Architecture, Building and Planning - Research Publications
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ItemModelling SARS-CoV-2 disease progression in Australia and New Zealand: an account of an agent-based approach to support public health decision-making(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2022-06)OBJECTIVE: In 2020, we developed a public health decision-support model for mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Australia and New Zealand. Having demonstrated its capacity to describe disease progression patterns during both countries' first waves of infections, we describe its utilisation in Victoria in underpinning the State Government's then 'RoadMap to Reopening'. METHODS: Key aspects of population demographics, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism, timing, and effect of non-pharmaceutical public health policies responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries were represented in an agent-based model. We considered scenarios related to the imposition and removal of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the estimated progression of SARS-CoV-2 infections. RESULTS: Wave 1 results suggested elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was possible in both countries given sustained public adherence to social restrictions beyond 60 days' duration. However, under scenarios of decaying adherence to restrictions, a second wave of infections (Wave 2) was predicted in Australia. In Victoria's second wave, we estimated in early September 2020 that a rolling 14-day average of <5 new cases per day was achievable on or around 26 October. Victoria recorded a 14-day rolling average of 4.6 cases per day on 25 October. CONCLUSIONS: Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 transmission represented in faithfully constructed agent-based models can be replicated in the real world. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Agent-based public health policy models can be helpful to support decision-making in novel and complex unfolding public health crises.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe perils of perfect performance; considering the effects of introducing autonomous vehicles on rates of car vs cyclist conflict(Taylor & Francis, 2020-01-01)How humans will adapt and respond to the introduction of autonomous vehicles (AVs) is uncertain. This study used an agent-based model to explore how AVs, human-operated vehicles, and cyclists might interact based on the introduction of flawlessly performing AVs. Under two separate experimental conditions, results of experiment 1 showed that, despite no conflicts occurring between cyclists and AVs, modelled conflicts among human-operated cars and cyclists increased with the introduction of AVs due to cyclists’ adjusted expectations of the behaviour and capability of human-operated and autonomous cars. Similarly, when human-operated cars were replaced with AVs over time in experiment 2, cyclist conflict rates did not follow a linear reduction consistent with the replacement rate but decreased more slowly in the early stages of replacement before 50% substitution. It is concluded that, although flawlessly performing AVs might reduce total conflicts, the introduction of AVs into a transport system where humans adjust to the behaviour and risk presented by AVs could create new sources of error that offset some of AVs assumed safety benefits.
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ItemIdentifying safe intersection design through unsupervised feature extraction from satellite imagery(WILEY, 2021-03)Abstract The World Health Organization has listed the design of safer intersections as a key intervention to reduce global road trauma. This article presents the first study to systematically analyze the design of all intersections in a large country, based on aerial imagery and deep learning. Approximately 900,000 satellite images were downloaded for all intersections in Australia and customized computer vision techniques emphasized the road infrastructure. A deep autoencoder extracted high‐level features, including the intersection's type, size, shape, lane markings, and complexity, which were used to cluster similar designs. An Australian telematics data set linked infrastructure design to driving behaviors captured during 66 million kilometers of driving. This showed more frequent hard acceleration events (per vehicle) at four‐ than three‐way intersections, relatively low hard deceleration frequencies at T‐intersections, and consistently low average speeds on roundabouts. Overall, domain‐specific feature extraction enabled the identification of infrastructure improvements that could result in safer driving behaviors, potentially reducing road trauma.
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ItemThe "Paris-end" of Town?: Deriving Urban Typologies Using Three Imagery Types(MDPI, 2020)Urban typologies allow areas to be categorised according to form and the social, demographic, and political uses of the areas. The use of these typologies and finding similarities and dissimilarities between cities enables better targeted interventions for improved health, transport, and environmental outcomes in urban areas. A better understanding of local contexts can also assist in applying lessons learned from other cities. Constructing urban typologies at a global scale through traditional methods, such as functional or network analysis, requires the collection of data across multiple political districts, which can be inconsistent and then require a level of subjective classification. To overcome these limitations, we use neural networks to analyse millions of images of urban form (consisting of street view, satellite imagery, and street maps) to find shared characteristics between the largest 1692 cities in the world. The comparison city of Paris is used as an exemplar and we perform a case study using two Australian cities, Melbourne and Sydney, to determine if a "Paris-end" of town exists or can be found in these cities using these three big data imagery sets. The results show specific advantages and disadvantages of each type of imagery in constructing urban typologies. Neural networks trained with map imagery will be highly influenced by the structural mix of roads, public transport, and green and blue space. Satellite imagery captures a combination of both urban form and decorative and natural details. The use of street view imagery emphasises the features of a human-scaled visual geography of streetscapes. However, for both satellite and street view imagery to be highly effective, a reduction in scale and more aggressive pre-processing might be required in order to reduce detail and create greater abstraction in the imagery.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA global analysis of urban design types and road transport injury: an image processing study.(Elsevier, 2020-01-01)BACKGROUND: Death and injury due to motor vehicle crashes is the world's fifth leading cause of mortality and morbidity. City and urban designs might play a role in mitigating the global burden of road transport injury to an extent that has not been captured by traditional safe system approaches. We aimed to determine the relationship between urban design and road trauma across the globe. METHODS: Applying a combined convolutional neural network and graph-based approach, 1692 cities capturing one third of the world's population were classified into types based on urban design characteristics represented in sample maps. Associations between identified city types, characteristics contained within sample maps, and the burden of road transport injury as measured by disability adjusted life-years were estimated through univariate and multivariate analyses, controlling for the influence of economic activity. FINDINGS: Between Mar 1, 2017, and Dec 24, 2018, nine global city types based on a final sample of 1632 cities were identified. Burden of road transport injury was an estimated two-times higher (risk ratio 2·05, 95% CI 1·84-2·27) for the poorest performing city type compared with the best performing city type, culminating in an estimated loss of 8·71 (8·08-9·25) million disability-adjusted life-years per year attributable to suboptimal urban design. City types that featured a greater proportion of railed public transport networks combined with dense road networks characterised by smaller blocks showed the lowest rates of road traffic injury. INTERPRETATION: This study highlights the important role that city and urban design plays in mitigating road transport injury burden at a global scale. It is recommended that road and transport safety efforts promote urban design that features characteristics inherent in identified high-performance city types including higher density road infrastructure and high rates of public transit. FUNDING: See acknowledgments.
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ItemSky pixel detection in outdoor imagery using an adaptive algorithm and machine learning(Elsevier, 2019)Computer vision techniques enable automated detection of sky pixels in outdoor imagery. In urban climate, sky detection is an important first step in gathering information about urban morphology and sky view factors. However, obtaining accurate results remains challenging and becomes even more complex using imagery captured under a variety of lighting and weather conditions. To address this problem, we present a new sky pixel detection system demonstrated to produce accurate results using a wide range of outdoor imagery types. Images are processed using a selection of mean-shift segmentation, K-means clustering, and Sobel filters to mark sky pixels in the scene. The algorithm for a specific image is chosen by a convolutional neural network, trained with 25,000 images from the Skyfinder data set, reaching 82% accuracy for the top three classes. This selection step allows the sky marking to follow an adaptive process and to use different techniques and parameters to best suit a particular image. An evaluation of fourteen different techniques and parameter sets shows that no single technique can perform with high accuracy across varied Skyfinder and Google Street View data sets. However, by using our adaptive process, large increases in accuracy are observed. The resulting system is shown to perform better than other published techniques.
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ItemReal-time monitoring of driver drowsiness on mobile platforms using 3D neural networks(SPRINGER LONDON LTD, 2020-07)Abstract Driver drowsiness increases crash risk, leading to substantial road trauma each year. Drowsiness detection methods have received considerable attention, but few studies have investigated the implementation of a detection approach on a mobile phone. Phone applications reduce the need for specialised hardware and hence, enable a cost-effective roll-out of the technology across the driving population. While it has been shown that three-dimensional (3D) operations are more suitable for spatiotemporal feature learning, current methods for drowsiness detection commonly use frame-based, multi-step approaches. However, computationally expensive techniques that achieve superior results on action recognition benchmarks (e.g. 3D convolutions, optical flow extraction) create bottlenecks for real-time, safety-critical applications on mobile devices. Here, we show how depthwise separable 3D convolutions, combined with an early fusion of spatial and temporal information, can achieve a balance between high prediction accuracy and real-time inference requirements. In particular, increased accuracy is achieved when assessment requires motion information, for example, when sunglasses conceal the eyes. Further, a custom TensorFlow-based smartphone application shows the true impact of various approaches on inference times and demonstrates the effectiveness of real-time monitoring based on out-of-sample data to alert a drowsy driver. Our model is pre-trained on ImageNet and Kinetics and fine-tuned on a publicly available Driver Drowsiness Detection dataset. Fine-tuning on large naturalistic driving datasets could further improve accuracy to obtain robust in-vehicle performance. Overall, our research is a step towards practical deep learning applications, potentially preventing micro-sleeps and reducing road trauma.
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ItemEvidence for the 'safety in density' effect for cyclists: validation of agent-based modelling results(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2019-10)The safety in numbers (SiN) effect for cyclists is widely observed but remains poorly understood. Although most studies investigating the SiN phenomenon have focused on behavioural adaptation to 'numbers' of cyclists in the road network, previous work in simulated environments has suggested SiN may instead be driven by increases in local cyclist spatial density, which prevents drivers from attempting to move through groups of oncoming cyclists. This study therefore set out to validate the results of prior simulation studies in a real-world environment. Time-gap analysis of cyclists passing through an intersection was conducted using 5 hours of video observation of a single intersection in the city of Melbourne, Australia, where motorists were required to 'yield' to oncoming cyclists. Results demonstrated that potential collisions between motor vehicles and cyclists reduced with increasing cyclists per minute passing through the intersection. These results successfully validate those observed under simulated conditions, supporting evidence of a proposed causal mechanism related to safety in density rather than SiN, per se. Implications of these results for transportation planners, cyclists and transportation safety researchers are discussed, suggesting that increased cyclist safety could be achieved through directing cyclists towards focused, strategic corridors rather than dispersed across a network.
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ItemIdentifying behavioural change among drivers using Long Short-Term Memory recurrent neural networks(Elsevier, 2018)Globally, motor vehicle crashes account for over 1.2 million fatalities per year and are the leading cause of death for people aged 15–29 years. The majority of road crashes are caused by human error, with risk heightened among young and novice drivers learning to negotiate the complexities of the road environment. Direct feedback has been shown to have a positive impact on driving behaviour. Methods that could detect behavioural changes and therefore, positively reinforce safer driving during the early stages of driver licensing could have considerable road safety benefit. A new methodology is presented combining in-vehicle telematics technology, providing measurements forming a personalised driver profile, with neural networks to identify changes in driving behaviour. Using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks, individual drivers are identified based on their pattern of acceleration, deceleration and exceeding the speed limit. After model calibration, new, real-time data of the driver is supplied to the LSTM and, by monitoring prediction performance, one can assess whether a (positive or negative) change in driving behaviour is occurring over time. The paper highlights that the approach is robust to different neural network structures, data selections, calibration settings, and methodologies to select benchmarks for safe and unsafe driving. Presented case studies show additional model applications for investigating changes in driving behaviour among individuals following or during specific events (e.g., receipt of insurance renewal letters) and time periods (e.g., driving during holiday periods). The application of the presented methodology shows potential to form the basis of timely provision of direct feedback to drivers by telematics-based insurers. Such feedback may prevent internalisation of new, risky driving habits contributing to crash risk, potentially reducing deaths and injuries among young drivers as a result.