Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemAustralian Children Growing Up with Opportunity(WILEY, 2017-09)Abstract This article focuses on the early years of children in Australia. It discusses the inequality of opportunity as reflected in the statistics and the potential impacts of this inequality. A brief literature review is provided regarding the impact of formal childcare and preschool attendance on child development, with a specific focus on the impact for children from disadvantaged families. The article concludes with a discussion of possible policy directions to counteract the inequality of opportunity.
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ItemPaid Parental Leave evaluation: Phase 1(Commonwealth of Australia, 2012)
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ItemTaxes, transfers, family policies and paid work over the female life cycle(ANU Press, 2017)Gender inequality is profoundly unjust and in clear contradiction to the philosophy of the ‘fair go’. In spite of some action by recent governments, Australia has fallen behind in policy and outcomes, even as the G20 group of nations, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development and the International Monetary Fund are paying renewed attention to gender inequality. Tax, Social Policy and Gender presents new research on entrenched gender inequality in a comparative framework of human rights and fiscal sustainability. Ground-breaking empirical studies examine unequal returns to education for women and men, decision-making about child care by fathers and mothers, the history and gendered effects of the income tax and family payments, and women in the top 1 per cent. Contributors demonstrate how Australia’s tax, social security, child care, parental leave, education, work and retirement income policies intersect to compound gender inequality. Tax, Social Policy and Gender calls for a rethinking of equality and efficiency in tax and social policy and provides new policy solutions. It offers a pathway to achieve gender mainstreaming for women’s economic security and the wellbeing of all Australians.
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ItemBayesian arbitrage threshold analysis(American Statistical Association, 1999-07-01)A Bayesian estimation procedure is developed for estimating multiple-regime (multiple-threshold) error-correction models appropriate for deviations from financial arbitrage relationships. This approach has clear advantages over classical stepwise threshold autoregressive analysis. Unlike many other applications of threshold models, the knowledge of some costs involved in setting up arbitrage positions allows us to specify an informative prior. To illustrate the Bayesian procedure, we estimate a no-arbitrage band within which index futures arbitrage is not profitable despite (persistent) deviations from parity.
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ItemDemands for childcare and household labour supply in Australia(Blackwell Publishing Inc., 2005)Demands for formal and informal child care are estimated using a bivariate Tobit model. Predicted costs of child care are incorporated in the households’ budget constraint and a discrete choice labour supply model is estimated. Separate models are estimated for couples and lone parents. Increases in the prices and costs of child care lead to reductions in labour supply for lone parents and partnered mothers. Results suggest the average elasticities in Australia are closer to those found in the UK and are smaller than the estimates for Canada and the US. Effects are stronger for single parents and mothers facing low wages.
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ItemHealth status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia(JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, 2006-03)This paper examines the effect of health on labour force participation using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The potential endogeneity of health, especially self-assessed health, in the labour force participation equation is addressed by estimating the health equation and the labour force participation equation simultaneously. Taking into account the correlation between the error terms in the two equations, the estimation is conducted separately for males aged 15-49, males aged 50-64, females aged 15-49 and females aged 50-60. The results indicate that better health increases the probability of labour force participation for all four groups. However, the effect is larger for the older groups and for women. As for the feedback effect, it is found that labour force participation has a significant positive impact on older females' health, and a significant negative effect on younger males' health. For younger females and older males, the impact of labour force participation on health is not significant. The null-hypothesis of exogeneity of health to labour force participation is rejected for all groups.
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ItemAcademic performance, childhood economic resources, and the choice to leave school at age 16(Pergamon Press Ltd., 2007-06-01)A general international observation is that adolescents from disadvantaged families are more likely to leave school at age 16. In this paper we extend the literature on school-leaving decisions by using a new and extensive panel data set from New Zealand; and by examining the effect of family income, and personal and environmental characteristics since childhood on both academic performance and subsequent schooling choices. Results obtained from single equations and joint estimation, allowing for possible endogeneity of academic performance, reveal the importance of the role of academic performance in models of demand for education. Several factors that are at work for a long time, such as household income at different points in time, influence the school-leaving decision through academic performance. These results point to the role that stimulating academic performance can play in breaking cycles of disadvantage. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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ItemThe Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation(Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008-06)The aim of this paper is to analyse the work incentive effects of a change in the Australian tax and transfer system on lone parents in July 2000. To evaluate the effect of the total change only, microsimulation can be used; but for a subgroup of lone parents, a few components of this policy change can be analysed through two alternative approaches - microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation. Both approaches examine the effects on the probability of employment and on average working hours. The results from microsimulation show that the combined changes introduced in July 2000 - involving reduced withdrawal rates, changed family payments and lower income tax rates - have increased labour supply for lone parents to a moderate extent. The estimated effect on average working hours when using microsimulation is very close to the effect estimated in a quasi-experimental approach using matching techniques to control for alternative influences.
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ItemA comparison of family policy designs of Australia and Norway using microsimulation models(Kluwer Academic Publishers, 2010)Many of the Australian family support schemes are income-tested transfers, targeted towards the lower end of the income distribution, whereas the Norwegian approach is to provide subsidized non-parental care services and universal family payments. We contrast these two types of policies and discuss policy changes within these policy types by presenting results from simulations, using microsimulation models developed for Australia and Norway. Labor supply effects and distributional effects are discussed for the hypothetical policy changes of replacing the means-tested family payments of Australia by the Norwegian universal child benefit schedule and vice versa, and of reducing the childcare fees in both countries. The analysis highlights that the case for policy changes is restricted by the economic environment and the role of family policy in the two countries. Whereas there is considerable potential for increased labor supply of Australian mothers, it may have detrimental distributional effects and is likely to be costly. In Norway, mothers already have high labor supply and any adverse distributional effects of further labor supply incentives occur in an economy with low initial income dispersion. However, expenditure on family support is already high and the question is whether this should be further extended. © 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.
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ItemNurses' labour supply elasticities: The importance of accounting for extensive margins(ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2014-01)We estimate a multi-sector model of nursing qualification holders' labour supply in different occupations. A structural approach allows us to model the labour force participation decision, the occupational and shift-type choice, and the decision about hours worked as a joint outcome following from maximising a utility function. Disutility from work is allowed to vary by occupation and also by shift type in the utility function. Our results suggest that average wage elasticities might be higher than previous research has found. This is mainly due to the effect of wages on the decision to enter or exit the profession, which was not included in the previous literature, rather than from its effect on increased working hours for those who already work in the profession.