Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemThe Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Labor Supply and Employment Outcomes in Australia(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2020-07-02)The introduction of the Australian Paid Parental Leave scheme in 2011 provides a rare opportunity to estimate the impacts of publicly funded paid leave on mothers in the first year postpartum. The almost universal coverage of the scheme, coupled with detailed survey data collected specifically for the scheme’s evaluation, means that eligibility for paid leave under the scheme can be plausibly taken as exogenous, following a standard propensity score-matching exercise. Consistent with much of the existing literature, the study finds a positive impact on mothers’ taking leave in the first half year and on mothers’ probability of returning to work in the first year. The paper provides new evidence of a positive impact on continuing in the same job under the same conditions, where previous conclusions have been mixed. Further, it shows that disadvantaged mothers – low income, less educated, without access to employer-funded leave – respond most.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableZero Hours Contracts and Their Growth(Wiley, 2020-09-01)This article studies the prevalence and nature of zero hours contracts (ZHCs) in the UK labour market. It is widely argued that the headline count of ZHC workers based on the Labour Force Survey historically underestimated the number of workers in ZHC jobs. Here, we argue that this likely continues to be the case, particularly if one considers other, similar, no-guaranteed-hours jobs alongside ZHCs. ZHC jobs and workers are heterogeneous, but ZHCs have become increasingly concentrated among young workers, full-time students, migrants, black and minority ethnic workers, in personal service and elementary occupations, and in the distribution, accommodation and restaurant sector over time. Compared to other forms of employment, median wages in ZHC jobs have also fallen. The most common prior labour market state for ZHC workers is non-ZHC employment, particularly part-time employment, with part of the reported growth in ZHCs driven by reclassification of existing employment relationships. Finally, we show that growth in public awareness of ZHCs contributed substantially to recent growth in reported ZHCs, particularly over the period 2013/14.
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ItemDoes drug use lead to homelessness for young, disadvantaged people?(Royal Statistical Society, 2019-06-01)Drug use among homeless young people tends to be higher than drug use among those who are not homeless. Is that because drug use causes homelessness, as is often assumed? Duncan McVicar, Julie Moschion and Jan van Ours investigate.
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ItemEarly illicit drug use and the age of onset of homelessness(Wiley, 2019-01)We investigate the effect of taking up daily use of cannabis on the onset of homelessness by using Australian data. We use a bivariate simultaneous mixed proportional hazard model to address potential biases due to common unobservable factors and reverse causality. We find that taking up daily use of cannabis substantially increases the probability of transitioning into homelessness for young men but not young women. In contrast, the onset of homelessness increases the probability of taking up daily use of cannabis for young women but not for young men. In a trivariate extension we find that the use of other illicit drugs at least weekly has no additional effect on transitions into homelessness for either gender but there is a large if imprecisely estimated effect of onset of homelessness on taking up weekly use of such drugs for young women.
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ItemAchievement effects from new peers: Who matters to whom?(Elsevier, 2018-10-01)This paper presents estimates of achievement-related peer effects on school students’ literacy using data from national test scores, across multiple literacy measures and student cohorts, for the population of public secondary school students in Years 7 and 9 (aged 12/13 and 14/15 years) in the Australian state of Victoria. Identification is achieved via individual fixed effects and by distinguishing between secondary school peers who attended the same primary school as the individual and those who did not. Estimates of peer effects are based on the new peers, whose primary school achievement could not have been affected by the individual. The results provide strong evidence for the existence of peer effects, with small but positive and statistically significant effects from having higher-achieving peers on average and from having a higher proportion of very high-achieving peers. Further, it is individuals in the middle of the ability distribution who benefit most from having high achieving peers.
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ItemCourse Choice and Achievement Effects of a System-Wide Vocational Education and Training Voucher Scheme for Young People(SAGE Publications, 2018)Vocational education and training provision for young people is a crucial but often maligned part of the wider education sector. A common criticism, and motivation for numerous reforms across countries where training is predominantly classroom-based, is that too much training is low quality and unrelated to skill needs. This article examines the effects of a major Australian reform—replacing a centrally planned model with a system-wide voucher scheme—aimed at addressing these weaknesses. The reform led to large increases in private college enrollments, improved match between course choice and employer demand, and improved student achievement, with no adverse impact on equity.
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ItemFrom substance use to homelessness or vice versa?(PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2015-07)Homelessness is associated with substance use, but whether substance use precedes or follows homelessness is unclear. We investigate the nature of the relationship between homelessness and substance use using data from the unique Australian panel dataset Journeys Home collected in 4 surveys over the period from October 2011 to May 2013. Our data refer to 1325 individuals who were homeless or at risk of becoming homeless. We investigate dynamics in homelessness and substance use over the survey period. We find that the two are closely related: homeless individuals are more likely to be substance users and substance users are more likely to be homeless. These relationships, however, are predominantly driven by observed and unobserved individual characteristics which cause individuals to be both more likely to be homeless and to be substance users. Once we take these personal characteristics into account it seems that homelessness does not affect substance use, although we cannot rule out that alcohol use increases the probability that an individual becomes homeless. These overall relationships also hide some interesting heterogeneity by 'type' of homelessness.
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ItemWork-Related Training and the Probability of Transitioning from Non-Permanent to Permanent Employment(Wiley, 2016-01-01)It is widely believed that work-related training increases a worker's probability of moving up the job-quality ladder. This is usually couched in terms of effects on wages, but it has also been argued that training increases the probability of moving from non-permanent forms of employment to more permanent employment. This hypothesis is tested using nationally representative panel data for Australia, a country where the incidence of non-permanent employment, and especially casual employment, is high by international standards. While a positive association between participation in work-related training and the subsequent probability of moving from either casual or fixed-term contract employment to permanent employment is observed among men, this is shown to be driven not by a causal impact of training on transitions but by differences between those who do and do not receive training, that is selection bias.
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ItemWhy do disability benefit rolls vary between regions? A review of the evidence from the USA and the UK(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2006-07)
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