Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableBaby Bump or Baby Slump? COVID-19, Lockdowns, and their Effects on Births in Australia(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2024-03)This study examines changes in birth rates in Australia during the COVID-19 pandemic and the extent to which such changes were influenced by lockdowns. We use natality data at State and small regional area levels spanning the period from 2011 to 2022. In our empirical approach, we first take advantage of a unique quasi-experimental setting that arose in Victoria, Australia's second most populous State, during the first year of the pandemic. Victoria imposed a 111-day stay-at-home lockdown while other States and Territories enforced milder restrictions on social and economic activities. We then exploit lockdowns that lasted more than three months in Victoria and New South Wales in the second year of the pandemic. Within these quasi-experimental settings, our empirical approach was to first use monthly data at the State-level and estimate birth rate deviations from secular trends for the months affected by COVID-19 policies. We also estimate separate models to examine variations in births across regional areas with different compositions of Indigenous population, unemployment, low-income, and non-English speaking residents. Our findings reveal a nationwide fertility increase in 2021, but Victoria exhibited slower growth, especially in areas with higher unemployment, lower income, and more non-English speaking residents. In 2022, we find evidence of a gradual return of birth rates to pre-pandemic trends, though this is mainly concentrated in the major cities. While the second-year lockdowns had limited impacts, language-diverse areas still mostly experienced lower rates of growth in birth rates.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe impact of lockdowns during the COVID-19 pandemic on fertility intentions(ELSEVIER, 2023-01-01)Lockdown edicts during the COVID-19 pandemic have led to concerns about consequences for childbirth plans and decisions. Robust empirical research to either refute or confirm these concerns, however, is lacking. To evaluate the causal impact of lockdowns on fertility, we exploited a large sample of Australians (aged 18–45) from a nationally representative household panel survey and leveraged variation from a unique natural experiment that occurred in Australia in 2020: a lockdown imposed in the state of Victoria, but not elsewhere in Australia. Difference-in-differences models were estimated comparing changes in fertility intentions of persons who resided in Victoria during lockdown, or within four weeks of the lockdown being lifted, and those living elsewhere in Australia. Results revealed a significantly larger decline in reported intentions of having another child among women who lived through the protracted lockdown. The average effect was small, with fertility intentions estimated to fall by between 2.8% and 4.3% of the pre-pandemic mean. This negative effect was, however, more pronounced among those aged over 35 years, the less educated, and those employed on fixed-term contracts. Impacts on men's fertility intentions were generally negligible, but with a notable exception being Indigenous Australians.
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ItemThe Impact of the Pandemic on Gender Inequality in the Australian Labor Market(SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2022-04)We examine whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the associated policy responses have aggravated gender inequality in the Australian labor market. Using quarterly data from the Australian Labour Force Survey between November 2019 and November 2021, we compare labor force outcomes before and during the outbreak. Our findings indicate that while women fared worse than men in the first few months of the pandemic, labor market recovery was much more rapid for women. By the end of the period, on most indicators, women’s position in the labor market had improved relative to that of men.
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ItemJobless parents, unhealthy children? How past exposure to parental joblessness influences children's future health(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2022-09)RATIONALE: Despite a growing body of work investigating the combined effects of maternal and paternal joblessness for children's outcomes, very little is known about the long-term effects of parental joblessness on children's health, and especially health during adulthood. OBJECTIVE: The primary objective of this study is to directly test whether exposure to parental joblessness during childhood and early adulthood has adverse consequences for health in later years. This study also explores whether family resources, time inputs and family harmony mediate this relationship. METHODS: Multilevel generalized structural equation models describing processes influencing child health outcomes in later life are estimated using longitudinal data from 19 waves of the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey (N = 2875 individuals and 22,942 person-year observations). RESULTS: Parental joblessness, especially when experienced over a protracted period, is found to impose a penalty on children's mental health in later life, which is mostly not mediated by other variables. A significant negative association with general health is also found, but in this case family income and family harmony play a more important mediating role. CONCLUSION: The results suggest that it is not parental job loss per se that matters, but parents not being able to quickly find alternative employment. It is only children in families where joblessness is protracted and long-lasting who are at serious risk of long-term health problems. In sum, our results imply that the parental outcome that is most important for children's later health, and especially their mental health, is continuous paid employment. Such findings provide support for a jobs-first policy emphasis.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableWhy Parental Unemployment Matters for Children’s Educational Attainment: Empirical Evidence from the Netherlands(Oxford University Press (OUP), 2019)This study examines the effect of parents’ unemployment on their children’s subsequent educational attainment. Its theoretical significance lies on its focus to test the mediating role of parents’ changing work ethics during spells of unemployment. Integrating multiple survey and administrative data sources, our estimates are based on a sample of Dutch children (n = 812) who were exposed to their parents’ unemployment during the previous economic crisis in the early 1980s. Our results reveal a direct negative effect between fathers’ unemployment duration and their children’s educational attainment and also an indirect effect through mothers’ changing attitudes towards work. We also find empirical evidence that mothers’ and fathers’ whose views about work become more pessimistic lead to reduced educational attainment among their children.
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ItemIntergenerationally penalized? The long-term wage consequences of parental joblessness(ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, 2022-03)Studies of intergenerational stratification and mobility have long called for investigation of the joint role of mothers and fathers in affecting labor market outcomes of children. However, long-term effects of parental joblessness-where no co-residing parent is employed at a given time-are not well understood. Using longitudinal data (covering 9942 person-year observations from 2281 children) from the Household, Income, and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, this study investigates the long-term association between parental joblessness and children's wages during early adulthood. It examines whether these associations are mediated by family income during childhood and adolescence, educational attainment, and subsequent employment inactivity of the child, and whether exposure at earlier ages is associated with more detrimental effects. Multilevel mixed-effects models regressing hourly wages in early adulthood (observed over 2008-2018) on the proportion of time spent living in a household where no parent is employed (observed over 2001-2007) reveal two major findings. First, exposure to parental joblessness during childhood and adolescence is correlated with adverse wage outcomes during early adulthood in addition to previously documented employment penalties, with similar estimates across age groups. Second, mediation analyses indicate that household income, children's educational attainment, and children's own inactivity reduce the magnitude of this wage penalty, but do not completely offset it.