Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemUnderstanding the Rising Trend in Female Labour Force Participation(Wiley, 2022-12-28)Female labour force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labour force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies: (i) changes in real wages; (ii) population composition changes; and (iii) changes in labour supply preference parameters. For the first time, all these factors are identified through a single consistent decomposition framework. A key result is that – despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere – changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labour force participation.
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ItemFuture Directions: Study Protocol for an Effectiveness-Implementation Hybrid Evaluation of a State-based Social Housing Strategy and Three Social Housing Programs(Edinburgh University Library, 2021)Background: In the Australian state of New South Wales nearly 60,000 approved applicants are waiting for social housing. Future Directions for Social Housing is a response to this challenge. This collection of housing programs aims to provide more social housing, support and incentives for leaving social housing and a better social housing experience. This document presents the protocol of the evaluation of these programs and the overarching Future Directions Strategy. Methods/Design: The evaluation will use a Type 1 effectiveness-implementation hybrid design, with an integrated, dual focus on assessing the effectiveness of Future Directions and better understanding the context for reform implementation. Program effectiveness will be examined using quasi-experimental techniques applied to linked administrative data. The implementation context will be examined via program level data, qualitative interviews and focus groups with stakeholders and tenants. Some quantitative survey and administrative data will also be used. Findings from the implementation evaluation will be used to inform and interpret the effectiveness evaluation. Economic evaluations will also be conducted. Discussion: This methodology will produce a high-quality evaluation of a large, complex government program which aims to facilitate rapid translational gains, real-time adoption of effective implementation strategies and generate actionable insights for policymaker
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ItemHave tax-transfer policy reforms increased inequality?(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020-02-01)Australia has experienced 28 years of uninterrupted annual economic growth. Since reaching a peak of 11 per cent in 1993, the unemployment rate declined sharply and has been below 6 per cent for most of the period since mid-2003. Yet despite unprecedented economic expansion in Australia since the mid-1990s, fiscal reform has created a less progressive tax-transfer system, contributing to rising income inequality.
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ItemUnderstanding the rising trend in female labour force participation(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020-05-01)Female labour force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labour force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labour supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labour force participation.
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ItemIntergenerational correlation of labor market outcomes(Springer US, 2016-03-01)This paper contributes to the relatively limited literature on the correlation of labor market outcomes of parents and their children. This literature is relevant to the larger literature on intergenerational income mobility since correlation in intergenerational labor market outcomes is one of the potential factors contributing to the intergenerational correlation of permanent incomes. In this paper, we consider the time spent in unemployment by both sons and daughters, while accounting for the potential endogeneity of education. Using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia data, we find evidence of a positive correlation of labor market outcomes between fathers and sons and, to a lesser extent, between mothers and daughters. In addition, the results reveal a significant relationship between parents’ and children’s education levels, indicating that there is an indirect association of parental education with their children’s labor market outcomes through education.