Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications

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    Bayesian arbitrage threshold analysis
    Forbes, CS ; Kalb, GRJ ; Kofman, P (American Statistical Association, 1999-07-01)
    A Bayesian estimation procedure is developed for estimating multiple-regime (multiple-threshold) error-correction models appropriate for deviations from financial arbitrage relationships. This approach has clear advantages over classical stepwise threshold autoregressive analysis. Unlike many other applications of threshold models, the knowledge of some costs involved in setting up arbitrage positions allows us to specify an informative prior. To illustrate the Bayesian procedure, we estimate a no-arbitrage band within which index futures arbitrage is not profitable despite (persistent) deviations from parity.
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    Demands for childcare and household labour supply in Australia
    DOIRON, DJ ; KALB, GR (Blackwell Publishing Inc., 2005)
    Demands for formal and informal child care are estimated using a bivariate Tobit model. Predicted costs of child care are incorporated in the households’ budget constraint and a discrete choice labour supply model is estimated. Separate models are estimated for couples and lone parents. Increases in the prices and costs of child care lead to reductions in labour supply for lone parents and partnered mothers. Results suggest the average elasticities in Australia are closer to those found in the UK and are smaller than the estimates for Canada and the US. Effects are stronger for single parents and mothers facing low wages.
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    Health status and labour force participation: evidence from Australia
    Cai, LX ; Kalb, G (JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, 2006-03-01)
    This paper examines the effect of health on labour force participation using the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA) Survey. The potential endogeneity of health, especially self-assessed health, in the labour force participation equation is addressed by estimating the health equation and the labour force participation equation simultaneously. Taking into account the correlation between the error terms in the two equations, the estimation is conducted separately for males aged 15-49, males aged 50-64, females aged 15-49 and females aged 50-60. The results indicate that better health increases the probability of labour force participation for all four groups. However, the effect is larger for the older groups and for women. As for the feedback effect, it is found that labour force participation has a significant positive impact on older females' health, and a significant negative effect on younger males' health. For younger females and older males, the impact of labour force participation on health is not significant. The null-hypothesis of exogeneity of health to labour force participation is rejected for all groups.
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    Academic performance, childhood economic resources, and the choice to leave school at age 16
    Maani, SA ; Kalb, G (Pergamon Press Ltd., 2007-06-01)
    A general international observation is that adolescents from disadvantaged families are more likely to leave school at age 16. In this paper we extend the literature on school-leaving decisions by using a new and extensive panel data set from New Zealand; and by examining the effect of family income, and personal and environmental characteristics since childhood on both academic performance and subsequent schooling choices. Results obtained from single equations and joint estimation, allowing for possible endogeneity of academic performance, reveal the importance of the role of academic performance in models of demand for education. Several factors that are at work for a long time, such as household income at different points in time, influence the school-leaving decision through academic performance. These results point to the role that stimulating academic performance can play in breaking cycles of disadvantage. © 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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    The Effect of Financial Incentives on Labour Supply: Evidence for Lone Parents from Microsimulation and Quasi-Experimental Evaluation
    CAI, L ; KALB, G ; TSENG, Y ; VU, THH (Institute for Fiscal Studies, 2008-06)
    The aim of this paper is to analyse the work incentive effects of a change in the Australian tax and transfer system on lone parents in July 2000. To evaluate the effect of the total change only, microsimulation can be used; but for a subgroup of lone parents, a few components of this policy change can be analysed through two alternative approaches - microsimulation and quasi-experimental evaluation. Both approaches examine the effects on the probability of employment and on average working hours. The results from microsimulation show that the combined changes introduced in July 2000 - involving reduced withdrawal rates, changed family payments and lower income tax rates - have increased labour supply for lone parents to a moderate extent. The estimated effect on average working hours when using microsimulation is very close to the effect estimated in a quasi-experimental approach using matching techniques to control for alternative influences.
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    Measuring welfare changes in labour supply models
    Creedy, J ; Kalb, G (BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2005-12-01)