Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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    Baynesian evidence on the structure of unemployment
    Summers, Peter M. ( 2003-02)
    This paper presents a Bayesian assessment of the likelihood of unit roots in the unemployment rates of 16 OECD countries. Bayesian techniques for detecting multiple structural breaks in time series have recently been developed by Wang and Zivot (2000). I apply these tests to a data set recently analyzed by Papell et al (2000). I also treat the number of structural breaks as an additional parameter to be estimated. I find virtually no support for unit root hysteresis in OECD unemployment rates, this result is very robust to the choice of prior
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    Dynamic Relationships in the Australian Labour Market: Heterogeneity and State Dependence
    Knights, S. ; Harris, M. N. ; Loundes, J. ( 2000-03)
    In this study, individual labour market dynamics are analysed using the Australian Longitudinal Survey. A random utility framework for analysing discrete choices is adopted. In this context, a model incorporating a state dependent relationship between employment outcomes is estimated. The influence on individual employment outcomes of additional variables including education, gender and unemployment benefits is also investigated. It is found that, even after controlling for observable and unobservable differences between individuals, there is strong evidence of state dependence. In certain key respects, the findings of this study differ markedly from those of other Australian labour market studies. It is expected that these findings will provide further insight into the causes of contemporary unemployment, and may constitute further evidence of a 'scarring' effect of unemployment.
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    Labour market models of unemployment in Australia
    Borland, Jeff ; MCDONALD, IAN ( 2000-09)
    This paper reviews evidence on the equilibrium rate of unemployment and on causes of unemployment in Australia from empirical modelling of labour market outcomes. Three main types of models are reviewed - Phillips curve models; Multi-equation models; and Beveridge curve models. The paper begins with a simple review of labour market theory in order to provide some motivation for the empirical approaches that are examined. In the main part of the paper the three modelling approaches are reviewed. For each model the estimation methodology is described, main results on causes of unemployment from that approach are summarised, and an evaluation of the model is made.
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    Disaggregated models of unemployment in Australia
    Borland, Jeff ( 2000-09)
    This paper reviews evidence on causes of unemployment in Australia from disaggregated modelling of the labour market. Three main types of modelling are considered. First, information on unemployment rates of labour force participants with different skills is presented, and analyses that seek to explain why unemployment varies between skill groups are described. Second, descriptive evidence on unemployment rates by state and neighbourhood is presented, and possible causes of regional differences in unemployment rates are assessed. Third, descriptive information on the distribution of unemployed persons by duration of unemployment spell is presented, and studies of the determinants of the duration of unemployment spells are summarised.
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    Cross-country studies of unemployment in Australia
    Borland, Jeff ; MCDONALD, IAN ( 2000-09)
    This paper reviews evidence on causes of unemployment in Australia from cross-country studies of the relation between the rate of unemployment and a range of macroeconomic and institutional factors. An overview of the evolution of this literature and of the possible institutional factors that might affect labour market outcomes is presented. The main findings from the different types of studies are summarised, and results from some studies are applied to show the particular set of factors that account for increases in the rate of unemployment in Australia between the 1960s and 1990s. Finally, an evaluation of some problems with cross-country studies is presente
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    Labour Market Analysis with VAR Models
    SUMMERS, PETER ( 2000-09)
    This paper provides an overview of how labour market analysis can be conducted in the context of VAR-based models. The examples presented here show that these methods are quite flexible, and capable of addressing a wide variety of theoretical and policy-related issues. Specifically, the various techniques are illustrated in models which: examine the dynamics of gross job flows; assess the relationship between real wages and unemployment; quantify the contribution of sectoral shocks to the number of people unemployed by duration of unemployment; examine the relative contributions of discouraged worker effects, insider effects, etc. on the persistence of unemployment; and analyse the effects of labour market shocks in the OECD countries.