Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemDoes 'Work for the Dole' Work?( 2004-07)This study examines the effect of a community-based work experience program - Work for the Dole (WfD) - on transitions out of unemployment in Australia. To evaluate the WfD program a quasi-experimental exact matching approach is applied. Justification for the matching approach is a 'natural experiment' - limits on WfD project funding - that it is argued constituted a source of random assignment to the program. Participation in the WfD program is found to be associated with a large and significant adverse effect on the likelihood of exiting unemployment payments. The main potential explanation is existence of a 'lock-in' effect whereby program participants reduce job search activity.
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ItemEffects of activity test arrangements on exit from payments: the 9-month intensive review( 2003-09)Since 1996, recipients of unemployment-related welfare payments in Australia have been subject to a review process when their payment spell duration reaches 9 months. This review process is both a monitoring and counselling device: payment recipients are required to provide details of job search activity, while the payments administrator (Centrelink) provides job search advice and assistance. Using Centrelink administrative data over the period 1995 to 2000, this study examines the effects of these reviews on exit from unemployment-related payments. Limitations of the administrative data – in particular, the absence of information on the review process and the nature and precise timing of the review for each recipient – constrain the choice of empirical method. We therefore use duration analysis methods – specifically, estimation of empirical hazards and hazard models – to indirectly infer the impact of the review. Two alternative empirical approaches are taken. The first compares the hazard rate at the 9-month spell duration with hazard rates at 'nearby' spell durations. The second approach exploits a policy change which occurred in March 1996, when the review timing changed from 12 months to 9 months spell duration. For this approach, we compare the 9-month hazard rate in the post-March 1996 period with the 9-month hazard rate in the pre-March 1996 period. We do not find compelling evidence of a substantial or significant effect of the 9-month review using either of the empirical approaches.
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ItemLabour market models of unemployment in Australia( 2000-09)This paper reviews evidence on the equilibrium rate of unemployment and on causes of unemployment in Australia from empirical modelling of labour market outcomes. Three main types of models are reviewed - Phillips curve models; Multi-equation models; and Beveridge curve models. The paper begins with a simple review of labour market theory in order to provide some motivation for the empirical approaches that are examined. In the main part of the paper the three modelling approaches are reviewed. For each model the estimation methodology is described, main results on causes of unemployment from that approach are summarised, and an evaluation of the model is made.
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ItemDisaggregated models of unemployment in Australia( 2000-09)This paper reviews evidence on causes of unemployment in Australia from disaggregated modelling of the labour market. Three main types of modelling are considered. First, information on unemployment rates of labour force participants with different skills is presented, and analyses that seek to explain why unemployment varies between skill groups are described. Second, descriptive evidence on unemployment rates by state and neighbourhood is presented, and possible causes of regional differences in unemployment rates are assessed. Third, descriptive information on the distribution of unemployed persons by duration of unemployment spell is presented, and studies of the determinants of the duration of unemployment spells are summarised.
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ItemCross-country studies of unemployment in Australia( 2000-09)This paper reviews evidence on causes of unemployment in Australia from cross-country studies of the relation between the rate of unemployment and a range of macroeconomic and institutional factors. An overview of the evolution of this literature and of the possible institutional factors that might affect labour market outcomes is presented. The main findings from the different types of studies are summarised, and results from some studies are applied to show the particular set of factors that account for increases in the rate of unemployment in Australia between the 1960s and 1990s. Finally, an evaluation of some problems with cross-country studies is presente