Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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More than half of Australians are only just making ends meet

Gamarra Rondinel, A ( 2023-12-18)

Many Australians are struggling to pay for everyday essentials, but some of us are feeling the pinch more than others.
Household income and the risk of poverty around the time of childbirth

Gamarra Rondinel, A ; PRICE, A (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, 2023)

The study examines the impact of childbirth on household income and poverty during the crucial first 1,000 days of a child's life, using longitudinal data from the Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (2001-2021) and an event study approach. The birth of a first child results in a reduction in household gross income, with one-parent households experiencing, on average, a 27% decrease and two-parent households an 18% decrease. Within five years of the first child's birth, a substantial portion of households (37-40%) either remain in poverty or enter poverty. This is more common for one-parent (63-70%) than two-parent households (34-36%), with childbirth amplifying the likelihood of being in poverty by 0.17 and 0.10 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, without government family payments, the average poverty rate increases from 26% for one-parent households and 10% for two-parent households before childbirth, to 63% and 20%, respectively, in the years following. With family payments, the average poverty rates after childbirth are 37% and 11%, respectively. This indicates that while government payments assist in mitigating poverty, they do not fully shield families from the risk of falling into poverty after childbirth.
Rethinking the Laffer Curve From an Individual Approach: Evidence from the Spanish Income Tax

Gamarra Rondinel, A (Tax and Transfer Policy Institute, 2023-08-24)

Why it is important to revise the Laffer Curve today? Some may argue that the Laffer Curve is an outdated concept in fiscal policy, but in the current scenario of fiscal finances, it may be useful to revisit the Laffer Curve.
Raising children in the lucky country: Understanding the income penalty and poverty at childbirth

Gamarra Rondinel, A ; PRICE, A (The Power to Persuade, 2023-10-12)

For Anti-Poverty Week 2023, Dr Ana Gamarra Rondinel (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research and Life Course Centre) and Dr Anna Price (The University of Melbourne and Centre for Community Child Health, Murdoch Children's Research Institute) explore the interplay between first time parenthood, financial security, and early child development.
Twelve months later: Most Australians facing high levels of challenges covering housing and/or food costs

Botha, F ; Payne, A ; Gamarra Rondinel, A (The University of Melbourne & Roy Morgan, 2023-11-08)

Since August 2022, we have asked respondents questions related to food and housing security and found many were reporting high levels of insecurity. This Taking the Pulse of the Nation (TTPN) report compares responses from the surveys conducted in August 2022, February 2023, and August 2023.
Not able to save for a rainy day

Botha, F ; Gamarra Rondinel, A ; Payne, A (Melbourne Institute, The University of Melbourne, 2023-11-08)

Are Australians saving for a rainy day? For those not facing challenges covering everyday bills, most would draw from savings or assets if faced with a financial emergency. But for those with current financial challenges, being able to cover an emergency expense is more challenging.
The Elasticity of Taxable Income of Low-Income Earners: Bunching Evidence from Spain

Gamarra Rondinel, A (Tax and Transfer Policy Institute (TTPI), 2023-03-28)
Evasion vs. real production responses to taxation among firms: bunching evidence from Argentina

Gamarra Rondinel, A (Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Estudios Latinoamericanos (IELAT), 2017-04-03)

A key idea in public economics is that optimal tax policies and tax instruments can ensure production efficiency even in second-best environments. This theoretical prediction has been widely accepted and put into practice in developed and developing countries. Yet, it has been derived from models that ignore tax evasion. Once enforcement constraints are acknowledged, some studies suggest that –contrary to the theoretical prediction – production efficiency is no longer the centerpiece of the model while instead revenue efficiency becomes more relevant. This paper analyzes empirically such trade-off between revenue and production efficiency in the choice of tax instruments in Argentina. We use a production inefficient tax policy, the simplified tax regime, which affects firms’ behavior on compliance and real output. Using the bunching approach and administrative tax data covering all corporate income tax returns for the years 1997-2011, we show that the asymmetric bunching in Argentina represents intensive and extensive margin responses. Incorporating turnover evasion in an optimal tax model, we find that in Argentina the trade-off is not as clear as in Pakistan because bunching could be the result of less compliance
The individual Laffer curve: evidence from the Spanish income tax

Gamarra Rondinel, A ; Sanz-Sanz, JF ; Arrazola, M (Melbourne Institute, Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, 2023-04-05)

This paper characterises the Laffer curve of each individual taxpayer in a schedular multirate income tax with income shifting. Analytical expressions for the revenue-maximising tax rate and the revenue-maximising elasticity are provided for the individual taxpayer and the aggregate population, as well as new estimates of the Elasticity of Taxable Income (ETI). Applying these to the Spanish income tax demonstrates that 49.46% (58.49%) of the taxpaying population in the non-savings tax base (savings tax base) is on the "prohibitive" side ("normal" side) of the Laffer curve. On average, these taxpayers are 6.59 points (24.73 points) above (below) the maximum of the Laffer curve. The fraction of total tax revenue lost through behavioural responses amounts to 3.77%. However, this fraction varies by population subgroup and decreases when we account for income-shifting responses, suggesting the presence of fiscal externalities in the Spanish PIT.
Australians continue to face budgetary constraints in housing, food, energy and healthcare

Payne, A ; Gamarra Rondinel, A ; Botha, F (The University of Melbourne & Roy Morgan, 2023-05-04)

More than 50 percent of Australians reported facing multiple financial challenges covering basic costs such as food, energy, health, and housing.