Architecture, Building and Planning - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableFEEDBACK trial - A randomised control trial to investigate the effect of personalised feedback and financial incentives on reducing the incidence of road crashes(BMC, 2023-10-18)BACKGROUND: Road crashes continue to pose a significant threat to global health. Young drivers aged between 18 and 25 are over-represented in road injury and fatality statistics, especially the first six months after obtaining their license. This study is the first multi-centre two-arm parallel-group individually randomised controlled trial (the FEEDBACK Trial) that will examine whether the delivery of personalised driver feedback plus financial incentives is superior to no feedback and no financial incentives in reducing motor vehicle crashes among young drivers (18 to 20 years) during the first year of provisional licensing. METHODS: A total of 3,610 young drivers on their provisional licence (P1, the first-year provisional licensing) will participate in the trial over 28 weeks, including a 4-week baseline, 20-week intervention and 4-week post-intervention period. The primary outcome of the study will be police-reported crashes over the 20-week intervention period and the 4-week post-intervention period. Secondary outcomes include driving behaviours such as speeding and harsh braking that contribute to road crashes, which will be attained weekly from mobile telematics delivered to a smartphone app. DISCUSSION: Assuming a positive finding associated with personalised driver feedback and financial incentives in reducing road crashes among young drivers, the study will provide important evidence to support policymakers in introducing the intervention(s) as a key strategy to mitigate the risks associated with the burden of road injury among this vulnerable population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered under the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) - ACTRN12623000387628p on April 17, 2023.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA systematic scoping review of methods for estimating link-level bicycling volumes(TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2023-07-04)
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ItemReconsidering the Safety in Numbers Effect for Vulnerable Road Users: An Application of Agent-Based Modeling(Taylor and Francis Group, 2015)OBJECTIVE: Increasing levels of active transport provide benefits in relation to chronic disease and emissions reduction but may be associated with an increased risk of road trauma. The safety in numbers (SiN) effect is often regarded as a solution to this issue; however, the mechanisms underlying its influence are largely unknown. We aimed to (1) replicate the SiN effect within a simple, simulated environment and (2) vary bicycle density within the environment to better understand the circumstances under which SiN applies. METHODS: Using an agent-based modeling approach, we constructed a virtual transport system that increased the number of bicycles from 9% to 35% of total vehicles over a period of 1,000 time units while holding the number of cars in the system constant. We then repeated this experiment under conditions of progressively decreasing bicycle density. RESULTS: We demonstrated that the SiN effect can be reproduced in a virtual environment, closely approximating the exponential relationships between cycling numbers and the relative risk of collision as shown in observational studies. The association, however, was highly contingent upon bicycle density. The relative risk of collisions between cars and bicycles with increasing bicycle numbers showed an association that is progressively linear at decreasing levels of density. CONCLUSIONS: Agent-based modeling may provide a useful tool for understanding the mechanisms underpinning the relationships previously observed between volume and risk under the assumptions of SiN. The SiN effect may apply only under circumstances in which bicycle density also increases over time. Additional mechanisms underpinning the SiN effect, independent of behavioral adjustment by drivers, are explored.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableIsolating the impacts of urban form and fabric from geography on urban heat and human thermal comfort(Elsevier, 2022-10-01)Public health risks resulting from urban heat in cities are increasing due to rapid urbanisation and climate change, motivating closer attention to urban heat mitigation and adaptation strategies that enable climate-sensitive urban design and development. These strategies incorporate four key factors influencing heat stress in cities: the urban form (morphology of vegetated and built surfaces), urban fabric, urban function (including human activities), and background climate and regional geographic settings (e.g. topography and distance to water bodies). The first two factors can be modified and redesigned as urban heat mitigation strategies (e.g. changing the albedo of surfaces, replacing hard surfaces with pervious vegetated surfaces, or increasing canopy cover). Regional geographical settings of cities, on the other hand, cannot be modified and while human activities can be modified, it often requires holistic behavioural and policy modifications and the impacts of these can be difficult to quantify. When evaluating the effectiveness of urban heat mitigation strategies in observational or traditional modelling studies, it can be difficult to separate the impacts of modifications to the built and natural forms from the interactions of the geographic influences, limiting the universality of results. To address this, we introduce a new methodology to determine the influence of urban form and fabric on thermal comfort, by utilising a comprehensive combination of possible urban forms, an urban morphology data source, and micro-climate modelling. We perform 9814 simulations covering a wide range of realistic built and natural forms (building, roads, grass, and tree densities as well as building and tree heights) to determine their importance and influence on thermal environments in urban canyons without geographical influences. We show that higher daytime air temperatures and thermal comfort indices are strongly driven by increased street fractions, with maximum air temperatures increases of up to 10 and 15 °C as street fractions increase from 10% (very narrow street canyons and/or extensive vegetation cover) to 80 and 90% (wide street canyons). Up to 5 °C reductions in daytime air temperatures are seen with increasing grass and tree fractions from zero (fully urban) to complete (fully natural) coverage. Similar patterns are seen with the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), with increasing street fractions of 80% and 90% driving increases of 6 and 12 °C, respectively. We then apply the results at a city-wide scale, generating heat maps of several Australian cities showing the impacts of present day urban form and fabric. The resulting method allows mitigation strategies to be tested on modifiable urban form factors isolated from geography, topography, and local weather conditions, factors that cannot easily be modified.
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ItemDeveloping urban biking typologies: Quantifying the complex interactions of bicycle ridership, bicycle network and built environment characteristics(SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2023-01)Extensive research has been conducted exploring associations between built environment characteristics and biking. However, these approaches have often lacked the ability to understand the interactions of the built environment, population and bicycle ridership. To overcome these limitations, this study aimed to develop novel urban biking typologies using unsupervised machine learning methods. We conducted a retrospective analysis of travel surveys, bicycle infrastructure and population and land use characteristics in the Greater Melbourne region, Australia. To develop the urban biking typology, we used a k-medoids clustering method. Analyses revealed 5 clusters. We highlight areas with high bicycle network density and a high proportion of trips made by bike (Cluster 1; reflecting 12% of the population of Greater Melbourne, but 57% of all bike trips) and areas with high off-road and on-road bicycle network length, but a low proportion of trips made by bike (Cluster 4, reflecting 23% of the population of Greater Melbourne and 13% of all bike trips). Our novel approach to developing an urban biking typology enabled the exploration of the interaction of bicycle ridership, the bicycle network, population and land use characteristics. Such approaches are important in advancing our understanding of bicycling behaviour, but further research is required to understand the generalisability of these findings to other settings.
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ItemThe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on air pollution: A global assessment using machine learning techniques(TURKISH NATL COMMITTEE AIR POLLUTION RES & CONTROL-TUNCAP, 2022-06)In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, most countries implemented public health ordinances that resulted in restricted mobility and a resultant change in air quality. This has provided an opportunity to quantify the extent to which carbon-based transport and industrial activity affect air quality. However, quantification of these complex effects has proven to be difficult, depending on the stringency of restrictions, country-specific emission source profiles, long-term trends and meteorological effects on atmospheric chemistry, emission levels and in-flow from nearby countries. In this study, confounding factors were disentangled for a direct comparison of pandemic-related reductions in absolute pollutions levels, globally. The non-linear relationships between atmospheric processes and daily ground-level NO 2 , PM10, PM2.5 and O 3 measurements were captured in city- and pollutant-specific XGBoost models for over 700 cities, adjusting for weather, seasonality and trends. City-level modelling allowed adaptation to the distinct topography, urban morphology, climate and atmospheric conditions for each city, individually, as the weather variables that were most predictive varied across cities. Pollution forecasts for 2020 in absence of a pandemic were generated based on weather and formed an ensemble for country-level pollution reductions. Findings were robust to modelling assumptions and consistent with various published case studies. NO 2 reduced most in China, Europe and India, following severe government restrictions as part of the initial lockdowns. Reductions were highly correlated with changes in mobility levels, especially trips to transit stations, workplaces, retail and recreation venues. Further, NO 2 did not fully revert to pre-pandemic levels in 2020. Ambient PM2.5 pollution, which has severe adverse health consequences, reduced most in China and India. Since positive health effects could be offset to some extent by prolonged exposure to indoor pollution, alternative transport initiatives could prove to be an important pathway towards better health outcomes in these countries. Increased O 3 levels during initial lockdowns have been documented widely. However, our analyses also found a subsequent reduction in O 3 for many countries below what was expected based on meteorological conditions during summer months (e.g., China, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Poland, Turkey). The effects in periods with high O 3 levels are especially important for the development of effective mitigation strategies to improve health outcomes.
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ItemModelling SARS-CoV-2 disease progression in Australia and New Zealand: an account of an agent-based approach to support public health decision-making(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2022-06)OBJECTIVE: In 2020, we developed a public health decision-support model for mitigating the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections in Australia and New Zealand. Having demonstrated its capacity to describe disease progression patterns during both countries' first waves of infections, we describe its utilisation in Victoria in underpinning the State Government's then 'RoadMap to Reopening'. METHODS: Key aspects of population demographics, disease, spatial and behavioural dynamics, as well as the mechanism, timing, and effect of non-pharmaceutical public health policies responses on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in both countries were represented in an agent-based model. We considered scenarios related to the imposition and removal of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the estimated progression of SARS-CoV-2 infections. RESULTS: Wave 1 results suggested elimination of community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was possible in both countries given sustained public adherence to social restrictions beyond 60 days' duration. However, under scenarios of decaying adherence to restrictions, a second wave of infections (Wave 2) was predicted in Australia. In Victoria's second wave, we estimated in early September 2020 that a rolling 14-day average of <5 new cases per day was achievable on or around 26 October. Victoria recorded a 14-day rolling average of 4.6 cases per day on 25 October. CONCLUSIONS: Elimination of SARS-CoV-2 transmission represented in faithfully constructed agent-based models can be replicated in the real world. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: Agent-based public health policy models can be helpful to support decision-making in novel and complex unfolding public health crises.
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ItemCity Design and the Transmission of COVID-19(CRC Press, 2021-06-08)This chapter explores the influence of these land-use characteristics in each of the city designs on the transmission of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and hence the number of positive cases of COVID-19. It describes the role of city design with respect to the transmission of COVID-19 and particularly, on transmission of the virus in cities identified with high density road networks and public transit. The chapter discusses the potential policy implications arising from certain city designs and infectious disease out-breaks. The travel restriction on January 23, 2020, in Wuhan City and the following lock-down in the whole Hubei Province and nearby cities managed to slow the transmission of the virus in China. The opportunity to classify cities using objective data from standardised maps highlights the utility of spatial data. Community resilience is the ability of communities/cities to respond positively to crises such as the pandemic.
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ItemEvaluation of Urban Design Qualities across Five Urban Typologies in Hanoi(MDPI AG, 2021-12-01)Urban design has been shown to play a vital role in promoting the health and wellbeing of urban citizens. However, studies of microscale urban design are underrepresented in comparison with macroscale urban design, especially from low- and middle-income countries in Asia, where urban forms are traditionally compact, complex and with multiple layers and varied urban typologies. The study evaluated microscale urban design qualities of streets (n = 40) across five urban typologies in Hanoi—a typical city in a low- and middle-income country in Asia. The study found that urban typologies and their characteristics have particular impacts on urban design qualities. Old and high-density urban typologies tend to report higher urban design qualities than modern and low-density typologies. Urban design qualities are also significantly associated with the number of pedestrians on the streets. Compared to Western cities, the urban design qualities in Hanoi are substantially different, especially in terms of imageability and complexity, reflecting the differences in urban design and cultural context between cities from various regions. Overall, the study contributes to our understanding of urban design circumstances in Hanoi, providing policymakers, planners, urban designers and architects with important insights for sustainable urban design policies, strategies and interventions.