Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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A Managed Clinical Network for Cardiac Services: set-up, operation and impact on patient care.

Hamilton, ESTC ; Sullivan, M ; Donnan, T ; Taylor, ; Ikenwilo, ; SCOTT, A ; Baker, ; Wyke, ( 2005)
The validity of the SF-36 in an Australian National Household Survey: demonstrating the applicability of the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey to examination of health inequalities

Butterworth, P ; Crosier, T (BMC, 2004-10-07)

BACKGROUND: The SF-36 is one of the most widely used self-completion measures of health status. The inclusion of the SF-36 in the first Australian national household panel survey, the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey, provides an opportunity to investigate health inequalities. In this analysis we establish the psychometric properties and criterion validity of the SF-36 HILDA Survey data and examine scale profiles across a range of measures of socio-economic circumstance. METHODS: Data from 13,055 respondents who completed the first wave of the HILDA Survey were analysed to determine the psychometric properties of the SF-36 and the relationship of the SF-36 scales to other measures of health, disability, social functioning and demographic characteristics. RESULTS: Results of principle components analysis were similar to previous Australian and international reports. Survey scales demonstrated convergent and divergent validity, and different markers of social status demonstrated unique patterns of outcomes across the scales. CONCLUSION: Results demonstrated the validity of the SF-36 data collected during the first wave of the HILDA Survey and support its use in research examining health inequalities and population health characteristics in Australia.
Differences in the quality of primary medical care for CVD and diabetes across the NHS: evidence from the quality and outcomes framework

McLean, G ; Guthrie, B ; Sutton, M (BMC, 2007-05-29)

BACKGROUND: Health policy in the UK has rapidly diverged since devolution in 1999. However, there is relatively little comparative data available to examine the impact of this natural experiment in the four UK countries. The Quality and Outcomes Framework of the 2004 General Medical Services Contract provides a new and potentially rich source of comparable clinical quality data through which we compare quality of primary medical care for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke, hypertension and diabetes across the four UK countries. METHODS: A cross-sectional analysis was undertaken involving 10,064 general practices in England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The main outcome measures were prevalence rates for CHD, stroke, hypertension and diabetes. Achievement on 14 simple process, 3 complex process, 9 intermediate outcome and 5 treatment indicators for the four clinical areas. RESULTS: Prevalence varies by up to 28% between the four UK countries, which is not reflected in resource distribution between countries, and penalises practices in the high prevalence countries (Wales and Scotland). Differences in simple process measures across countries are small. Larger differences are found for complex process, intermediate outcome and treatment measures, most notably for Wales, which has consistently lower quality of care. Scotland has generally higher quality than England and Northern Ireland is most consistently the highest quality. CONCLUSION: Previously identified weaknesses in Wales related to waiting times appear to reflect a more general quality problem within NHS Wales. Identifying explanations for the observed differences is limited by the lack of comparable data on practice resources and organisation. Maximising the value of cross-jurisdictional comparisons of the ongoing natural experiment of health policy divergence within the UK requires more detailed examination of resource and organisational differences.
Dynamic economic models in discrete time: theory and empirical applications

FERGUSON, BS ; LIM, G (Routledge, 2003)

Economic behaviour is inherently dynamic. While things change continuously over time, much of economic analysis is based on discrete time, such as a month, a quarter, or a year, reflecting the periodic nature of data collecting and decisionmaking. This book introduces and develops the techniques of discrete time modelling starting with first-order difference equation models and building up to systems of difference equations, covering the following topics along the way: • nonlinear difference equation models • random walks and chaotic processes • optimization in discrete time models This easy-to-follow book will primarily be of interest to upper-level students carrying out economic modelling. The nature of the book – bridging a gap between dynamic economic models and empirical analysis – will mean that it will also appeal to all academics with an interest in econometrics and mathematical economics.
Bayesian arbitrage threshold analysis

Forbes, CS ; Kalb, GRJ ; Kofman, P (American Statistical Association, 1999-07-01)

A Bayesian estimation procedure is developed for estimating multiple-regime (multiple-threshold) error-correction models appropriate for deviations from financial arbitrage relationships. This approach has clear advantages over classical stepwise threshold autoregressive analysis. Unlike many other applications of threshold models, the knowledge of some costs involved in setting up arbitrage positions allows us to specify an informative prior. To illustrate the Bayesian procedure, we estimate a no-arbitrage band within which index futures arbitrage is not profitable despite (persistent) deviations from parity.
Demands for childcare and household labour supply in Australia

DOIRON, DJ ; KALB, GR (Blackwell Publishing Inc., 2005)

Demands for formal and informal child care are estimated using a bivariate Tobit model. Predicted costs of child care are incorporated in the households’ budget constraint and a discrete choice labour supply model is estimated. Separate models are estimated for couples and lone parents. Increases in the prices and costs of child care lead to reductions in labour supply for lone parents and partnered mothers. Results suggest the average elasticities in Australia are closer to those found in the UK and are smaller than the estimates for Canada and the US. Effects are stronger for single parents and mothers facing low wages.
Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia

Cai, LX ; Kalb, G (JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, 2006-03)

This paper examines the effect of health on labour force participation using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The potential endogeneity of health, especially self-assessed health, in the labour force participation equation is addressed by estimating the health equation and the labour force participation equation simultaneously. Taking into account the correlation between the error terms in the two equations, the estimation is conducted separately for males aged 15-49, males aged 50-64, females aged 15-49 and females aged 50-60. The results indicate that better health increases the probability of labour force participation for all four groups. However, the effect is larger for the older groups and for women. As for the feedback effect, it is found that labour force participation has a significant positive impact on older females' health, and a significant negative effect on younger males' health. For younger females and older males, the impact of labour force participation on health is not significant. The null-hypothesis of exogeneity of health to labour force participation is rejected for all groups.
Academic performance, childhood economic resources, and the choice to leave school at age 16

Maani, SA ; Kalb, G (Pergamon Press Ltd., 2007-06-01)

A general international observation is that adolescents from disadvantaged families are more likely to leave school at age 16. In this paper we extend the literature on school-leaving decisions by using a new and extensive panel data set from New Zealand; and by examining the effect of family income, and personal and environmental characteristics since childhood on both academic performance and subsequent schooling choices. Results obtained from single equations and joint estimation, allowing for possible endogeneity of academic performance, reveal the importance of the role of academic performance in models of demand for education. Several factors that are at work for a long time, such as household income at different points in time, influence the school-leaving decision through academic performance. These results point to the role that stimulating academic performance can play in breaking cycles of disadvantage. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
How do Administrative Arrangements Affect Exit from Unemployment Payments? The Case of the Job Seeker Diary in Australia

BORLAND, JI ; TSENG, Y (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2003)
Do Underlying Measures of Inflation Outperform Headline Rates? Evidence from Australian Data

Song, Lei Lei ( 2003-12)

Many central banks often focus on underlying measures of inflation when assessing inflation trends. This paper compares the accuracy of underlying measures of inflation relative to the headline rates by using Australian data. It is found that the underlying measures did have smaller errors in predicting the long-term trend in inflation than the quarterly headline rate in the sample period 1977 to 2001 and the inflation targeting subperiod starting from 1993, due to the large volatility of the headline rate. As compared to the year-ended headline rate, the statistical test results , however, support only the measure of market prices excluding volatile items, not the others. There is some weak evidence of the weighted median measure outperforming the headline rate in the subperiod after 1993. With respect to directional accuracy, the test statistics cannot reject the null hypothesis of an equal probability correctly predicting the moving direction of the inflation trend, though the headline rates have a higher probability.