Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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Introduction

Broadway, B (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2022-12-01)
Literature review on the impact of welfare policy design on children and youth

Broadway, B ; LoRiggio, T ; Ryan, C ; Zhu, A (WILEY, 2022-09)

Abstract We review the empirical literature on the causal effects of welfare‐to‐work policies on the employment of low‐income parents and the intergenerational impacts on their children. We focus on welfare policies that change benefit levels, activity requirements, time limits, and in‐work benefits. These policies may affect children through several mechanisms, including changes in family income, time spent with parents, and attitudes towards work or welfare. To unpack these mechanisms and understand the net effects of these policies, we assess how the impact on children varies across outcomes, home environments and institutional settings. Overall, the literature shows that income tax credits are an attractive policy, simultaneously increasing employment and improving child development outcomes. In contrast, other policies that boost employment either have no or negative impacts on child development.
Policy Forum: Rethinking Australia's Migration Policy

Broadway, B (WILEY, 2022-05-03)
The Impact of Paid Parental Leave on Labor Supply and Employment Outcomes in Australia

Broadway, B ; Kalb, G ; McVicar, D ; Martin, B (ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2020-07-02)

The introduction of the Australian Paid Parental Leave scheme in 2011 provides a rare opportunity to estimate the impacts of publicly funded paid leave on mothers in the first year postpartum. The almost universal coverage of the scheme, coupled with detailed survey data collected specifically for the scheme’s evaluation, means that eligibility for paid leave under the scheme can be plausibly taken as exogenous, following a standard propensity score-matching exercise. Consistent with much of the existing literature, the study finds a positive impact on mothers’ taking leave in the first half year and on mothers’ probability of returning to work in the first year. The paper provides new evidence of a positive impact on continuing in the same job under the same conditions, where previous conclusions have been mixed. Further, it shows that disadvantaged mothers – low income, less educated, without access to employer-funded leave – respond most.
Introduction

Broadway, B (WILEY, 2021-06-01)

Overseas migration has shaped Australia'ssocial and economic life for many decades.Starting in 1946, when the post‐warmigration program began under theslogan‘populate or perish', migration hasincreased Australia's population by over 5million individuals over the course of60 years (Australian Bureau of Statistics2021a). Beginning in the early 2000s,Australia's migration intake increasedeven further, and net overseas migrationhas increased Australia's population byaround 200,000 individuals every yearsince 2005–2006 (Figure 1). In itslatest pre‐pandemic report on Australia'smigration intake, the ProductivityCommission noted that migration wasAustralia's de facto population policy(Productivity Commission 2016, p. 2).The sheer size of Australia's migrationprogram implies that its economic andsocial effects are likely far‐reaching. Butit is far from clear which policy settings—including the exact level of immigration,composition of permanent and temporaryvisa streams, migrant's skills mix andpolicies to support their settlementexperience—will achieve the best possibleoutcomes for the existing population andfor new arrivals. A main focus in thisdebate has been on the effect of migrationon the labour market: what are the employ-ment outcomes of new migrants and how dothey shape the labour market outcomes forthe existing population and Australian businesses.
Reducing the Generosity and Increasing the Conditionality of Welfare Benefits for People with Disability: "Turning the Supertanker" or "Squeezing the Balloon"?*

Broadway, B ; McVicar, D (WILEY, 2021-07)

Abstract We compare outcomes of disability benefit applicants before and after a major Australian reform of disability benefits, with two groups of applicants who fulfilled the same medical impairment criteria accepted or rejected based only on application date. The reform reduced the generosity and increased the conditionality of welfare payments by shifting partially disabled claimants from disability benefits to unemployment benefits. This led to increases in the probability not only of switching out of unemployment benefits on to alternative benefits, but also of exiting welfare altogether. However, because those who exited had a higher probability of subsequently returning to welfare, the reform had no impact on the proportion receiving welfare 12 or 24 months later.
Introduction

Broadway, B (WILEY, 2021-03)
Keep calm and consume? Subjective uncertainty and precautionary savings

Broadway, B ; Haisken-DeNew, JP (Springer (part of Springer Nature), 2019-07)

This paper estimates the effect of income uncertainty on assets held in accounts and cash, and finds substantial empirical evidence for precautionary savings. Using household-level panel data, it explicitly distinguishes between ‘real’ income uncertainty the household is actually exposed to, and ‘perceived’ income uncertainty. It finds that the latter substantially increases precautionary savings above and beyond the effect of ‘real’ income uncertainty. The effect of subjective economic uncertainty on behaviour has only begun to show up after the Great Recession. The economic crisis appears to have shifted households’ willingness to forgo current consumption for insurance pruposes. Our results imply that households save above their optimal level especially after and during a crisis, potentially exacerbating the economic downturn.
Nurses' labour supply elasticities: The importance of accounting for extensive margins

Hanel, B ; Kalb, G ; Scott, A (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2014-01)

We estimate a multi-sector model of nursing qualification holders' labour supply in different occupations. A structural approach allows us to model the labour force participation decision, the occupational and shift-type choice, and the decision about hours worked as a joint outcome following from maximising a utility function. Disutility from work is allowed to vary by occupation and also by shift type in the utility function. Our results suggest that average wage elasticities might be higher than previous research has found. This is mainly due to the effect of wages on the decision to enter or exit the profession, which was not included in the previous literature, rather than from its effect on increased working hours for those who already work in the profession.
Do Financial Incentives Influence GPs' Decisions to Do After-hours Work? A Discrete Choice Labour Supply Model

Broadway, B ; Kalb, G ; Li, J ; Scott, A (WILEY, 2017-12)

This paper analyses doctors' supply of after-hours care (AHC), and how it is affected by personal and family circumstances as well as the earnings structure. We use detailed survey data from a large sample of Australian General Practitioners (GPs) to estimate a structural, discrete choice model of labour supply and AHC. This allows us to jointly model GPs' decisions on the number of daytime-weekday working hours and the probability of providing AHC. We simulate GPs' labour supply responses to an increase in hourly earnings, both in a daytime-weekday setting and for AHC. GPs increase their daytime-weekday working hours if their hourly earnings in this setting increase, but only to a very small extent. GPs are somewhat more likely to provide AHC if their hourly earnings in that setting increase, but again, the effect is very small and only evident in some subgroups. Moreover, higher earnings in weekday-daytime practice reduce the probability of providing AHC, particularly for men. Increasing GPs' earnings appears to be at best relatively ineffective in encouraging increased provision of AHC and may even prove harmful if incentives are not well targeted.