School of Earth Sciences - Research Publications

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Type: Journal Article × Start date: 2009 × End date: 2009 × Author: KEAY, KEVIN ×

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    New perspectives on the synoptic development of the severe October 1992 Nome storm
    Mesquita, MDS ; Atkinson, DE ; Simmonds, I ; Keay, K ; Gottschalck, J (AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2009-07-14)
    Understanding the characteristics of storms that impact the Alaska region is of importance to emergency planning. The 5–7 October 1992 storm was a severe event which cost Nome, a town in Alaska, $6 million dollars. We will explore its characteristics with the aid of two established cyclone tracking schemes: the NOAA CPC current operational algorithm and the University of Melbourne algorithm. Manual tracking was performed as a control. The essential features are captured by both algorithms, but they differ in the genesis and lysis location. The NOAA algorithm broke the storm into two separate events. Synoptic development of the storm was influenced by a blocking high that affected how the tracking algorithms handled the event. A synoptic re‐examination of this storm is presented in terms of the depth, Laplacian and radius of the system. These new results present a fresh perspective on the intensity and longevity of this dramatic storm.
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    Extraordinary September Arctic sea ice reductions and their relationships with storm behavior over 1979-2008
    SIMMONDS, IAN ; KEAY, KEVIN (American Geophysical Union, 2009)
    Dramatic changes have been observed in Arctic sea ice, cyclone behavior and atmospheric circulation in recent decades. Decreases in September ice extent have been remarkable over the last 30 years, and particularly so in very recent times. The analysis reveals that the trends and variability in September ice coverage and mean cyclone characteristics are related, and that the strength (rather than the number) of cyclones in the Arctic basin is playing a central role in the changes observed in that region, especially in the last few years. The findings reinforce suggestions that the decline in the extent and thickness of Arctic ice has started to render it particularly vulnerable to future anomalous cyclonic activity and atmospheric forcing.