Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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    Age penalties and take-up of private health insurance
    Zhang, Y ; Kettlewell, N (Melbourne Institute, 2021-12-01)
    Penalty mandates are used in many countries to encourage people to purchase health insurance. But are they effective? We use a large administrative dataset for a 10% random sample of all Australian tax-filers to study how people respond to a step-wise age-based mandate, and whether this has changed over time. The mandate creates discontinuities in the incentive to insure by age, which we exploit to estimate causal effects. People who do not insure before the penalty dates face higher premiums in the future, which should encourage them to bring forward purchases. We find that people respond as expected to the initial age-penalty, but not to subsequent penalties. The 2% premium loading results in a 1-4% increase in take-up, with effects increasing after an annual government letter campaign that reminds people approaching the penalty deadline about the policy. We discuss the impact of the mandate on the overall efficiency of the market, and implications of potential reforms.
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    Household income and the risk of poverty around the time of childbirth
    Gamarra Rondinel, A ; PRICE, A (Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, 2023)
    The study examines the impact of childbirth on household income and poverty during the crucial first 1,000 days of a child's life, using longitudinal data from the Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (2001-2021) and an event study approach. The birth of a first child results in a reduction in household gross income, with one-parent households experiencing, on average, a 27% decrease and two-parent households an 18% decrease. Within five years of the first child's birth, a substantial portion of households (37-40%) either remain in poverty or enter poverty. This is more common for one-parent (63-70%) than two-parent households (34-36%), with childbirth amplifying the likelihood of being in poverty by 0.17 and 0.10 percentage points, respectively. Furthermore, without government family payments, the average poverty rate increases from 26% for one-parent households and 10% for two-parent households before childbirth, to 63% and 20%, respectively, in the years following. With family payments, the average poverty rates after childbirth are 37% and 11%, respectively. This indicates that while government payments assist in mitigating poverty, they do not fully shield families from the risk of falling into poverty after childbirth.
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    Self-control and unhealthy body weight: the role of impulsivity and restraint
    Cobb-Clark, DA ; Dahmann, S ; Kamhöfer, DA ; Schildberg-Hörisch, H (Melbourne Institute, 2022-01-01)
    We examine the relationship between trait self-control and body weight. Data from a population representative household survey reveal that limited self-control is strongly associated with both objective and subjective measures of unhealthy body weight. Those with limited self-control are characterised by reduced exercising, repeated dieting, unhealthier eating habits, and poorer nutrition. We propose an empirical method to isolate two facets of self-control limitations—high impulsivity and low restraint. Each has differential predictive power. Physical activity, dieting, and overall body weight are more strongly associated with restraint; impulsivity is more predictive of when, where, and what people eat.
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    Evasion vs. real production responses to taxation among firms: bunching evidence from Argentina
    Gamarra Rondinel, A (Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Estudios Latinoamericanos (IELAT), 2017-04-03)
    A key idea in public economics is that optimal tax policies and tax instruments can ensure production efficiency even in second-best environments. This theoretical prediction has been widely accepted and put into practice in developed and developing countries. Yet, it has been derived from models that ignore tax evasion. Once enforcement constraints are acknowledged, some studies suggest that –contrary to the theoretical prediction – production efficiency is no longer the centerpiece of the model while instead revenue efficiency becomes more relevant. This paper analyzes empirically such trade-off between revenue and production efficiency in the choice of tax instruments in Argentina. We use a production inefficient tax policy, the simplified tax regime, which affects firms’ behavior on compliance and real output. Using the bunching approach and administrative tax data covering all corporate income tax returns for the years 1997-2011, we show that the asymmetric bunching in Argentina represents intensive and extensive margin responses. Incorporating turnover evasion in an optimal tax model, we find that in Argentina the trade-off is not as clear as in Pakistan because bunching could be the result of less compliance
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    The individual Laffer curve: evidence from the Spanish income tax
    Gamarra Rondinel, A ; Sanz-Sanz, JF ; Arrazola, M (Melbourne Institute, Applied Economic & Social Research, The University of Melbourne, 2023-04-05)
    This paper characterises the Laffer curve of each individual taxpayer in a schedular multirate income tax with income shifting. Analytical expressions for the revenue-maximising tax rate and the revenue-maximising elasticity are provided for the individual taxpayer and the aggregate population, as well as new estimates of the Elasticity of Taxable Income (ETI). Applying these to the Spanish income tax demonstrates that 49.46% (58.49%) of the taxpaying population in the non-savings tax base (savings tax base) is on the "prohibitive" side ("normal" side) of the Laffer curve. On average, these taxpayers are 6.59 points (24.73 points) above (below) the maximum of the Laffer curve. The fraction of total tax revenue lost through behavioural responses amounts to 3.77%. However, this fraction varies by population subgroup and decreases when we account for income-shifting responses, suggesting the presence of fiscal externalities in the Spanish PIT.
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    Private Protection and Public Policing
    Hickey, R ; Mongrain, S ; Roberts, J ; van Ypersele, T (Melbourne Institute, 2019-03-01)
    This paper looks carefully at situations in which public and private protection are complementary, that is, when private protection must be coordinated with public protection to be effective. For example, home alarms deter theft by being connected to a local police station: if the police do not respond to a home alarm, the home alarm on its own is virtually useless in halting a crime in action. We make a distinction between gross and net complementarity and substitution, where the latter takes into account the effect on the crime rate. We show that when public and private protection are complements the optimal provision of public protection trades offs the manipulation effect of encouraging private protection with the compensatory effect of providing protection to households that do not privately invest. We discuss the implications of our results for policy and empirical research in this area.
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    The impact of COVID-19 on GPs and non-GP specialists in private practice
    Scott, A (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020)
    The healthcare system in Australia has not been overwhelmed by the COVID-19 pandemic as initially expected. Nevertheless, there have been significant changes in the use of healthcare from the suspension of non-urgent elective surgery, social distancing restrictions that have discouraged people from leaving home, public fear of contracting or spreading the virus in health facilities, and increased household financial pressure that reduces the affordability of out-ofpocket payments. The aim of this report is to examine the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on General Practitioners (GPs) and non-GP specialists working in private practice. It examines the short-term effects on doctors’ working patterns and mental health, how doctors have responded and how they have been supported during the pandemic. New evidence is presented from the Medicine in Australia: Balancing Employment and Life (MABEL) COVID-19 Short Online Survey (SOS) – MABEL COVID-19 SOS – which was completed by a representative sample of 2,235 GPs and non-GP specialists between 14 and 24 May 2020, with comparison to the MABEL Wave 11 survey conducted in 2018-19.
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    Nursing Home Competition, Prices and Quality: A Review and Some Lessons for Australia
    Yang, O ; Yong, J ; Scott, A (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020-06-01)
    In recent years, with the aim of containing cost pressure and improving efficiency, many countries have begun to introduce market mechanisms into the aged care sector. Under the right conditions, competition can spur providers to compete by cutting costs, offering better prices and higher quality of services. However, in aged care, market failures can be severe. Information about prices and quality may not be readily available and search costs can be high. This study undertakes a scoping review of the literature on competition in the nursing home sector, with an emphasis on research examining how competition affects prices and quality of care. Online databases were used to identify studies in English language published between 1988–2020. A total of 44 publications covering nine countries are included in this review. On the relationship between competition and quality, the literature offers conflicting evidence. Some studies find greater competition leading to higher quality, while others find the opposite effect. Institutional features such as the presence of binding supply restrictions on nursing homes and public release of information on quality appear to be important considerations. On the price effect of competition, most studies find that greater competition tends to result in lower prices, although the effect is small. The literature offers several lessons for Australia, including whether increasing subsidies can result in higher quality and the role of public reporting of quality ratings in fostering competition.
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    Financial Stress and Household Consumption: Exploring households’ commitment to contractual payments
    Settle, A (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020-11-01)
    In a context of increasing attention to growing fixed payments, slim buffers, and unstable incomes in the household sector, this analysis considers the degree to which households prioritise contractual payments. The study uses Australian household expenditure data to examine which expenditure categories are prioritised when households enter into financial stress. The analysis finds that financially stressed households maintain basic expenditure and contractual payments by reducing expenditure on insurance along with more conventional discretionary spending. These findings suggest that insurance is effectively considered a luxury good. The findings thus point towards a sharp rise in risk exposure that accompanies the early stages of financial stress as households absorb shocks in order to maintain the stability of contractual payments. The findings have important implications for how we understand household sensitivity to shocks and the behaviour of households with regards to risk management, as well as the capacity of private insurance markets to stabilise the household sector. The findings also feed directly into broader questions about how the distribution of risk is evolving as household balance sheets expand.
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    The New Normal: Navigating an Economic Recovery
    Lim, G ; Nguyen, V ; Robinson, T ; Tsiaplias, S (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020)
    On the road to economic recovery, a pickup in household consumption is key, but GDP growth could be weighed down by low growth in population and wages. Australia is a small-open economy, and is materially affected by developments abroad, through trade in goods and services, financial factors, and the international movement of people. COVID-19, lockdowns, and the closure of borders have had a massive negative pervasive impact on Australia’s economic performance in 2020. Overall, GDP plummeted by a record 7 percent in the June quarter following a small fall of 0.3 percent in the March quarter (Australian National Accounts, June Quarter 2020). Australia entered its first technical recession since 1991, with hours worked falling heavily, and underemployment spiking.