Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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    Effects of the Australian new tax system on government expenditure with and without behavioural changes
    Kalb, G. R. ; Kew, H. ; Scutella, R. ( 2003-04)
    This paper uses the Melbourne Institute Tax and Transfer Simulator to examine the effects of the New Tax System introduced in Australia in July 2000. First the whole set of changes is studied and then some of its components are discussed separately. From the results it is clear that the change in income tax rates and thresholds had the largest effect, because it affected a large proportion of the population whereas the changes to the benefit system are only relevant to smaller groups. Families with children benefited on average most from the changes, firstly through the changes in income taxes and secondly through the changes in Family Payments. However, families with children were also more likely to experience a loss indicating a wider range of positive and negative outcomes for this group.
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    Estimation of labour supply models for four separate groups in the Australian population
    Kalb, G. R. ( 2002-11)
    This paper estimates discrete choice models of labour supply for couples, single men, single women and sole parents in Australia using the Income and Housing Costs Survey of 1994/1995, 1995/1996, 996/1997 and 1997/1998. These models are estimated to serve as input in a microsimulation model, where they generate the behavioural responses to policy changes. The results are according to expectations, with preferences for work being higher for people with higher education, who are in their thirties. Furthermore, for women the presence of young children decreases the preference for work. Expected labour supply, predicted by using the estimated models, results in values close to the observed average.
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    Economic analyses of families: existing research findings
    Johnson, D. ; Kalb, G. R ( 2002-12)
    This paper provides a literature review on economics of the family. In particular, where decisions of families related to marriage, fertility, labour supply and home production are concerned. First an overview of the theory on these issues is given, followed by a selection of empirical studies. Finally, the review highlights some areas of interest for future research in Australia.
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    Estimation of wage equations in Australia: allowing for censored observations of labour supply
    Kalb, G. R. ; Scutella, R. ( 2002-05)
    This paper presents results for five separately estimated sets of participation and wage equations. The Australian working-age population is divided into sole parents, single men, single women, married men and married women. The approach in this paper takes the censoring of labour supply observations at 50 hours per week into account. The results for the wage equations are as anticipated with education, work experience and age increasing the expected wage. As expected, allowing for the censoring of labour supply reduces the predicted wage levels, particularly for married men who are most likely to work 50 hours or more.
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    The relationship between juvenile and adult crime
    Kalb, G. R. ; Williams, J. ( 2002-04)
    Previous studies find a positive relationship between juvenile and adult criminal involvement. Using data on males from the Delinquency in a Birth Cohort II study, we ivestigate whether this correlation is due to unobserved characteristics that increase the probability of both juvenile and adult crime, or whether it is due to true state dependence in crime. Distinguishing between state dependence and heterogeneity is important from a policy perspective. For example, if youthful crime causes adult crime, then policies that reduce a juvenile's criminal behavior will also reduce criminal behavior as an adult. Using a treatment effects model, we find evidence of both state dependence and heterogeneity in the relationship between juvenile and adult crime. The causal influence of delinquency on adult crime is largest for white males and males with fewer years of schooling. The findings suggest that preventive policies that divert juveniles from crime are a viable policy tool for reducing the overall rate of crime.