Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemImpacts from Delaying Access to Retirement Benefits on Welfare Receipt and Expenditure: Evidence from a Natural Experiment(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2016)Governments are responding to fiscal pressures associated with aging populations by increasing the eligibility age for publicly-funded retirement benefits. However, recent studies show large resulting increases in the receipt of disability and unemployment benefits, which raises concern that welfare savings are offset by increased inflows into alternative payments. Using administrative data to examine the impacts of female eligibility age increases in Australia, we find little evidence of this. Instead, most of the increase is because the delay mechanically extends the receipt time of people already on alternative payments. The implication is that fiscal savings are not jeopardized by opportunistic behaviour.
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ItemWhat Happens to Students with Low Reading Proficiency at 15? Evidence from Australia(WILEY, 2017-12)While illiterate adults are disadvantaged in the labour market, it is unclear whether low reading proficiency in school diminishes employment prospects in adulthood. We fill this gap using data on participants in the 2003 Program of International Student Assessment who were tracked to age 25 in the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth. We find no difference in full‐time employment rates or earning capacity of jobs attained at age 25 associated with low reading proficiency at 15. Those with low reading proficiency are found to avoid negative effects through high rates of participation and positive outcomes from vocational education and training.
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ItemMaking ‘good’ choices: the impact of entitlement models on upskilling later in life(National Centre for Vocational Education Research, 2017)
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ItemThe Power of Self-Interest: Effects of Education and Training Entitlements in Later-Life(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2017)Education and training among the working-age population has become an increasingly important policy issue as working lives have lengthened and the pace of technological change has quickened. This paper describes the effects of a reform that replaced a supply-driven model, in which government selected the number and providers of publicly subsidised Vocational Education and Training (VET), with a demand-driven approach that broadened access to adult training and gave working-age individuals greater freedom of VET course choice. Difference-in-differences analysis reveals that the large-scale reform, which was introduced in the Australian state of Victoria from 2009, substantively increased participation in VET among the population aged 25-54, and corresponded with an improved match between VET courses taken and objective ex ante measures of labour market demand. Indeed, the scheme was so popular that it resulted in a budget over-run by 2012 of $400 million (AUD, on a total budget of $1.3 billion).
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ItemEarly Academic Outcomes of Funded Children with Disability(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2017-10-01)People with disability face considerable difficulty participating fully in work and the wider community, due in part to poor schooling outcomes. To enable students with disability to meet their potential, the governments provide extra funding to schools to help them meet their special learning needs. Such funding includes extra funding for meeting diverse student needs under formula-based block grant arrangements, funding for specific programs and funding that is targeted at the individual level. In this study, we take a first-step in examining outcomes from targeted funding, over and above outcomes from other funding sources, in mainstream public schools in Victoria under the Program for Student with Disability (PSD). We use information on disability and child development in the first year of school from the Australian Education and Development Census (AEDC), linked to Year 3 NAPLAN and information on PSD receipt from Year 1 to Year 3. We find that only around 17% of mainstream public-school students with disability who are in the bottom quarter of the state developmentally receive ongoing targeted funding under the PSD between 2012 and 2015. Using multivariate regression and rich administrative student data to control for differences between students with disability who do and do not receive targeted funding, we find that the receipt of PSD is strongly associated with being exempt from sitting NAPLAN, which obstructs any proper examination of the educational outcomes from funding. These results raise the prospect of extending existing funding according to developmental need, but caution that any such change should be accompanied with measures that ensure funding outcomes can be assessed.
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ItemThe relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive development(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2017-09-13)This is the first detailed study of the relation between cesarean birth and child cognitive development. We measure differences in child cognitive performance at 4 to 9 years of age between cesarean-born and vaginally-born children (n = 3,666) participating in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). LSAC is a nationally representative birth cohort surveyed biennially. Using multivariate regression, we control for a large range of confounders related to perinatal risk factors and the socio-economic advantage associated with cesarean-born children. Across several measures, we find that cesarean-born children perform significantly below vaginally-born children, by up to a tenth of a standard deviation in national numeracy test scores at age 8-9. Estimates from a low-risk sub-sample and lower-bound analysis suggest that the relation is not spuriously related to unobserved confounding. Lower rates of breastfeeding and adverse child and maternal health outcomes that are associated with cesarean birth are found to explain less than a third of the cognitive gap, which points to the importance of other mechanisms such as disturbed gut microbiota. The findings underline the need for a precautionary approach in responding to requests for a planned cesarean when there are no apparent elevated risks from vaginal birth.
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ItemFully integrating upper-secondary vocational and academic courses: A flexible new way?(Elsevier, 2016-12-01)The tracking of students in upper-secondary school is often criticised for narrowing the post-secondary pathways of student in the vocational education and training (VET) track, which can stigmatise VET. To tackle this problem, countries have introduced courses that integrate aspects of VET and academic study, which provide the dual purpose of preparing students for work and vocational study and providing university pathways for more academic students in the VET track. In this study we assess the latter purpose by examining the outcomes of university aspirants who take these courses in their final year of school. Using rich survey and administrative data from Australia and propensity score matching we find that these courses are associated with lower academic performance and a lower chance of attaining a university offer. Decomposition results show that poor performance in integrated courses is the main driver, which points to potential tension between the two purposes.
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ItemWhat Happens to Students with Low Reading Proficiency at 15? Evidence from Australia(Wiley, 2017-12)While is it widely accepted that adults with poor reading skills have inferior labour market outcomes, little is known about whether low reading proficiency in school is a precursor to inferior labour market outcomes in adulthood. We fill this gap in the literature using education and labour market information to age 25 years for participants in the 2003 Program of International Student Assessment (PISA) who were tracked from age 15 in the 2003 Longitudinal Survey of Australian Youth. We find no difference in full-time employment rates or earning capacity of jobs attained at age 25 between those who had low and medium reading proficiency at age 15. Supporting analysis suggests that high rates of participation and positive outcomes from vocational education and training (VET) among those with low reading proficiency helps them avoid any negative effects from poor achievement in school. These results highlight the role of accessible VET pathways in facilitating the labour market participation of youth who may become disengaged from learning in school.
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ItemVocational Education and Training: A Pathway to the Straight and Narrow(Melbourne Institute of Applied and Economic Social Research, 2016)
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ItemLong-Term Outcomes from Australian Vocational Education(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2016)