Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research - Research Publications
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ItemHave tax-transfer policy reforms increased inequality?(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020-02-01)Australia has experienced 28 years of uninterrupted annual economic growth. Since reaching a peak of 11 per cent in 1993, the unemployment rate declined sharply and has been below 6 per cent for most of the period since mid-2003. Yet despite unprecedented economic expansion in Australia since the mid-1990s, fiscal reform has created a less progressive tax-transfer system, contributing to rising income inequality.
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ItemUnderstanding the rising trend in female labour force participation(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2020-05-01)Female labour force participation has increased tremendously since World War II in developed countries. Prior research provides piecemeal evidence identifying some drivers of change but largely fails to present a consistent story. Using a rare combination of data and modelling capacity available in Australia, we develop a new decomposition approach to explain rising female labour force participation since the mid-1990s. The approach allows us to identify, for the first time, the role of tax and transfer policy reforms as well as three other factors that have been shown to matter by earlier studies. These are (i) changes in real wages, (ii) population composition changes, and (iii) changes in labour supply preference parameters. A key result is that –despite the ongoing emphasis of public policy on improved work incentives for women in Australia and elsewhere– changes in financial incentives due to tax and transfer policy reforms have contributed relatively little to achieve these large increases in participation. Instead, the other three factors drive the increased female labour force participation.
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ItemThe Dutch labour market early on in the COVID-19 outbreak: Regional coronavirus hotspots and the national lockdown(Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, 2020-09-01)We explore the impact of COVID-19 hotspots and regional lockdowns on the Dutch labour market. Using weekly administrative panel microdata for 50 per cent of Dutch employees until the end of March 2020, we study whether individual labour market outcomes, as measured by employment, working hours and hourly wages, were more strongly affected in provinces where COVID-19 confirmed cases, hospitalizations and mortality were relatively high. We do not observe a region-specific impact of COVID-19 on labour market outcomes. The results suggest individual characteristics are more important, including the employee’s age, type of contract and type of job. The evidence suggests that the decline of the labour market was all due to the impacts from the government-enforced lockdown and higher virus case numbers did not reinforce this decline. This suggests that preventive health measures should be at the regional level, isolating hotspots from low-risk areas.
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ItemEssential work and emergency childcare: Identifying gender differences in COVID-19 effects on labour demand and supply(Melbourne Institute: Applied Economic & Social Research, 2020)We examine whether the COVID-19 crisis affects women and men differently in terms of employment, working hours and hourly wages outcomes, and whether the effects are demand or supply driven. COVID-19 impacts are studied using administrative data on all Dutch employees up to 30 June 2020, focusing on the national lockdown and the emergency childcare for essential workers in the Netherlands. First, we find that the impact of COVID-19 is much larger for non-essential workers than for essential workers. Although, on average, women and men are equally affected, female non-essential workers are more affected than male non-essential workers. Second, partnered individuals with young children are equally affected by the crisis as others, irrespective of gender and spousal employment. Third, singleparent essential workers experience relatively large negative labour supply effects, suggesting emergency childcare was not sufficient for this group. However, overall, labour demand effects appear more important than labour supply effects.
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ItemThe Ups and Downs of the COVID-19 Crisis: A Gender Divide?(Melbourne Institue: Applied Economic & Social Research, 2020-12-01)The first few months of the COVID-19 crisis have seen ups and downs in the labour market, with different trends observed in the various states, and some groups more affected than others. This Research Insight highlights who, where and when people in Australia were most affected, and what the current situation looks like.