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Lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty from 2008-2017: A population-level analysis using national registry data

Daisuke Miura,

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

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Ljoudmila Busija,

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

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Richard S Page,

Barwon Centre for Orthopaedic Research and Education (B-CORE), Barwon Health, St John of God Hospital, School of Medicine, Deakin University, Geelong, Australia

Australian Orthpaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry, Adelaide, Australia

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Richard de Steiger,

Epworth HealthCare, Melbourne, Australia

Department of Surgery, The University of Melbourne, Melbourne, Australia

Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry, Adelaide, Australia

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Michelle Lorimer,

South Australian Health and Medical Research Institute (SAHMRI), Adelaide, Australia

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Ilana N Ackerman,

Corresponding Author

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Melbourne, Australia

Correspondence

Associate Professor Ilana Ackerman

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, Victoria 3004, Australia

Phone: +61 3 9903 0585 Fax: +61 3 9903 0556

Email: ilana.ackerman@monash.edu

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First published: 17 June 2020
Citations: 1
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This article has been accepted for publication and undergone full peer review but has not been through the copyediting, typesetting, pagination and proofreading process, which may lead to differences between this version and the Version of Record. Please cite this article as doi:10.1002/acr.24353

Abstract

Objective

To estimate the lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty in Australia and examine changes over time.

Methods

For this retrospective population-level analysis, de-identified individual-level data on all primary partial (PSA) and total shoulder (TSA) arthroplasty procedures performed in Australia from 2008-2017 (N=38,868) were obtained from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Population data and life tables were obtained from the Australian Bureau of Statistics. Lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty was calculated for each year using a standardised formula. Separate calculations were undertaken by sex, and for PSA and TSA.

Results

The lifetime risk of shoulder arthroplasty increased significantly over time. For males, this more than doubled from 0.78% (95%CI 0.73%-0.84%) in 2008 to 1.78% (95%CI 1.70%-1.86%) in 2017. Lifetime risk for females rose from 1.54% (95%CI 1.46%-1.62%) to 2.88% (95%CI 2.78%-2.99%) over the study period. This was predominantly driven by growth in lifetime risk of TSA. In contrast, lifetime risk of PSA decreased over time, from 0.25% (95%CI 0.22%-0.28%) in 2008 to 0.11% (95%CI 0.09%-0.13%) in 2017 for males, and from 0.55% (95%CI 0.51%-0.60%) to 0.11% (95%CI 0.09%-0.13%) for females.

Conclusions

By the end of 2017, lifetime risk of primary shoulder arthroplasty in Australia increased to 1 in 57 for males and 1 in 35 for females. Compared to declining PSA trends, there was substantial growth in TSA use over a decade. These data improve our understanding of the rising national burden of primary shoulder arthroplasty, and can assist in planning to meet future surgical demand.

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