School of Earth Sciences - Research Publications

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    Review of tropical cyclones in the Australian region: Climatology, variability, predictability, and trends
    Chand, SS ; Dowdy, AJ ; Ramsay, HA ; Walsh, KJE ; Tory, KJ ; Power, SB ; Bell, SS ; Lavender, SL ; Ye, H ; Kuleshov, Y (WILEY, 2019-01-01)
    Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) can have severe impacts on Australia. These include extreme rainfall and winds, and coastal hazards such as destructive waves, storm surges, estuarine flooding, and coastal erosion. Various aspects of TCs in the Australian region have been documented over the past several decades. In recent years, increasing emphasis has been placed on human‐induced climate change effects on TCs in the Australian region and elsewhere around the globe. However, large natural variability and the lack of consistent long‐term TC observations have often complicated the detection and attribution of TC trends. Efforts have been made to improve TC records for Australia over the past decades, but it is still unclear whether such records are sufficient to provide better understanding of the impacts of natural climate variability and climate change. It is important to note that the damage costs associated with tropical cyclones in Australia have increased in recent decades and will continue to increase due to growing coastal settlement and infrastructure development. Therefore, it is critical that any coastal infrastructure planning and engineering decisions, as well as disaster management decisions, strongly consider future risks from tropical cyclones. A better understanding of tropical cyclones in a changing climate will provide key insights that can help mitigate impacts of tropical cyclones on vulnerable communities. An objective assessment of the Australian TCs at regional scale and its link with climate variability and change using improved and up‐to‐date data records is more imperative now than before. This article is categorized under: Paleoclimates and Current Trends > Modern Climate Change
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    Application of a synthetic cyclone method for assessment of tropical cyclone storm tides in Samoa
    McInnes, KL ; Hoeke, RK ; Walsh, KJE ; O'Grady, JG ; Hubbert, GD (SPRINGER, 2016-01)
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    Mediterranean warm-core cyclones in a warmer world
    Walsh, K ; Giorgi, F ; Coppola, E (SPRINGER, 2014-02)
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    Natural hazards in Australia: sea level and coastal extremes
    McInnes, KL ; White, CJ ; Haigh, ID ; Hemer, MA ; Hoeke, RK ; Holbrook, NJ ; Kiem, AS ; Oliver, ECJ ; Ranasinghe, R ; Walsh, KJE ; Westra, S ; Cox, R (SPRINGER, 2016-11)
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    Sensitivity of the distribution of thunderstorms to sea surface temperatures in four Australian east coast lows
    Chambers, CRS ; Brassington, GB ; Walsh, K ; Simmonds, I (SPRINGER WIEN, 2015-10)
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    Tropical cyclones in a regional climate change projection with RegCM4 over the CORDEX Central America domain
    Diro, GT ; Giorgi, F ; Fuentes-Franco, R ; Walsh, KJE ; Giuliani, G ; Coppola, E (SPRINGER, 2014-07)
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    Basinwise Statistical Analysis of Factors Limiting Tropical Storm Formation From an Initial Tropical Circulation
    Raavi, PH ; Walsh, KJE (AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2020-06-16)
    Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) form within a closed circulation region of large‐scale disturbances under certain dynamical and thermodynamical conditions. This study investigates differences in the large‐scale environmental conditions of a TC 48 hr before the declaration of tropical depression, comparing those that developed into tropical storms (TSs) with those depressions that did not develop. Here, we apply the Okubo‐Weiss Zeta Parameter detection and tracking scheme to ERA‐interim reanalysis from 1989–2018, across different ocean basins. The method detects storm‐system‐scale environmental conditions that favor TC formation. We construct spatial composites of thermodynamical and dynamical quantities for both developing and nondeveloping depressions, as well as storm‐relative streamlines. A statistical index (the Box Difference Index) is used to quantitatively estimate the dominant limiting factors of TS formation from the area‐averaged quantities of large‐scale variables. The relative contribution of large‐scale environmental variables impeding the development of an initial tropical depression to TS differs between ocean basins perhaps due to regional variations in the characteristics of large‐scale disturbances and the surrounding environmental conditions. A streamline analysis shows that the developing storms have a more pronounced cyclonic core and are protected from external influences by a stronger shear sheath layer surrounding the core extending from the lower to middle troposphere. This study, therefore, identifies the potential limiting variables and structural differences in an initial circulation that impede TS formation across different ocean basins.