Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemAccuracy of Clinician Predictions of Future Self-Harm: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Predictive Studies(WILEY, 2019-02)Assessment of a patient after hospital-treated self-harm or psychiatric hospitalization often includes a risk assessment, resulting in a classification of high risk versus low risk for a future episode of self-harm. Through systematic review and a series of meta-analyses looking at unassisted clinician risk classification (eight studies; N = 22,499), we found pooled estimates for sensitivity 0.31 (95% CI: 0.18-0.50), specificity 0.85 (0.75-0.92), positive predictive value 0.22 (0.21-0.23), and negative predictive value 0.89 (0.86-0.92). Clinician classification was too inaccurate to be clinically useful. After-care should therefore be allocated on the basis of a needs rather than risk assessment.
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ItemMasculinity and suicidal thinking (vol 52, pg 319, 2017)(SPRINGER HEIDELBERG, 2017-11)In the original publication there was an error in the calculation of scores for a number of the CMNI subscales and consequently the overall scale score. Recalculating the scores did not alter the substantive finding, and largely resulted in only small adjustments to estimates. Tables 1 and 2 are revised to show the corrected values, and revisions to the text reflecting these changes are noted.
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ItemAssessing the quality of media reporting of suicide news in India against World Health Organization guidelines: A content analysis study of nine major newspapers in Tamil Nadu(SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2018-09)OBJECTIVES: Suicide rates in India are among the highest in the world, resulting in an estimated 250,000 suicide deaths annually. How the media communicates with the Indian public on the topic of suicide has thus far gone without sufficient scrutiny. The objective of our study was to assess the quality of newspaper reporting of suicide-related news in India against World Health Organization suicide reporting guidelines. METHODS: We used content analysis to assess the quality of suicide reporting against World Health Organization guidelines in nine of the most highly read daily newspapers in the southern state of Tamil Nadu between June and December 2016. Five of the nine newspapers under review were in the top 20 most circulated daily newspapers in the country. RESULTS: A total of 1681 suicide articles were retrieved. The mean number of suicide articles per day per newspaper was 0.9%, and 54.5% of articles were 10 sentences or less. The vast majority (95.9%) of articles primarily focused on reporting specific suicide incidents. Harmful reporting practices were very common (e.g. a detailed suicide method was reported in 43.3% of articles), while helpful reporting practices were rare (e.g. just 2.5% gave contact details for a suicide support service). CONCLUSIONS: We observed that a daily diet of short and explicit suicide-related news was served up to readers of newspapers. Attempts should be made to understand the perspectives of media professionals in relation to suicide reporting, and to devise strategies to boost the positive contribution that media can make to suicide prevention.
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ItemPatterns and predictors of primary mental health service use following bushfire and flood disasters(CO-ACTION PUBLISHING, 2014)BACKGROUND: Mental health care services play an important role following disasters (Reifels et al., 2013). The aim of this study is to examine patterns and predictors of primary mental health care service use, following two major Australian natural disaster events. METHOD: Utilizing referral and session data from a national minimum dataset, descriptive and regression analyses were conducted to identify levels and predictors of the use of the Access to Allied Psychological Services (ATAPS) program over a 2-year period following two major Australian bushfire and flood/cyclone disasters. Predictor variables examined in negative binomial regression analysis included consumer (age, gender, household structure, previous mental health care history, and diagnosis) and event characteristics (disaster type). RESULTS: The bushfire disaster resulted in significantly greater service volume, with more than twice the number of referrals and nearly three times the number of sessions. Service delivery for both disasters peaked in the third quarter. Consumers affected by bushfires, diagnosed with depression, anxiety, or both of these disorders utilized sessions at significantly higher rates. CONCLUSIONS: The substantial demand for primary mental health services following disaster can vary with disaster type. Disaster type and need-based variables as key drivers of service use intensity indicate an equitable level of service use. Established usage patterns assist with estimating future service capacity requirements. Flexible referral pathways can enhance access to disaster mental health care. Future research should examine the impact of program- and agency-level factors on mental health service use and factors underpinning treatment non-adherence following disaster.
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ItemRelationship between Vehicle Emissions Laws and Incidence of Suicide by Motor Vehicle Exhaust Gas in Australia, 2001-06: An Ecological Analysis(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2010-01)BACKGROUND: Globally, suicide accounts for 5.2% of deaths among persons aged 15 to 44 years and its incidence is rising. In Australia, suicide rates peaked in 1997 and have been declining since. A substantial part of that decline stems from a plunge in suicides by one particular method: asphyxiation by motor vehicle exhaust gas (MVEG). Although MVEG remains the second most common method of suicide in Australia, its incidence decreased by nearly 70% in the decade to 2006. The extent to which this phenomenon has been driven by national laws in 1986 and 1999 that lowered permissible levels of carbon monoxide (CO) emissions is unknown. The objective of this ecological study was to test the relationship by investigating whether areas of Australia with fewer noxious vehicles per capita experienced lower rates of MVEG suicide. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We merged data on MVEG suicides in Australia (2001-06) with data on the number and age of vehicles in the national fleet, as well as socio-demographic data from the national census. Poisson regression was used to analyse the relationship between the incidence of suicide within two levels of geographical area--postcodes and statistical subdivisions (SSDs)--and the population density of pre-1986 and pre-1999 passenger vehicles in those areas. (There was a mean population of 8,302 persons per postcode in the study dataset and 87,413 persons per SSD.) The annual incidence of MVEG suicides nationwide decreased by 57% (from 2.6 per 100,000 in 2001 to 1.1 in 2006) during the study period; the population density of pre-1986 and pre-1999 vehicles decreased by 55% (from 14.2 per 100 persons in 2001 to 6.4 in 2006) and 26% (from 44.5 per 100 persons in 2001 to 32.9 in 2006), respectively. Area-level regression analysis showed that the suicide rates were significantly and positively correlated with the presence of older vehicles. A percentage point decrease in the population density of pre-1986 vehicles was associated with a 6% decrease (rate ratio [RR] = 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05-1.08) in the incidence of MVEG suicide within postcode areas; a percentage point decrease in the population density of pre-1999 vehicles was associated with a 3% decrease (RR = 1.03; 95% CI 1.02-1.04) in the incidence of MVEG suicide. CONCLUSIONS: Areas of Australia with fewer vehicles predating stringent CO emission laws experience lower rates of MVEG suicide. Although those emission laws were introduced primarily for environmental reasons, countries that lack them may miss the benefits of a serendipitous suicide prevention strategy. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
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ItemInfluencing the Conversation About Masculinity and Suicide: Evaluation of the Man Up Multimedia Campaign Using Twitter Data(JMIR Publications, 2017-10-09)Background: It has been suggested that some dominant aspects of traditional masculinity are contributing to the high suicide rates among Australian men. We developed a three-episode documentary called Man Up, which explores the complex relationship between masculinity and suicide and encourages men to question socially imposed rules about what it means to be a man and asks them to open up, express difficult emotions, and seek help if and when needed. We ran a three-phase social media campaign alongside the documentary using 5 channels (Twitter, Facebook, Instagram, YouTube, and Tumblr). Objective: This study aimed to examine the extent to which the Man Up Twitter campaign influenced the social media conversation about masculinity and suicide. Methods: We used Twitter insights data to assess the reach of and engagement with the campaign (using metrics on followers, likes, retweets, and impressions) and to determine the highest and lowest performing tweets in the campaign (using an aggregated performance measure of reactions). We used original content tweets to determine whether the campaign increased the volume of relevant Twitter conversations (aggregating the number of tweets for selected campaign hashtags over time), and we used a subset of these data to gain insight into the main content themes with respect to audience engagement. Results: The campaign generated a strong following that was engaged with the content of the campaign; over its whole duration, the campaign earned approximately 5000 likes and 2500 retweets and gained around 1,022,000 impressions. The highest performing tweets posted by the host included video footage and occurred during the most active period of the campaign (around the screening of the documentary). The volume of conversations in relation to commonly used hashtags (#MANUP, #ABCMANUP, #LISTENUP, and #SPEAKUP) grew in direct relation to the campaign activities, achieving strongest growth during the 3 weeks when the documentary was aired. Strongest engagement was found with content related to help-seeking, masculinity, and expressing emotions. A number of followers tweeted personal stories that revealed overwhelmingly positive perceptions of the content of the documentary and strongly endorsed its messages. Conclusions: The Man Up Twitter campaign triggered conversations about masculinity and suicide that otherwise may not have happened. For some, this may have been game-changing in terms of shifting attitudes toward expressing emotions and reaching out to others for help. The campaign was particularly effective in disseminating information and promoting conversations in real time, an advantage that it had over more traditional health promotion campaigns. This sort of approach could well be adapted to other areas of mental (and physical) health promotion campaigns to increase their reach and effectiveness.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableLink-me: Protocol for a randomised controlled trial of a systematic approach to stepped mental health care in primary care(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2019-03)Primary care in Australia is undergoing significant reform, with a particular focus on cost-effective tailoring of mental health care to individual needs. Link-me is testing whether a patient-completed Decision Support Tool (DST), which predicts future severity of depression and anxiety symptoms and triages individuals into care accordingly, is clinically effective and cost-effective relative to usual care. The trial is set in general practices, with English-speaking patients invited to complete eligibility screening in their general practitioner's waiting room. Eligible and consenting patients will then complete the DST assessment and are randomised and stratified according to predicted symptom severity. Participants allocated to the intervention arm will receive feedback on DST responses, select treatment priorities, assess motivation to change, and receive a severity-matched treatment recommendation (information about and links to low intensity services for those with mild symptoms, or assistance from a specially trained health professional (care navigator) for those with severe symptoms). All patients allocated to the comparison arm will receive usual GP care plus attention control. Primary (psychological distress) and secondary (depression, anxiety, quality of life, days out of role) outcomes will be assessed at 6 and 12 months. Differences in outcome means between trial arms both across and within symptom severity group will be examined using intention-to-treat analyses. Within trial and modelled economic evaluations will be conducted to determine the value for money of credentials of Link-me. Findings will be reported to the Federal Government to inform how mental health services across Australia are funded and delivered in the future.
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ItemSuicides in Young People in Ontario Following the Release of "13 Reasons Why"'(SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2019-11)OBJECTIVE: "13 Reasons Why," a Netflix series, included a controversial depiction of suicide that has raised fears about possible contagion. Studies of youth suicide in the United States found an increase on the order of 10% following release of the show, but this has not been replicated in other countries. This study aims to begin to address that gap by examining the relationship between the show's release and youth suicide in Canada's most populous province. METHODS: Suicides in young people (under the age of 30) in the province of Ontario following the show's release on March 31, 2017, were the outcome of interest. Time-series analyses were performed using data from January 2013 to March 2017 to predict expected deaths from April to December 2017 with a simple seasonal model (stationary R 2 = 0.732, Ljung-Box Q = 15.1, df = 16, P = 0.52, Bayesian information criterion = 3.09) providing the best fit/used for the primary analysis. RESULTS: Modeling predicted 224 suicides; however, 264 were observed corresponding to 40 more deaths or an 18% increase. In the primary analysis, monthly suicides exceeded the 95% confidence limit for 3 of the 9 months (May, July, and October). CONCLUSION: The statistical strength of the findings here is limited by small numbers; however, the results are in line with what has been observed in the United States and what would be expected if contagion were occurring. Further research in other locations is needed to increase confidence that the associations found here are causal.
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ItemThe impact of substance use on treatment as a compulsory patient(SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD, 2019-08)OBJECTIVES: This paper considers the impact of having a diagnosis of substance use disorder on the utilisation of compulsory orders under the Victorian Mental Health Act (2014). METHODS: We analysed the subsequent treatment episodes over 2 years of people who had been on a community treatment order for at least 3 months and determined the odds of a further treatment order if there was a diagnosis of substance use at or about the time the index community treatment order ended. RESULTS: An additional diagnosis of a substance use disorder was coded in 47.7% and was associated with significantly increased odds of a subsequent treatment order in the following 2 years for those with a main diagnosis of schizophrenia (AOR = 3.03, p<0.001) and 'other' disorders (AOR = 11.60, p=0.002). Those with a main diagnosis of mood disorder had a significant increase in odds for an inpatient treatment order if there was an additional substance use disorder diagnosis (AOR = 3.81, p=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: Having an additional diagnosis of substance use disorder was associated with increased likelihood of being placed on an order. This study supports greater emphasis being given to treatment of substance use concurrently with that of mental illness.