Centre for Youth Mental Health - Research Publications
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ItemProteomic Biomarkers for the Prediction of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: A Multi-cohort Model Development Study(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2024-01-19)Psychosis risk prediction is one of the leading challenges in psychiatry. Previous investigations have suggested that plasma proteomic data may be useful in accurately predicting transition to psychosis in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR). We hypothesized that an a priori-specified proteomic prediction model would have strong predictive accuracy for psychosis risk and aimed to replicate longitudinal associations between plasma proteins and transition to psychosis. This study used plasma samples from participants in 3 CHR cohorts: the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Studies 2 and 3, and the NEURAPRO randomized control trial (total n = 754). Plasma proteomic data were quantified using mass spectrometry. The primary outcome was transition to psychosis over the study follow-up period. Logistic regression models were internally validated, and optimism-corrected performance metrics derived with a bootstrap procedure. In the overall sample of CHR participants (age: 18.5, SD: 3.9; 51.9% male), 20.4% (n = 154) developed psychosis within 4.4 years. The a priori-specified model showed poor risk-prediction accuracy for the development of psychosis (C-statistic: 0.51 [95% CI: 0.50, 0.59], calibration slope: 0.45). At a group level, Complement C8B, C4B, C5, and leucine-rich α-2 glycoprotein 1 (LRG1) were associated with transition to psychosis but did not surpass correction for multiple comparisons. This study did not confirm the findings from a previous proteomic prediction model of transition from CHR to psychosis. Certain complement proteins may be weakly associated with transition at a group level. Previous findings, derived from small samples, should be interpreted with caution.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableNon-psychotic Outcomes in Young People at Ultra-High Risk of Developing a Psychotic Disorder: A Long-Term Follow-up Study(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2024-02-16)BACKGROUND: The majority of individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis do not transition to a full threshold psychotic disorder. It is therefore important to understand their longer-term clinical and functional outcomes, particularly given the high prevalence of comorbid mental disorders in this population at baseline. AIMS: This study investigated the prevalence of non-psychotic disorders in the UHR population at entry and long-term follow-up and their association with functional outcomes. Persistence of UHR status was also investigated. STUDY DESIGN: The sample comprised 102 UHR young people from the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) Clinic who had not transitioned to psychosis by long-term follow-up (mean = 8.8 years, range = 6.8-12.1 years since baseline). RESULTS: Eighty-eight percent of participants at baseline were diagnosed with at least one mental disorder, the majority of which were mood disorders (78%), anxiety disorders (35%), and substance use disorders (SUDs) (18%). This pattern of disorder prevalence continued at follow-up, though prevalence was reduced, with 52% not meeting criteria for current non-psychotic mental disorder. However, 35% of participants developed a new non-psychotic mental disorder by follow-up. Presence of a continuous non-psychotic mental disorder was associated with poorer functional outcomes at follow-up. 28% of participants still met UHR criteria at follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The study adds to the evidence base that a substantial proportion of UHR individuals who do not transition to psychosis experience persistent attenuated psychotic symptoms and persistent and incident non-psychotic disorders over the long term. Long-term treatment and re-entry into services is indicated.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableCombining Clinical With Cognitive or Magnetic Resonance Imaging Data for Predicting Transition to Psychosis in Ultra High-Risk Patients: Data From the PACE 400 Cohort.(Elsevier BV, 2024-04)BACKGROUND: Multimodal modeling that combines biological and clinical data shows promise in predicting transition to psychosis in individuals who are at ultra-high risk. Individuals who transition to psychosis are known to have deficits at baseline in cognitive function and reductions in gray matter volume in multiple brain regions identified by magnetic resonance imaging. METHODS: In this study, we used Cox proportional hazards regression models to assess the additive predictive value of each modality-cognition, cortical structure information, and the neuroanatomical measure of brain age gap-to a previously developed clinical model using functioning and duration of symptoms prior to service entry as predictors in the Personal Assessment and Crisis Evaluation (PACE) 400 cohort. The PACE 400 study is a well-characterized cohort of Australian youths who were identified as ultra-high risk of transitioning to psychosis using the Comprehensive Assessment of At Risk Mental States (CAARMS) and followed for up to 18 years; it contains clinical data (from N = 416 participants), cognitive data (n = 213), and magnetic resonance imaging cortical parameters extracted using FreeSurfer (n = 231). RESULTS: The results showed that neuroimaging, brain age gap, and cognition added marginal predictive information to the previously developed clinical model (fraction of new information: neuroimaging 0%-12%, brain age gap 7%, cognition 0%-16%). CONCLUSIONS: In summary, adding a second modality to a clinical risk model predicting the onset of a psychotic disorder in the PACE 400 cohort showed little improvement in the fit of the model for long-term prediction of transition to psychosis.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA Sequential Adaptive Intervention Strategy Targeting Remission and Functional Recovery in Young People at Ultrahigh Risk of Psychosis The Staged Treatment in Early Psychosis (STEP) Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial(AMER MEDICAL ASSOC, 2023-09)IMPORTANCE: Clinical trials have not established the optimal type, sequence, and duration of interventions for people at ultrahigh risk of psychosis. OBJECTIVE: To determine the effectiveness of a sequential and adaptive intervention strategy for individuals at ultrahigh risk of psychosis. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The Staged Treatment in Early Psychosis (STEP) sequential multiple assignment randomized trial took place within the clinical program at Orygen, Melbourne, Australia. Individuals aged 12 to 25 years who were seeking treatment and met criteria for ultrahigh risk of psychosis according to the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States were recruited between April 2016 and January 2019. Of 1343 individuals considered, 342 were recruited. INTERVENTIONS: Step 1: 6 weeks of support and problem solving (SPS); step 2: 20 weeks of cognitive-behavioral case management (CBCM) vs SPS; and step 3: 26 weeks of CBCM with fluoxetine vs CBCM with placebo with an embedded fast-fail option of ω-3 fatty acids or low-dose antipsychotic medication. Individuals who did not remit progressed through these steps; those who remitted received SPS or monitoring for up to 12 months. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Global Functioning: Social and Role scales (primary outcome), Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms, Montgomery-Åsberg Depression Rating Scale, quality of life, transition to psychosis, and remission and relapse rates. RESULTS: The sample comprised 342 participants (198 female; mean [SD] age, 17.7 [3.1] years). Remission rates, reflecting sustained symptomatic and functional improvement, were 8.5%, 10.3%, and 11.4% at steps 1, 2, and 3, respectively. A total of 27.2% met remission criteria at any step. Relapse rates among those who remitted did not significantly differ between SPS and monitoring (step 1: 65.1% vs 58.3%; step 2: 37.7% vs 47.5%). There was no significant difference in functioning, symptoms, and transition rates between SPS and CBCM and between CBCM with fluoxetine and CBCM with placebo. Twelve-month transition rates to psychosis were 13.5% (entire sample), 3.3% (those who ever remitted), and 17.4% (those with no remission). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this sequential multiple assignment randomized trial, transition rates to psychosis were moderate, and remission rates were lower than expected, partly reflecting the ambitious criteria set and challenges with real-world treatment fidelity and adherence. While all groups showed mild to moderate functional and symptomatic improvement, this was typically short of remission. While further adaptive trials that address these challenges are needed, findings confirm substantial and sustained morbidity and reveal relatively poor responsiveness to existing treatments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT02751632.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableNormative Modeling of Brain Morphometry in Clinical High Risk for Psychosis(AMER MEDICAL ASSOC, 2024-01)IMPORTANCE: The lack of robust neuroanatomical markers of psychosis risk has been traditionally attributed to heterogeneity. A complementary hypothesis is that variation in neuroanatomical measures in individuals at psychosis risk may be nested within the range observed in healthy individuals. OBJECTIVE: To quantify deviations from the normative range of neuroanatomical variation in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) and evaluate their overlap with healthy variation and their association with positive symptoms, cognition, and conversion to a psychotic disorder. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This case-control study used clinical-, IQ-, and neuroimaging software (FreeSurfer)-derived regional measures of cortical thickness (CT), cortical surface area (SA), and subcortical volume (SV) from 1340 individuals with CHR-P and 1237 healthy individuals pooled from 29 international sites participating in the Enhancing Neuroimaging Genetics Through Meta-analysis (ENIGMA) Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group. Healthy individuals and individuals with CHR-P were matched on age and sex within each recruitment site. Data were analyzed between September 1, 2021, and November 30, 2022. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: For each regional morphometric measure, deviation scores were computed as z scores indexing the degree of deviation from their normative means from a healthy reference population. Average deviation scores (ADS) were also calculated for regional CT, SA, and SV measures and globally across all measures. Regression analyses quantified the association of deviation scores with clinical severity and cognition, and 2-proportion z tests identified case-control differences in the proportion of individuals with infranormal (z < -1.96) or supranormal (z > 1.96) scores. RESULTS: Among 1340 individuals with CHR-P, 709 (52.91%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 20.75 (4.74) years. Among 1237 healthy individuals, 684 (55.30%) were male, and the mean (SD) age was 22.32 (4.95) years. Individuals with CHR-P and healthy individuals overlapped in the distributions of the observed values, regional z scores, and all ADS values. For any given region, the proportion of individuals with CHR-P who had infranormal or supranormal values was low (up to 153 individuals [<11.42%]) and similar to that of healthy individuals (<115 individuals [<9.30%]). Individuals with CHR-P who converted to a psychotic disorder had a higher percentage of infranormal values in temporal regions compared with those who did not convert (7.01% vs 1.38%) and healthy individuals (5.10% vs 0.89%). In the CHR-P group, only the ADS SA was associated with positive symptoms (β = -0.08; 95% CI, -0.13 to -0.02; P = .02 for false discovery rate) and IQ (β = 0.09; 95% CI, 0.02-0.15; P = .02 for false discovery rate). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this case-control study, findings suggest that macroscale neuromorphometric measures may not provide an adequate explanation of psychosis risk.
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ItemBaseline data of a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (STEP study)(WILEY, 2022-10)AIM: Research has shown that preventative intervention in individuals at ultra-high risk of psychosis (UHR) improves symptomatic and functional outcomes. The staged treatment in early psychosis (STEP) trial aims to determine the most effective type, timing and sequence of interventions in the UHR population by sequentially studying the effectiveness of (1) support and problem solving, (2) cognitive-behavioural case management and (3) antidepressant medication with an embedded fast-fail option of (4) omega-3 fatty acids or low-dose antipsychotic medication. This paper presents the recruitment flow and baseline clinical characteristics of the sample. METHODS: STEP is a sequential multiple assignment randomized trial. We present the baseline demographics, clinical characteristics and acceptability and feasibility of this treatment approach as indicated by the flow of participants from first contact up until enrolment into the trial. Recruitment took place between April 2016 and January 2019. RESULTS: Of 1343, help-seeking young people who were considered for participation, 402 participants were not eligible and 599 declined/disengaged, resulting in a total of 342 participants enrolled in the study. The most common reason for exclusion was an active prescription of antidepressant medication. Eighty-five percent of the enrolled sample had a non-psychotic DSM-5 diagnosis and symptomatic/functional measures showed a moderate level of clinical severity and functional impairment. DISCUSSION: The present study demonstrates the acceptability and participant's general positive appraisal of sequential treatment. It also shows, in line with other trials in UHR individuals, a significant level of psychiatric morbidity and impairment, demonstrating the clear need for care in this group and that treatment is appropriate.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableHas improved treatment contributed to the declining rate of transition to psychosis in ultra-high-risk cohorts?(ELSEVIER, 2022-05)BACKGROUND: The factors contributing to declining psychotic disorder transition rates in ultra-high-risk populations remain unclear. We examined the contribution of longitudinal changes in standard clinical treatment ('treatment as usual') to this decline. METHOD: An audit was conducted on 105 clinical files of patients who received standard care at a specialised ultra-high-risk service. The session notes of these files were quantified, allowing examination of treatment quantity, targets, psychotherapy, and medication. Differences in these aspects across patients' year of clinic entry were assessed. Variables with significant differences across years were examined using cox regression to assess their contribution to psychosis transition rates. RESULTS: Findings were that, as a function of patients' year of clinic entry, there were increases in: patients' number of sessions, cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT), problem and solving therapy. There was a relationship between baseline year cohort and psychosis transition rate, with lower rates observed in more recent cohorts. When changes in treatment between cohorts were adjusted for, the relationship between baseline year cohort and transition rate disappeared. The relationship between baseline year and transition rate was attenuated most by increases in CBT. CONCLUSION: Changes in standard treatment, particularly increases in CBT, may have contributed to the decline in psychosis risk observed in recent ultra-high-risk cohorts, although these variables do not fully explain this trend. Implications for clinical practice, prediction and intervention research are discussed. Future ultra-high-risk research should investigate the impact of other treatment factors, such as therapeutic alliance.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableMachine learning based prediction and the influence of complement - Coagulation pathway proteins on clinical outcome: Results from the NEURAPRO trial(ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, 2022-07)BACKGROUND: Functional outcomes are important measures in the overall clinical course of psychosis and individuals at clinical high-risk (CHR), however, prediction of functional outcome remains difficult based on clinical information alone. In the first part of this study, we evaluated whether a combination of biological and clinical variables could predict future functional outcome in CHR individuals. The complement and coagulation pathways have previously been identified as being of relevance to the pathophysiology of psychosis and have been found to contribute to the prediction of clinical outcome in CHR participants. Hence, in the second part we extended the analysis to evaluate specifically the relationship of complement and coagulation proteins with psychotic symptoms and functional outcome in CHR. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We carried out plasma proteomics and measured plasma cytokine levels, and erythrocyte membrane fatty acid levels in a sub-sample (n = 158) from the NEURAPRO clinical trial at baseline and 6 months follow up. Functional outcome was measured using Social and Occupational Functional assessment Score (SOFAS) scale. Firstly, we used support vector machine learning techniques to develop predictive models for functional outcome at 12 months. Secondly, we developed linear regression models to understand the association between 6-month follow-up levels of complement and coagulation proteins with 6-month follow-up measures of positive symptoms summary (PSS) scores and functional outcome. RESULTS AND CONCLUSION: A prediction model based on clinical and biological data including the plasma proteome, erythrocyte fatty acids and cytokines, poorly predicted functional outcome at 12 months follow-up in CHR participants. In linear regression models, four complement and coagulation proteins (coagulation protein X, Complement C1r subcomponent like protein, Complement C4A & Complement C5) indicated a significant association with functional outcome; and two proteins (coagulation factor IX and complement C5) positively associated with the PSS score. Our study does not provide support for the utility of cytokines, proteomic or fatty acid data for prediction of functional outcomes in individuals at high-risk for psychosis. However, the association of complement protein levels with clinical outcome suggests a role for the complement system and the activity of its related pathway in the functional impairment and positive symptom severity of CHR patients.
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ItemEvidence that complement and coagulation proteins are mediating the clinical response to omega-3 fatty acids: A mass spectrometry-based investigation in subjects at clinical high-risk for psychosis(SPRINGERNATURE, 2022-10-28)Preliminary evidence indicates beneficial effects of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) in early psychosis. The present study investigates the molecular mechanism of omega-3 PUFA-associated therapeutic effects in clinical high-risk (CHR) participants. Plasma samples of 126 CHR psychosis participants at baseline and 6-months follow-up were included. Plasma protein levels were quantified using mass spectrometry and erythrocyte omega-3 PUFA levels were quantified using gas chromatography. We examined the relationship between change in polyunsaturated PUFAs (between baseline and 6-month follow-up) and follow-up plasma proteins. Using mediation analysis, we investigated whether plasma proteins mediated the relationship between change in omega-3 PUFAs and clinical outcomes. A 6-months change in omega-3 PUFAs was associated with 24 plasma proteins at follow-up. Pathway analysis revealed the complement and coagulation pathway as the main biological pathway to be associated with change in omega-3 PUFAs. Moreover, complement and coagulation pathway proteins significantly mediated the relationship between change in omega-3 PUFAs and clinical outcome at follow-up. The inflammatory protein complement C5 and protein S100A9 negatively mediated the relationship between change in omega-3 PUFAs and positive symptom severity, while C5 positively mediated the relationship between change in omega-3 and functional outcome. The relationship between change in omega-3 PUFAs and cognition was positively mediated through coagulation factor V and complement protein C1QB. Our findings provide evidence for a longitudinal association of omega-3 PUFAs with complement and coagulation protein changes in the blood. Further, the results suggest that an increase in omega-3 PUFAs decreases symptom severity and improves cognition in the CHR state through modulating effects of complement and coagulation proteins.
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ItemEffects of omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid supplementation on cognitive functioning in youth at ultra-high risk for psychosis: secondary analysis of the NEURAPRO randomised controlled trial(CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2022-09-08)BACKGROUND: Cognitive impairments are well-established features of psychotic disorders and are present when individuals are at ultra-high risk for psychosis. However, few interventions target cognitive functioning in this population. AIMS: To investigate whether omega-3 polyunsaturated fatty acid (n-3 PUFA) supplementation improves cognitive functioning among individuals at ultra-high risk for psychosis. METHOD: Data (N = 225) from an international, multi-site, randomised controlled trial (NEURAPRO) were analysed. Participants were given omega-3 supplementation (eicosapentaenoic acid and docosahexaenoic acid) or placebo over 6 months. Cognitive functioning was assessed with the Brief Assessment of Cognition in Schizophrenia (BACS). Mixed two-way analyses of variance were computed to compare the change in cognitive performance between omega-3 supplementation and placebo over 6 months. An additional biomarker analysis explored whether change in erythrocyte n-3 PUFA levels predicted change in cognitive performance. RESULTS: The placebo group showed a modest greater improvement over time than the omega-3 supplementation group for motor speed (ηp2 = 0.09) and BACS composite score (ηp2 = 0.21). After repeating the analyses without individuals who transitioned, motor speed was no longer significant (ηp2 = 0.02), but the composite score remained significant (ηp2 = 0.02). Change in erythrocyte n-3 PUFA levels did not predict change in cognitive performance over 6 months. CONCLUSIONS: We found no evidence to support the use of omega-3 supplementation to improve cognitive functioning in ultra-high risk individuals. The biomarker analysis suggests that this finding is unlikely to be attributed to poor adherence or consumption of non-trial n-3 PUFAs.