Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemExplaining Improved Use of High-Risk Medications in Medicare Between 2007 and 2011(WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2016-03)
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ItemANTICIPATORY BEHAVIOR IN RESPONSE TO MEDICARE PART D'S COVERAGE GAP(WILEY, 2017-03)
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ItemSimulating Variation in Families' Spending across Marketplace Plans(WILEY, 2018-08)OBJECTIVE: To examine variations in premium and cost-sharing across marketplace plans available to eligible families. DATA SOURCES: 2011-2012 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS), 2014 health plan data from healthcare.gov, and the 2011 Medicare Part D public formulary file. STUDY DESIGN: We identified a nationally representative cohort of individuals in the MEPS who would have been eligible for marketplace coverage. For each family, we simulated the total out-of-pocket payment (premium plus cost-sharing) under each available plan in their county of residence, assuming their premarketplace use. DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS: Confidential state and county of residence identifiers were merged onto MEPS public use files and used to match MEPS families to the plans available in their county as reported in the publicly available data from healthcare.gov. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found substantial variation in total family health care spending, especially premium component, across marketplace plans. This is true even within a plan tier of the same minimum actuarial value, and for families eligible for subsidies. Variation among families with income below 250 percent of the FPL is larger than variation among families with higher income. CONCLUSIONS: Our simulations show substantial variations in net premium and out-of-pocket payments across marketplace plans, even within a plan tier.
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ItemPharmaceutical Use and Spending Trend in Medicare Beneficiaries With Dementia, From 2006 to 2012(SAGE Publications (UK and US), 2017-01-01)Objectives: The aim of the study was to examine the trend in incidence and prevalence of dementia, use and spending of antidementia and antipsychotic drugs among dementia patients. Methods: Using 2006-2012 Medicare claims data, we identified individuals with diagnosis of dementia and collected their pharmacy claims in 2006-2012. We built regression models to test the trend in number of prescriptions and spending on antidementia, antipsychotic, and other drugs. Results: The prevalence of dementia did not change during our study period. Spending on antidementia and antipsychotic drugs creased to increase in 2011, following the patent expiration of Aricept, Zyprexa, and Seroquel; and total pharmaceutical spending did not change in 2006-2012. Use of antidementia drugs increased during our study period; however, the off-label use of antipsychotic drugs did not decrease. Discussion: Pharmaceutical spending associated with dementia may not be as concerning for Medicare as previously thought; nevertheless, policies that discourage the nonevidence-based off-label use of drugs are warranted.
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ItemOutcomes of Patients With Atrial Fibrillation Newly Recommended for Oral Anticoagulation Under the 2014 American Heart Association/American College of Cardiology/Heart Rhythm Society Guideline(WILEY, 2018-01)BACKGROUND: In March 2014, the American Heart Association updated their guidelines for the management of oral anticoagulation (OAC) in atrial fibrillation, recommending OAC for all patients with CHA2DS2-VASc ≥2. Previously, only patients with CHADS2 ≥2 were recommended for anticoagulation. This study compared effectiveness and safety outcomes of OAC among patients who would receive OAC using the 2014 guidelines but not the 2011 guidelines. METHODS AND RESULTS: Using claims data from a 5% sample of 2013-2014 Medicare beneficiaries, we identified patients with initially diagnosed atrial fibrillation between 2013 and 2014 and selected those who would receive OAC under the 2014 guidelines but not the 2011 guidelines (those with CHA2DS2-VASc score ≥2 or CHADS2 score <2). Patients were categorized according to their use of OAC after first atrial fibrillation diagnosis (2937 users and 2914 nonusers). Primary outcomes included the composite of ischemic stroke, systemic embolism and death, and any bleeding event. Cox proportional hazard models were constructed to compare the risk of primary outcomes between the 2 groups, while controlling for patient demographic and clinical characteristics. There was no difference in the combined risk of stroke, systemic embolism, and death between the treatment groups (hazard ratio, 1.00; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-1.20). The risk of bleeding was higher for patients receiving OAC than for patients not receiving OAC (hazard ratio, 1.70, 95% confidence interval, 1.46-1.97). CONCLUSIONS: The benefit of OAC is not well defined in this patient population, and new studies that minimize residual confounding are needed to fully understand the risk/benefit of OAC in patients with atrial fibrillation and low to moderate stroke risk.
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ItemFactors affecting general practitioners' decisions to adopt new prescription drugs - Cohort analyses using Australian longitudinal physician survey data(BioMed Central, 2019-02-07)Background: We investigate factors affecting Australian general practitioners' decisions to adopt novel oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for the prevention of stroke/systemic embolism among patients with atrial fibrillation. Australia has a national homogeneous review and coverage system, which enables us to distinguish physician level factors while maintaining system level factors and patient coverage information constant. Methods: We conduct a cohort analyses by using longitudinal physician survey data from the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life panel survey of Australian physicians (MABEL). MABEL data contain rich physician-level information such as age, gender, education, risk preferences, personality, physicians' communications with other medical professionals, and other practice characteristics. Importantly, the survey data were linked, with physician's consent, to actual utilization data from the Australian Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme and the Medicare Benefits Schedule between January 1, 2012 and December 31, 2015. We measure speed (days until first time prescribing) of adopting NOACs. We estimate a Cox proportional hazard model to estimate factors affecting the adoption speed. Results: Several factors predict earlier adoption of NOACs: being male, more likely to take clinical risk, higher prescribing volume, being a principal or partner in the practice instead of an employee, spending less time in a typical consultation, and practicing in more affluent areas or areas with a higher proportion of older patients. GPs in Queensland are more likely to adopt NOACs and more likely to be extensive early adopters compared to other GPs. Other characteristics including physician personality, family circumstances, their involvement with public hospitals and teaching activities, and the distance between physician practice location to other clinics in the area are not statistically associated with earlier adoption. Conclusions: Our paper is one of the first to study the relationship between GPs' risk preferences, personality and their decisions to adopt new prescription drugs. Because NOACs are commonly prescribed and considered more cost-effective than their older counterpart, understanding factors affecting physicians' decisions to adopt NOACs has direct policy implications. Our results also highlight that even with universal coverage for prescription drugs, access to new drugs is different among patients, partially because who their doctors are and where they practice.
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ItemEffects of integrated chronic care models on hypertension outcomes and spending: a multi-town clustered randomized trial in China(BMC, 2017-03-11)BACKGROUND: Hypertension affects one billion people globally and is one of the leading risk factors for cardiovascular and renal diseases. However, hypertension management remains poor, especially in rural China. METHODS: A clustered randomized controlled trial was conducted in six towns in China's Qianjiang county between 7/2012 and 6/2014, including 5462 hypertension patients above 35 years old. Six towns were randomly assigned to three groups: Group 1 had the integrated care model including a multidisciplinary team and continuous care coordination, Group 2 had both the integrated care model and provider-level financial incentives, and the control group had the usual care. Primary outcomes were systolic blood pressure and health-related quality of life measured by SF36; secondary outcomes included hypertension-related hospitalization rate and inpatient spending. Blood pressure was measured sixteen times bimonthly between 12/1/2011 and 6/30/2014, and quality of life was measured on 7/1/2012 and 6/30/2014. Inpatient data between 7/1/2010 and 8/31/2014 were used. This trial is registered at the World Health Organization's International Clinical Trials Registry, number ChiCTR-OOR-14005563. RESULTS: We found that the integrated care model effectively lowered blood pressure by 1.93 mmHg (95% CI 0.063-3.8), improved self-assessed health-related quality of life, and reduced the rate of hypertension-related hospitalization by 0.17 percentage points (95% CI 0.094-0.24). We also found that the provider-level financial contract further lowered blood pressure by 1.76 mmHg (95% CI 0.73-2.79) and reduced rates of hospitalization and inpatient spending, but it also reduced patients' self-assessed health-related quality of life. CONCLUSIONS: Integrated care and financial incentives are effective in lowering blood pressure and reducing hospitalization rate, but financial contracts may hurt patient quality of life. This trial was registered at the Chinese Clinical Trial Registry (ChiCTR-OOR-14005563) on November 23, 2014. It was a retrospective registration.