change, but little is known about the strategies that these groups are using in Australia to drive change. This research investigated how civil society stakeholders in Victoria advocate for sustainable food systems, including the role of alliances in their work and how the policy context shapes their work. The research used semi-structured interviews with civil society stakeholders, supplemented with documentary analysis, to explore the strategies used to advocate for sustainable food systems in Victoria. The research found that policy advocacy was not a current priority for many stakeholders, due to past disappointments with attempts to influence policy, and due to a lack of resources. Those stakeholders undertaking policy advocacy generally reacted to policy threats, rather than undertaking proactive and strategic policy actions. Many stakeholders focused on building an alternative food system rather than policy advocacy. The research concluded that while these actions contribute to a more sustainable food system, there is currently a lack of focus on proactive and strategic advocacy for policy change.
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ItemAssessing Forest Stewardship Council certification implementation for smallholder groups in Vietnam( 2016)Forest Certification Stewardship Council (FSC) has been globally recognized as an effective tool to manage forests sustainably. While FSC has been widely accepted by large forest companies in developed countries, the developing country witness the slow uptake of forest certification, especially for smallholders due to their financial constraints and low expertise on forestry. Recognizing the importance of smallholders in the forestry sector and their constraints, FSC develop the forest group certification to encourage smallholders participating in the FSC certification. This study aims to assess the implement the forest certification group scheme to smallholders in Vietnam. In order to do that, the study focuses to examine barriers and enabling factors to implement the forest certification group scheme to smallholders by using desktop review, online surveys and in- depth telephone interview methods. The study found that the common barriers come from the government, including land tenure issues, inadequate policies and deficient resources on forest sustainable management. In addition, weak management capacities, low expertise on forestry and financial constraints are challenges to sustainable operations of smallholder groups. Despites these barriers, there are existing factors which could enable to implement the FSC group certification for smallholders in Vietnam. They are market demands of FSC-certified wood, NGO supports and governmental strategies to develop forest sustainable management. Through the concept of social capital, roles of NGO, the government and wood companies are engaging smallholders to the certification scheme. In addition to solutions often cited in literature, including increasing farmers’ awareness of forestry and certification, and strengthening policies and programs on forest certification, the research suggests that strengthening social capital of smallholder groups through bonding, bridging and increasing trust between members is a new pathway to promote the FSC for smallholder groups.