Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemFrom substance use to homelessness or vice versa?(PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2015-07)Homelessness is associated with substance use, but whether substance use precedes or follows homelessness is unclear. We investigate the nature of the relationship between homelessness and substance use using data from the unique Australian panel dataset Journeys Home collected in 4 surveys over the period from October 2011 to May 2013. Our data refer to 1325 individuals who were homeless or at risk of becoming homeless. We investigate dynamics in homelessness and substance use over the survey period. We find that the two are closely related: homeless individuals are more likely to be substance users and substance users are more likely to be homeless. These relationships, however, are predominantly driven by observed and unobserved individual characteristics which cause individuals to be both more likely to be homeless and to be substance users. Once we take these personal characteristics into account it seems that homelessness does not affect substance use, although we cannot rule out that alcohol use increases the probability that an individual becomes homeless. These overall relationships also hide some interesting heterogeneity by 'type' of homelessness.
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ItemWork-Related Training and the Probability of Transitioning from Non-Permanent to Permanent Employment(Wiley, 2016-01-01)It is widely believed that work-related training increases a worker's probability of moving up the job-quality ladder. This is usually couched in terms of effects on wages, but it has also been argued that training increases the probability of moving from non-permanent forms of employment to more permanent employment. This hypothesis is tested using nationally representative panel data for Australia, a country where the incidence of non-permanent employment, and especially casual employment, is high by international standards. While a positive association between participation in work-related training and the subsequent probability of moving from either casual or fixed-term contract employment to permanent employment is observed among men, this is shown to be driven not by a causal impact of training on transitions but by differences between those who do and do not receive training, that is selection bias.
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ItemWhy do disability benefit rolls vary between regions? A review of the evidence from the USA and the UK(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2006-07)
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ItemYou'll never walk alone: Childhood influences and male career path clusters(ELSEVIER, 2005-08)
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ItemPanel estimates of the determinants of British regional male incapacity benefits rolls 1998-2006(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2010)
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ItemHas the Boom in Incapacity Benefit Claimant Numbers Passed Its Peak?(WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2008-12)Abstract Just over 2.5 million people of working age were on the incapacity benefit register in Great Britain in 2006, twice as many as 15 years earlier, and we explore the factors contributing to that huge growth. Using a simple model linking ‘inflow’ to the size of the register via a pair of persistence parameters (‘short’ and ‘long’ term), we show that the principal driver of numbers up to the mid‐1990s was inflow, but since then it has been the steep rise in ‘average duration’ from below four to more than six years. For women the lengthening time on the register mainly reflects a rise in short‐term persistence (survival on the register from one to two years), whilst for men the increase in long‐term persistence (survival on the register after two years) was more important. We also use the model to discuss the likelihood that the British government will achieve its target of reducing incapacity benefit numbers by 1 million by 2016.
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ItemChoice of contracts in the British National Health Service: An empirical study(ELSEVIER, 2008-09)Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform.
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ItemDoes Job Search Monitoring Intensity Affect Unemployment? Evidence from Northern Ireland(WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2010-04)Because unemployment benefit reforms typically package together a number of changes, few existing evaluations have been able to isolate the effects of changes in job search monitoring intensity on benefit recipient stocks or flows. Those few studies that do so draw mixed conclusions. This paper provides new estimates of monitoring impacts by exploiting plausibly exogenous periods where search monitoring has been temporarily withdrawn – with the regime otherwise unchanged – during a series of benefit office refurbishments in Northern Ireland. As we would expect from search theory, withdrawal of monitoring significantly increases the stock of unemployment benefit recipients via reduced outflows.