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Asia Institute - Research Publications
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ItemBold Strategy or Irrational Exuberance: Can China's Fiscal Foundation Support the Belt and Road Initiative?Wong, C ; Fingar, T ; Oi, J (Stanford University Press, 2020)This chapter examines the economic rationale and finances of the Belt and Road Initiative, a signature program in Xi Jinping's assertive foreign policy that aims to build multidimensional networks linking more than sixty countries and costing trillions of dollars. The BRI was conceived during the decade-long fiscal expansion that began at the turn of the century, and the question is whether it remains affordable under slower growth. At this stage in its development, China must manage the program prudently to avoid saddling banks with bad loans from failed projects. As ever, the decentralized system remains the Achilles' heel, reflected in the gap between official statements of expenditure and figures compiled from bank lending and program announcements. Recent fiscal reforms have strengthened the government's ability to rein in local governments but provide little protection against risks from an overly ambitious foreign policy agenda.
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ItemMore Sticks and Fewer Carrots? Looking Ahead to Implementation of Environmental Policy Under the ‘New Normal’Wong, C ; Stavins, RN ; Stowe, R (Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School for Science and International Affairs, 2020-02)
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ItemManaging across levels of government: The challenge of pension reform in ChinaWong, C ; Yuan, R ; Kim, J ; Dougherty, S (OECD, 2020)The People’s Republic of China is facing a “population ageing tsunami”, with the share of the population aged over 65 expected to double between 2010 and 2030. Reforming the social security system to improve coverage, sustainability and equity is an urgent task for the government. This chapter examines the workings of the Urban Employee Scheme (UES), the main pension programme currently covering more than 400 million workers and retirees. Although nominally a national programme, the UES is a patchwork of pension pools, managed mostly at the city and county levels. Under fragmented management and weak oversight, the system is rife with underpayment and evasion and has stymied previous efforts by the central government to promote consolidation. This may finally change under top-down reforms implemented since 2013 that have strengthened governance and enforcement capacity. Improving equity and the long-term sustainability of the UES will also require extending coverage to younger migrant workers and strengthening their incentives for participation.
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ItemUncovering China’s Fiscal Stimulus Policies in the Budget ReportWong, C (EAI, 2020-07-06)
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ItemCOVID-19 highlights need to strengthen china’s social safety net (i): the unemployment insurance schemeWong, C ; Qian, J (East Asian Institute, 2020-12-24)
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ItemCOVID-19 highlights need to strengthen china’s social safety net (ii): the social assistance programmesWong, C ; Qian, J (EAI, 2020-12-24)
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ItemChina’s Post-Covid Goldilocks Budget – how big should it be?Wong, C (EAI, 2021-03-18)
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ItemFiscal reform in the Xi Jinping era and the state of local public financeWong, C (East Asian Institute, NUS, 2021-07-09)
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ItemWhat’s up with China’s fiscal policy? The puzzle of recent budget dataWong, C (East Asian Institute, NUS, 2021-09-07)China’s budget data for the first seven months of 2021 sprang some surprises. First, the budget nearly perfectly balances, with ordinary budget revenues amounting to RMB13.77 trillion and expenditures to RMB13.79 trillion. If this trend were to hold for the year, it would mark the first time since 1985 that the government’s general budget has been in or near balance. MOF (Ministry of Finance)-reported expenditures were 3.3% higher than that for the same period in 2020. Due to the disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic last year, a better comparison is with the pre-COVID budget of 2019, against which the 2021 expenditures were 1% lower for the same period, with a deep 12.5% cut in central government spending and a small 1% increase in local government spending.
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ItemChina’s 2022 budget and the fate of local government financeWong, C (East Asian Institute, NUS, 2022-04-07)