Architecture, Building and Planning - Research Publications
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ItemTerrestrial Lidar Reveals New Information About Habitats Provided by Large Old Trees(Elsevier, 2024)Large old trees have been described as keystone habitats for several species. However, current research does not fully explain why these species show a preference for such trees. In this study, we combined field observations of birds with terrestrial lidar scans and computational feature-recognition to describe habitats provided by trees at an unprecedented level of detail. We conducted field observations of birds at 62 trees and used parameters including branch angle, branch diameter, branch state (living or dead), and trunk diameter at breast height (DBH) to develop a generalised linear mixed model (GLMM) that could predict which types of branch birds are more likely to visit. We then quantified angles, diameters, and states of 78,006 branch objects representing the complete canopies of 16 trees. By combining these two models we predicted that large trees (>80 cm DBH) contained, on average, 383 m of branches that were highly suitable for birds (i.e., the predicted probability of observing a bird was ≥0.5), which was more than seven times the average length of highly suitable branches provided by medium trees (51–80 cm DBH). Only one of the sampled medium trees contained highly suitable branches. Small trees (<50 cm DBH) contained none. Our analysis provides new knowledge about characteristics that make large old trees disproportionately attractive to birds and presents a novel method of assessment that can apply to other complex habitat structures.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableAustralians' perceptions of the potential effects of increased access to alcohol via autonomous delivery services: A multi-method study(PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2024-01)INTRODUCTION: Rapid technological change will affect how people access harmful products. For example, automated delivery services are forecast to provide fast and affordable product access options for those purchasing alcohol. Information about the potential impacts of such innovations on alcohol purchase and consumption behaviors is lacking. The aim of this study was to explore how consumers may respond to future scenarios where alcohol is available via a range of autonomous alcohol delivery options. METHODS: In a two-stage process, qualitative individual interviews (n = 100) and a quantitative online survey (n = 1078) were conducted with Australians aged 18+ years. Quotas were used to achieve national representation on key demographic variables. Participants were exposed to scenarios outlining how autonomous vehicles are likely to be used for alcohol deliveries in the future and asked to discuss their intentions to use such services and their perceptions of any impacts on alcohol consumption at a societal level. RESULTS: Automated alcohol deliveries were generally considered to be highly convenient and therefore likely to be popular. Around one-third (37%) of survey respondents reported an intention to use such automated alcohol delivery services once they are available and almost half (47%) expected overall levels of alcohol consumption to increase across the population. CONCLUSION: Given potential levels of uptake, careful consideration needs to be given to the development and implementation of appropriate policy and regulatory frameworks to minimize the increased risk of alcohol-related harm associated with enhanced alcohol availability resulting from the emerging availability of autonomous delivery services.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableForecasting emergent risks in advanced AI systems: an analysis of a future road transport management system(TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2023-11-02)Artificial Intelligence (AI) is being increasingly implemented within road transport systems worldwide. Next generation of AI, Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) is imminent, and is anticipated to be more powerful than current AI. AGI systems will have a broad range of abilities and be able to perform multiple cognitive tasks akin to humans that will likely produce many expected benefits, but also potential risks. This study applied the EAST Broken Links approach to forecast the functioning of an AGI system tasked with managing a road transport system and identify potential risks. In total, 363 risks were identified that could have adverse impacts on the stated goals of safety, efficiency, environmental sustainability, and economic performance of the road system. Further, risks beyond the stated goals were identified; removal from human control, mismanaging public relations, and self-preservation. A diverse set of systemic controls will be required when designing, implementing, and operating future advanced technologies.Practitioner summary: This study demonstrated the utility of HFE methods for formally considering risks associated with the design, implementation, and operation of future technologies. This study has implications for AGI research, design, and development to ensure safe and ethical AGI implementation.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableAnticipated Transport Choices in a World Featuring Autonomous Transport Options(MDPI, 2023-07)(1) Background: The automation of transport systems is well underway; however, it is unclear how this will affect people’s mobility choices. Changes in these choices have implications for health and the sustainability and efficiency of transport systems, making it important to understand how the advent of autonomous vehicles might affect people’s transport behaviors. The aim of the present study was to address this knowledge gap in the Australian context. (2) Methods: Respondents reported their demographic information, current transport behaviors, the perceived importance of transport-related factors, and attitudes toward autonomous vehicles. They then read a vignette describing a future scenario involving autonomous vehicles that was informed by expert stakeholders. After reading the vignette, the respondents selected those transport options that they would anticipate using in the depicted scenario. Descriptive analyses were conducted to examine changes in transport choices, while regression models were employed to identify the predictors of choices in the future scenario. (3) Results: Most respondents envisaged making greater use of active, shared, and public transport options in an autonomous future, compared to their current use of these options. The intended use of private transport options halved. The most consistent predictor for selecting a certain mode of transport was the current use of that option or its non-autonomous equivalent. (4) Conclusion: Overall, favorable changes in the envisaged use of transport were observed for the hypothetical scenario, which was characterized by improved public transport, a practical active transport infrastructure, and relatively cheap shared autonomous vehicles. If policymakers can act to realize these outcomes, the autonomation of transport is likely to lead to positive societal change.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableFEEDBACK trial - A randomised control trial to investigate the effect of personalised feedback and financial incentives on reducing the incidence of road crashes(BMC, 2023-10-18)BACKGROUND: Road crashes continue to pose a significant threat to global health. Young drivers aged between 18 and 25 are over-represented in road injury and fatality statistics, especially the first six months after obtaining their license. This study is the first multi-centre two-arm parallel-group individually randomised controlled trial (the FEEDBACK Trial) that will examine whether the delivery of personalised driver feedback plus financial incentives is superior to no feedback and no financial incentives in reducing motor vehicle crashes among young drivers (18 to 20 years) during the first year of provisional licensing. METHODS: A total of 3,610 young drivers on their provisional licence (P1, the first-year provisional licensing) will participate in the trial over 28 weeks, including a 4-week baseline, 20-week intervention and 4-week post-intervention period. The primary outcome of the study will be police-reported crashes over the 20-week intervention period and the 4-week post-intervention period. Secondary outcomes include driving behaviours such as speeding and harsh braking that contribute to road crashes, which will be attained weekly from mobile telematics delivered to a smartphone app. DISCUSSION: Assuming a positive finding associated with personalised driver feedback and financial incentives in reducing road crashes among young drivers, the study will provide important evidence to support policymakers in introducing the intervention(s) as a key strategy to mitigate the risks associated with the burden of road injury among this vulnerable population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered under the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) - ACTRN12623000387628p on April 17, 2023.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA systematic scoping review of methods for estimating link-level bicycling volumes(TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2023-07-04)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableManaging the risks associated with technological disruption in the road transport system: a control structure modelling approach(TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2024-04-02)Road transport is experiencing disruptive change from new first-of-a-kind technologies. While such technologies offer safety and operational benefits, they also pose new risks. It is critical to proactively identify risks during the design, development and testing of new technologies. The Systems Theoretic Accident Model and Processes (STAMP) method analyses the dynamic structure in place to manage safety risks. This study applied STAMP to develop a control structure model for emerging technologies in the Australian road transport system and identified control gaps. The control structure shows the actors responsible for managing risks associated with first-of-a-kind technologies and the existing control and feedback mechanisms. Gaps identified related to controls (e.g. legislation) and feedback mechanisms (e.g. monitoring for behavioural adaptation). The study provides an example of how STAMP can be used to identify control structure gaps requiring attention to support the safe introduction of new technologies.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe inexorable rise of automated food deliveries and potential anticipatory policy actions(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2023-08)OBJECTIVE: Food deliveries to consumers using autonomous vehicles are forecast to become commonplace in Australia and globally. The aims of this study were to (i) explore the anticipated nature of AV food delivery services in Australia and (ii) identify available policy options to optimise positive outcomes and minimise any negative consequences for health and well-being. METHODS: In total, 36 interviews were conducted with 40 expert stakeholders across a range of relevant sectors including transport, urban planning, health and telecommunications. Interviewees discussed the ways in which automated food deliveries are likely to be implemented and the potential implications for lifestyles and health. RESULTS: The interviewees expected automated food deliveries to constitute an extension of current trends towards online food ordering and rapid home deliveries, with potential adverse implications for diet quality at the population level. CONCLUSIONS: Effective regulation of automated food and beverage delivery services will be needed to anticipate and address this emerging phenomenon. IMPLICATIONS FOR PUBLIC HEALTH: There is the opportunity to optimise the public health outcomes associated with automated food deliveries while minimising potential negative consequences through proactive anticipatory action. Delays could result in undesirable and irreversible changes to the food environment.
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ItemWho is to blame for crashes involving autonomous vehicles? Exploring blame attribution across the road transport system(TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2020-05-03)The introduction of fully autonomous vehicles is approaching. This warrants a re-consideration of road crash liability, given drivers will have diminished control. This study, underpinned by attribution theory, investigated blame attribution to different road transport system actors following crashes involving manually driven, semi-autonomous and fully autonomous vehicles. It also examined whether outcome severity alters blame ratings. 396 participants attributed blame to five actors (vehicle driver/user, pedestrian, vehicle, manufacturer, government) in vehicle-pedestrian crash scenarios. Different and unique patterns of blame were found across actors, according to the three vehicle types. In crashes involving fully autonomous vehicles, vehicle users received low blame, while vehicle manufacturers and government were highly blamed. There was no difference in the level of blame attributed between high and low severity crashes regarding vehicle type. However, the government received more blame in high severity crashes. The findings have implications for policy and legislation surrounding crash liability. Practitioner summary: Public views relating to blame and liability in transport accidents is a vital consideration for the introduction of new technologies such as autonomous vehicles. This study demonstrates how a systems ergonomics framework can assist to identify the implications of changing public opinion on blame for future road transport systems. Abbreviation: ANOVA: analysis of variance; DAT: defensive attribution theory; IV: independent variable.
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ItemReconsidering the Safety in Numbers Effect for Vulnerable Road Users: An Application of Agent-Based Modeling(Taylor and Francis Group, 2015)OBJECTIVE: Increasing levels of active transport provide benefits in relation to chronic disease and emissions reduction but may be associated with an increased risk of road trauma. The safety in numbers (SiN) effect is often regarded as a solution to this issue; however, the mechanisms underlying its influence are largely unknown. We aimed to (1) replicate the SiN effect within a simple, simulated environment and (2) vary bicycle density within the environment to better understand the circumstances under which SiN applies. METHODS: Using an agent-based modeling approach, we constructed a virtual transport system that increased the number of bicycles from 9% to 35% of total vehicles over a period of 1,000 time units while holding the number of cars in the system constant. We then repeated this experiment under conditions of progressively decreasing bicycle density. RESULTS: We demonstrated that the SiN effect can be reproduced in a virtual environment, closely approximating the exponential relationships between cycling numbers and the relative risk of collision as shown in observational studies. The association, however, was highly contingent upon bicycle density. The relative risk of collisions between cars and bicycles with increasing bicycle numbers showed an association that is progressively linear at decreasing levels of density. CONCLUSIONS: Agent-based modeling may provide a useful tool for understanding the mechanisms underpinning the relationships previously observed between volume and risk under the assumptions of SiN. The SiN effect may apply only under circumstances in which bicycle density also increases over time. Additional mechanisms underpinning the SiN effect, independent of behavioral adjustment by drivers, are explored.