Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemEvasion vs. real production responses to taxation among firms: bunching evidence from Argentina(Universidad de Alcalá. Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Estudios Latinoamericanos (IELAT), 2017-04-03)A key idea in public economics is that optimal tax policies and tax instruments can ensure production efficiency even in second-best environments. This theoretical prediction has been widely accepted and put into practice in developed and developing countries. Yet, it has been derived from models that ignore tax evasion. Once enforcement constraints are acknowledged, some studies suggest that –contrary to the theoretical prediction – production efficiency is no longer the centerpiece of the model while instead revenue efficiency becomes more relevant. This paper analyzes empirically such trade-off between revenue and production efficiency in the choice of tax instruments in Argentina. We use a production inefficient tax policy, the simplified tax regime, which affects firms’ behavior on compliance and real output. Using the bunching approach and administrative tax data covering all corporate income tax returns for the years 1997-2011, we show that the asymmetric bunching in Argentina represents intensive and extensive margin responses. Incorporating turnover evasion in an optimal tax model, we find that in Argentina the trade-off is not as clear as in Pakistan because bunching could be the result of less compliance
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ItemScaling up sanitation: Evidence from an RCT in Indonesia(Elsevier, 2019-05)We investigate the impacts of a widely used sanitation intervention, Community-Led Total Sanitation, which was implemented at scale across rural areas of Indonesia with a randomized controlled trial to evaluate its effectiveness. The program resulted in modest increases in toilet construction, decreased community tolerance of open defecation and reduced roundworm infestations in children. However, there was no impact on anemia, height or weight. We find important heterogeneity along three dimensions: (1) poverty—poorer households are limited in their ability to improve sanitation; (2) implementer identity—scale up involves local governments taking over implementation from World Bank contractors yet no sanitation and health benefits accrue in villages with local government implementation; and (3) initial levels of social capital—villages with high initial social capital built toilets whereas the community-led approach was counterproductive in low social capital villages with fewer toilets being built.
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ItemRe-engaging with survey non-respondents: Evidence from three household panels(Wiley, 2014)Previous research into the correlates and determinants of non‐response in longitudinal surveys has focused exclusively on why it is that respondents at one survey wave choose not to participate at future waves. This is very understandable if non‐response is always an absorbing state, but in many longitudinal surveys, and certainly most household panels, this is not so. Indeed, in these surveys it is normal practice to attempt to make contact with many non‐respondents at the next wave. This study differs from previous research by examining re‐engagement with previous wave non‐respondents. Drawing on data from three national household panels it is found that the re‐engagement decision is indeed distinctly different from the decision about continued participation. Further, these differences have clear implications for the way that panel surveys should be administered given the desire to enhance overall response rates.
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ItemESSAYS ON WAR, FORCED DISPLACEMENT,HIV, AND EDUCATION( 2020)The field of Economics has benefited from the great improvements in data collection we have witnessed during the last decade. We now have within our reach datasets with high precision and frequency. The availability of higher frequency data allowed for a shift from cross-sectional data to panel data—same cross-section over time. Using panel data the researcher observes the same unit of analysis over time. The main advantage is that if researchers observe then same units over time, they can control for unobserved characteristics that while unknown, can be understood not to have much variation over time. In the recent years, data with precise geographical information is allowing researchers to merge previously unrelated datasets using geographical location. The data limitations of the past are being tackled by the development of methods addressing the unknown, and new data availability—and computing power—that allows us to enrich our data by merging it with data coming from all types of sources. The first chapter of this thesis uses panel data where the unit of analysis is a 2 mile by 2 mile square observed over two years to study forced displacement as a response to conflict in Iraq. Chapter 2 uses the exact geographical location of households in Rwanda, conflict during the 1994 genocide, and other geographical features to document the prevalence of wartime rape during the genocide in HIV levels a decade later. Chapter 3 uses a panel of schools in Spain to assess the impact of a bilingual education system on student learning outcomes. Chapter 1 studies how internally displaced persons reacted as a response to violent conflict in Iraq during the war against ISIL between 2014 and 2017. I develop a network model that accommodates new data with exact geographical coordinates. The data on IDPs and conflict has a large spacetime variation that can be exploited by the estimation model. I contribute to fill the existing gap in the conflict literature regarding internally displaced persons by answering the following questions: How far from conflict do IDPs go? Where do IDPs shelter? How does conflict increase the probability of a location to host IDPs? How does conflict accumulate to trigger displacement? The highest concentration of IDPs is found within 2 miles of conflict and decreases with distance, disappearing beyond 40 miles. IDPs tend to cluster in highly populated areas, within 5 miles of a main road. Non-diverse ethno-religious areas host fewer IDPs relative to areas without a clear ethno-religious majority. An extra conflict event within 2 miles increases the probability of a grid cell to host IDPs by 30%. Forced displacement is triggered by conflict accumulating for two weeks at most. Chapter 2 finds empirical evidence of wartime rape during the Rwandan genocide. I use HIV data 10 years after the genocide as a measure of the prevalence of rape to find that HIV levels in 2005 can be explained by the intensity of the genocide in the different Rwandan districts. The findings document both the prevalence of rape- usually stigmatized and hard to measure- and its dire lasting effects on the Rwandan population long after the crimes were committed. To establish causality, I exploit the exogenous variation in the accessibility to households during the genocide. I measure accessibility in terms of the distance from these households to the main roads, the rainfall over those roads during the genocide, and terrain ruggedness. Chapter 3 analyses the impact of a bilingual education program aiming promote students’ language proficiency and communicative competence in a language other than their own. Nowadays, bilingual programs are present worldwide responding to an increasing demand partially driven by the potential personal and economic benefits from being proficient in a foreign language. However, bilingual education increases the difficulty of learning academic content due to it being taught in a non-native language. To measure the importance of this effect, I utilize standardized test data and the Spanish-English bilingual program of Madrid. The findings show a small but significant negative impact of the program on the performance of students in English-taught content. The negative effect is stronger around the median of the student’s ability distribution.
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ItemShould I stay or should I go? Hospital emergency department waiting times and demand(Wiley, 2018-03-01)In the absence of the price mechanism, hospital emergency departments rely on waiting times, alongside prioritisation mechanisms, to restrain demand and clear the market. This paper estimates by how much the number of treatments demanded is reduced by a higher waiting time. I use variation in waiting times for low-urgency patients caused by rare and resource-intensive high-urgency patients to estimate the relationship. I find that when waiting times are higher, more low-urgency patients are deterred from treatment and leave the hospital during the waiting period without being treated. The waiting time elasticity of demand for low-urgency patients is approximately −0.25 and is highest for the lowest-urgency patients.
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ItemContemporary women's secure psychiatric services in the United Kingdom: A qualitative analysis of staff views(WILEY, 2017-11)UNLABELLED: WHAT IS KNOWN ON THE SUBJECT?: Three pilot UK-only Women's Enhanced Medium Secure Services (WEMSS) was opened in 2007 to support women's movement from high secure care and provide a bespoke, women-only service. Evidence suggests that women's secure services are particularly challenging environments to work in and staffing issues (e.g., high turnover) can cause difficulties in establishing a therapeutic environment. Research in this area has focused on the experiences of service users. Studies which have examined staff views have focused on their feelings towards women in their care and the emotional burden of working in women's secure services. No papers have made a direct comparison between staff working in different services. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD TO EXISTING KNOWLEDGE?: This is the first study to explore the views and experiences of staff in the three UK WEMSS pilot services and contrast them with staff from women's medium secure services. Drawing upon data from eighteen semi-structured interviews (nine WEMSS, nine non-WEMSS), key themes cover staff perceptions of factors important for women's recovery and their views on operational aspects of services. This study extends our understanding of the experiences of staff working with women in secure care and bears relevance for staff working internationally, as well as in UK services. WHAT ARE THE IMPLICATIONS FOR PRACTICE?: The study reveals the importance of induction and training for bank and agency staff working in women's secure services. Further, regular clinical supervision should be mandatory for all staff so they are adequately supported. ABSTRACT: Introduction Women's Enhanced Medium Secure Services (WEMSS) is bespoke, gender-sensitive services which opened in the UK in 2007 at three pilot sites. This study is the first of its kind to explore the experiences of WEMSS staff, directly comparing them to staff in a standard medium secure service for women. The literature to date has focused on the experiences of service users or staff views on working with women in secure care. Aim This qualitative study, embedded in a multimethod evaluation of WEMSS, aimed to explore the views and experiences of staff in WEMSS and comparator medium secure services. Methods Qualitative interviews took place with nine WEMSS staff and nine comparator medium secure staff. Interviews focused on factors important for recovery, barriers to facilitating recovery and operational aspects of the service. Discussion This study provides a rare insight into the perspectives of staff working in UK women's secure services, an under-researched area in the UK and internationally. Findings suggest that the success of services, including WEMSS, is compromised by operational factors such as the use of bank staff. Implications for practice Comprehensive training and supervision should be mandatory for all staff, so best practice is met and staff adequately supported.
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ItemSocial Disadvantage and Education(WILEY, 2017-09)Abstract ‘Social disadvantage’ has many dimensions studied in various ways in the economics of education. Studies focus on its measurement, the characteristics of those experiencing it, its consequences and interventions to remedy some of its effects. Those likely to experience persistent disadvantage include lone parents, Indigenous Australians, people with disabilities and people with low educational attainment. It is children from these families whose educational progress we should closely monitor. Interventions can improve outcomes for disadvantaged children, but such programs need to be evaluated more rigorously in the future, and their evaluations released publicly to provide a sounder basis for future policy.
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ItemWelfare and Children's Well-Being(WILEY, 2017-09)Abstract This article discusses economic theories that arise from a household production model about the production of children's well‐being and explores how those theories inform features of income redistribution policy. Economic needs within families with children, concerns about interactions between the needs of parents and children, reasons for conditioning benefits or providing benefits directly to children, and the role of social services are each examined and discussed in the context of the Australian Family Tax Benefit program and recent proposals to reform Australian welfare programs.
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ItemEditors' introduction(WILEY, 2017-09)
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ItemDoes paying service providers by results improve recovery outcomes for drug misusers in treatment in England?(WILEY, 2018-02)AIM: To compare drug recovery outcomes in commissioning areas included in a 'payment by results' scheme with all other areas. DESIGN: Observational and data linkage study of the National Drug Treatment Monitoring System, Office for National Statistics mortality database and Police National Computer criminal records, for 2 years before and after introduction of the scheme. Pre-post controlled comparison compared outcomes in participating versus non-participating areas following adjustment for drug use, functioning and drug treatment status. SETTING: Drug services in England providing publicly funded, structured treatment. PARTICIPANTS: Adults in treatment (between 2010 and 2014): 154 175 (10 716 in participating areas, 143 459 non-participating) treatment journeys in the 2 years before and 148 941 (10 012 participating, 138 929 non-participating) after the introduction of the scheme. INTERVENTION: Scheme participation, with payment to treatment providers based on patient outcomes versus all other areas. MEASUREMENTS: Rate of treatment initiation; waiting time (> or < 3 weeks); treatment completion; and re-presentation; substance use; injecting; housing status; fatal overdose; and acquisitive crime. FINDINGS: In participating areas, there were relative decreases in rates of: treatment initiation [difference-in-differences odds ratio (DID OR) = 0.17, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.14, 0.21]; treatment completion (DID OR = 0.60, 95% CI = 0.53, 0.67); and treatment completion without re-presentation (DID OR = 0.63, 95% CI = 0.52, 0.77) compared with non-participating areas. Within treatment, relative abstinence (DID OR = 1.50, 95% CI = 1.30, 1.72) and non-injecting (DID OR = 1.32, 95% CI = 1.10, 1.59) rates were improved in participating areas. No significant changes in mortality, recorded crime or housing status were associated with the scheme. CONCLUSION: Drug addiction recovery services in England that are commissioned on a payment-by-results basis tend to have lower rates of treatment initiation and completion but higher rates of in-treatment abstinence and non-injecting than other services.