Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemPsychometric Properties of a Risk Tool Across Indigenous Maori and European Samples in Aotearoa New Zealand: Measurement Invariance, Discrimination, and Calibration for Predicting Criminal Recidivism(SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2023-02-22)Due to recent legal cases highlighting a lack of cross-ethnicity validity research using correctional risk assessment tools, we evaluated psychometric properties of Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) scores across Māori (n = 1,812) and New Zealand (NZ) European samples (n = 1,211) in Aotearoa NZ. Using routine administrative data, our analyses suggested scoring properties were invariant across ethnicity for 15 of 19 items. Discrimination properties were also equivalent, but we observed a higher recidivism base rate among Māori participants, consistent with official statistics. Consequently, calibration analyses using a fixed follow-up (N = 372) demonstrated higher predicted recidivism rates for Māori participants at each DRAOR score. This suggests that Māori participants with similar levels of DRAOR-assessed need factors as NZ European participants experienced relatively greater continued justice contact. DRAOR users should prioritize delivering quality case management to clients, recognizing that both case-specific and systemic factors may underlie differential base rates.
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ItemUsing a reassessment framework to determine critical case management needs: DRAOR improves on LS/RNR’s predictive discrimination of short-term recidivism(Taylor and Francis Group, 2023)Two core tasks within community corrections are estimating recidivism risk and providing supportive case management to supervised clients. Recent studies demonstrated that regularly reassessing dynamic risk factors enhances the predictive accuracy of case management tools that identify immediate client needs. Using a large sample (N = 2076) of adults on parole in an Australian jurisdiction, we evaluated whether reassessed versus initial scores from Level of Service/Risk, Need, Responsivity (LS/ RNR) and Dynamic Risk Assessment for Offender Re-entry (DRAOR) better discriminated recidivists from non-recidivists. Using Cox regression survival analyses, we modelled risk for general and violent recidivism. Updated DRAOR scores incrementally predicted recidivism beyond initial scores, particularly showing that DRAOR Acute scores can identify needs related to immediate recidivism risk. Models combining LS/RNR criminal history scores with updated DRAOR Acute scores demonstrated the greatest predictive validity, suggesting case managers must consider acute dynamic risk factors within the context of long-term risk. We suggest that attending to criminal history, criminogenic needs and acute dynamic risk factors are each necessary for effective case management, with specific attention toward regularly reassessed acute dynamic risk factors among people identified with higher long-term risk and needs.
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ItemUnderstanding the Rising Trend in Female Labour Force Participation(Wiley, 2022-12-28)Female labour force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labour force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies: (i) changes in real wages; (ii) population composition changes; and (iii) changes in labour supply preference parameters. For the first time, all these factors are identified through a single consistent decomposition framework. A key result is that – despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere – changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labour force participation.
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ItemThe Beneficial Impacts of COVID-19 Lockdowns on Air Pollution: Evidence from Vietnam(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2022-05-12)
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ItemMeasuring, Modeling, and Forecasting the Mental Wealth of Nations(FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2022-07-28)The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed the deep links and fragility of economic, health and social systems. Discussions of reconstruction include renewed interest in moving beyond GDP and recognizing "human capital", "brain capital", "mental capital", and "wellbeing" as assets fundamental to economic reimagining, productivity, and prosperity. This paper describes how the conceptualization of Mental Wealth provides an important framing for measuring and shaping social and economic renewal to underpin healthy, productive, resilient, and thriving communities. We propose a transdisciplinary application of systems modeling to forecast a nation's Mental Wealth and understand the extent to which policy-mediated changes in economic, social, and health sectors could enhance collective mental health and wellbeing, social cohesion, and national prosperity. Specifically, simulation will allow comparison of the projected impacts of a range of cross-sector strategies (education sector, mental health system, labor market, and macroeconomic reforms) on GDP and national Mental Wealth, and provide decision support capability for future investments and actions to foster Mental Wealth. Finally, this paper introduces the Mental Wealth Initiative that is harnessing complex systems science to examine the interrelationships between social, commercial, and structural determinants of mental health and wellbeing, and working to empirically challenge the notion that fostering universal social prosperity is at odds with economic and commercial interests.
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ItemThe Impact of the Pandemic on Gender Inequality in the Australian Labor Market(SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC, 2022-04-01)We examine whether the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and the associated policy responses have aggravated gender inequality in the Australian labor market. Using quarterly data from the Australian Labour Force Survey between November 2019 and November 2021, we compare labor force outcomes before and during the outbreak. Our findings indicate that while women fared worse than men in the first few months of the pandemic, labor market recovery was much more rapid for women. By the end of the period, on most indicators, women’s position in the labor market had improved relative to that of men.
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ItemGenerational Differences in Subjective Well-Being in Australia(SPRINGER, 2022-03-29)Abstract We test for differences in subjective well-being across four pre-defined generations in Australia born between 1928 and 1994: The Lucky Generation, Baby Boomers, Generation X, and Generation Y. We focus on overall life satisfaction and range of domain satisfactions. We find that Baby Boomers are less satisfied with life than thosce born before and after them. We observe similar patterns when considering domains such as finances and housing. However, differences in satisfaction with employment opportunities show the opposite pattern, with Baby Boomers and Generation X’s reporting higher satisfaction as compared to the Lucky Generation and especially those from Generation Y. Family and labour marketcv status have greater effects than cohort of birth on many of the domains studied; however, the cohort effects are significant and non-negligible, particularly concerning satisfaction with life, employment opportunities, and housing.
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ItemPredictors of social participation: evidence from repeated cross-sectional population surveys in England(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2022-03-17)BACKGROUND: Social participation is linked to better health and well-being. However, there is limited research on the individual and area-level predictors of participation. This study aims to determine the characteristics associated with participation, particularly the impact of community asset availability. METHODS: We used data from 34 582 adult respondents to the nationally representative Community Life Survey from 2013 to 2018. We measured social participation by reported participation in 15 types of groups. We used probit and negative binomial regression models and included a wide range of individual, household and area characteristics, and availability of 14 types of community assets. RESULTS: The following characteristics were associated with higher levels of participation: being female (+3.0 percentage points (p.p.) (95% CI 1.8 to 4.1p.p.), Black, Asian or Minority Ethnicity (+3.7p.p. (1.9 to 5.5p.p.)), homeownership (+4.1 p.p. (2.7 to 5.6p.p.)) and living in a rural area (+2.1p.p. (0.5 to 3.6p.p)). Respondents from the most deprived areas were less likely to participate than those in average deprivation areas (-3.9p.p. (-5.9 to -1.99p.p.)). Higher availability of community assets was associated with increased participation in groups. The effect of availability on participation varied by type of asset. CONCLUSION: Improving community assets infrastructure in high deprivation and urban areas would encourage more social participation in these areas.
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ItemPoor psychosocial job conditions increase sickness absence: evidence from the PATH Through Life Mid-Aged Cohort(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2022-09-01)OBJECTIVES: Evidence is mounting that poor psychosocial job conditions increase sickness absence, but there is a need for further rigorous prospective research to isolate the influence of psychosocial job quality from other measured and unmeasured confounders. This study used four waves of prospective longitudinal data (spanning 12 years) to investigate the extent to which increases in poor psychosocial job quality are associated with greater relative risk of day of sickness absence. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: Data were from the Australian PATH Through Life cohort study. The analyses adopted hybrid-regression estimations that isolated the effect of within-person change in psychosocial job quality on sickness absence over time. PARTICIPANTS: Participants were from a midlife cohort aged 40-44 at baseline (7644 observations from 2221 participants). PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURE: Days sickness absence in the past 4 weeks. RESULTS: The results show that after adjusting for a wide range of factors as well as unmeasured between-person differences in job quality, each additional psychosocial job adversity was associated with a 12% increase in the number of days of sickness absence (relative risk ratio: 1.12, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.21). Increases in psychosocial job adversity were also related to greater functional impairment (relative risk ratio: 1.17 (1.05 to 1.30)). CONCLUSION: The results of this study strengthen existing research highlighting the importance of addressing poor psychosocial job quality as a risk factor for sickness absence.
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ItemChild marriage: using the Indonesian family life survey to examine the lives of women and men who married at an early age(SPRINGER, 2022-08-06)Abstract An understanding of the experiences of men and women who marry before adulthood is important in motivating social change. Using fixed effects estimation (the inclusion of geographic fixed effects at diminishing levels of aggregation and sister fixed effects where possible) on panel data from the Indonesian Family Life Survey (IFLS), we follow the lives of a sample of 40,800 women and men for up to two decades and examine a wide range of factors associated with child marriage. We examine the lives of both girls and boys who marry early, and the differential experience of girls marrying older men versus young boys. Child marriage is found to be associated with lesser educational attainment, lower earnings and less say in household decision-making, for both men and women. Women are less likely to have a medically-supervised birth and their children are more likely to die, be stunted and perform worse on cognitive tests. Negative factors are mostly exacerbated when young girls marry similarly underage men.