School of Earth Sciences - Research Publications

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    Cross-Spectra Over the Sea from Observations and Mesoscale Modelling
    Vincent, CL ; Larsen, XG ; Larsen, SE ; Sorensen, P (SPRINGER, 2013-02)
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    Characterization of aerosols over the Great Barrier Reef: The influence of transported continental sources
    Chen, Z ; Schofield, R ; Rayner, P ; Zhang, T ; Liu, C ; Vincent, C ; Fiddes, S ; Ryan, RG ; Alroe, J ; Ristovski, ZD ; Humphries, RS ; Keywood, MD ; Ward, J ; Paton-Walsh, C ; Naylor, T ; Shu, X (ELSEVIER, 2019-11-10)
    The rapid environmental changes in Australia prompt a more thorough investigation of the influence of transportation, local emissions, and optical-chemical properties on aerosol production across the region. A month-long intensive measurement campaign was conducted during spring 2016 at Mission Beach, a remote coastal site west of the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) on the north-east coast of Australia. One aerosol pollution episode was investigated in early October. This event was governed by meteorological conditions and characterized by the increase in black carbon (BC) mass concentration (averaged value of 0.35 ± 0.20 μg m-3). Under the influence of the continental transportation, a new layer of nucleation-mode aerosols with an initial size diameter of 20 nm was observed and aerosol number concentrations reached the peak of 6733 cm-3 at a diameter of 29 nm. The averaged aerosol extinction coefficient at the height of 2 km was 150 Mm-1, with a small depolarized ratio (3.5-5%). Simultaneously, the boundary layer height presented a fall-rise trend in the presence of these enhanced aerosol concentrations and became stable in a later stage of the episode. We did not observe clear boundary layer height diurnal variations from the LiDAR observations or from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model outputs, except in an earlier stage of the aerosol episode for the former. Although the sea breeze may have been responsible for these particles, on the balance of available data, we suggest that the aerosol properties at the GBR surface during this period are more likely influenced by regional transportation of continental sources, including biomass-burning aerosols.
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    The Australian Northwest Cloudband: Climatology, Mechanisms, and Association with Precipitation
    Reid, KJ ; Simmonds, I ; Vincent, CL ; King, AD (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2019-10-01)
    Australian northwest cloudbands (NWCBs) are continental-scale bands of continuous cloud that stretch from northwest to southeast Australia. In earlier studies, where the characteristics of NWCBs and their relationship with precipitation were identified from satellite imagery, there was considerable uncertainty in the results due to limited quality and availability of data. The present study identifies NWCBs from 31 years of satellite data using a pattern-matching algorithm. This new climatology is the longest record based entirely on observations. Our findings include a strong annual cycle in NWCB frequency, with a summer maximum and winter minimum, and a statistically significant increase in annual NWCB days over the period 1984–2014. Physical mechanisms responsible for NWCB occurrences are explored to determine whether there is a fundamental difference between summer and winter NWCBs as hypothesized in earlier studies. Composite analyses are used to reveal that a key difference between these is their genesis mechanisms. Whereas summer NWCBs are triggered by cyclonic disturbances, winter NWCBs tend to form when meridional sea surface temperature gradients trigger baroclinic instability. It was also found that while precipitation is enhanced over parts of Australia during a cloudband day, it is reduced in other regions. During a cloudband day, precipitation extremes are more likely over northwest, central, and southeast Australia, while the probability of extreme precipitation decreases in northeast and southwest Australia. Additionally, cold fronts and NWCBs can interact, leading to enhanced rainfall over Australia.
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    Diurnal Cycle of Surface Winds in the Maritime Continent Observed through Satellite Scatterometry
    Short, E ; Vincent, CL ; Lane, TP (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2019-06)
    Abstract The diurnal cycle of surface winds throughout the Maritime Continent plays a significant role in the formation of precipitation over the islands of the region and over the surrounding seas. This study investigates the connection between the diurnal cycles of surface wind and offshore precipitation using data from four satellite scatterometer instruments and two satellite precipitation radar instruments. For the first time, data from three scatterometer instruments are combined to yield a more temporally complete picture of the surface wind diurnal cycles over the Maritime Continent’s surrounding seas. The results indicate that land–sea breezes typically propagate over 400 km offshore, produce mean wind perturbations of between 1 and 5 m s−1, and propagate as gravity waves at 25–30 m s−1. Diurnal precipitation cycles are affected through gravity wave propagation processes associated with the land–sea breezes, and through the convergence of land breezes from nearby islands. These observational results are then compared with previous mesoscale modeling results. It is shown that land–sea breezes occur too early, and are too intense in these modeling results, and this may partly explain why these modeling results also exhibit an early, overly intense diurnal precipitation cycle. This study also investigates variations in the diurnal cycle of surface winds at seasonal and intraseasonal time scales. Previous work has suggested that seasonal and intraseasonal variations in surface heating affect the land–sea breeze circulation and diurnal precipitation cycles; we argue that variations in background winds also play a defining role in modulating coastally influenced local winds.
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    Seasonal dependence of rainfall extremes in and around Jakarta, Indonesia
    Lestari, S ; King, A ; Vincent, C ; Karoly, D ; Protat, A (Elsevier, 2019)
    This study investigates the interannual, seasonal, and intraseasonal variation in rainfall extremes (REs) in Jakarta and surroundings. We used datasets of daily rainfall at three sites at coastal, inland and mountainous environments during 1974–2016 (42 years), Sea Surface Temperature, 850-hPa zonal and meridional winds, and Outgoing Longwave Radiation during 1979–2016 (37 years). The results show that intensity and frequency of REs, and their relative contribution to the total rainfall, have strong relationships with the Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño Southern Oscillation in the dry season (Jun–Nov) but weak relationships in the wet season (Dec–May) at all sites. During active Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) period, the daily average rainfall and the number of RE days relative to all days show strong variation between MJO phases at all sites and the MJO signature differs between the three stations. At the coastal and inland sites, there is a less marked variation of the number of RE events relative to all days with MJO phases. Compared to lower altitudes, the high-altitude station has a greater number of RE events relative to all days in the wet season and a lower intensity of REs relative to total rainfall amount in the dry season. The results of the study suggest that the REs vary in each station due to highly localised differences in responses to large-scale conditions.
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    Using Global and Regional Model Simulations to Understand Maritime Continent Wet-Season Rainfall Variability
    King, AD ; Vincent, CL (American Geophysical Union, 2018)
    The Maritime Continent is a densely populated area of complex topography located between the Pacific and Indian Oceans. It is an area where model skill is particularly important but also difficult to obtain. In this study we examine interannual austral summer rainfall variability in the region and the teleconnection to the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in observation‐based data, reanalyses, and global and regional atmosphere‐only model simulations. We show that model ability to capture interannual rainfall variability is strongly related to model skill in reproducing the ENSO teleconnection to the region, despite strong spatial variability in the ENSO‐rainfall response in coastal areas. Model ability in capturing the spatial pattern of both the midtropospheric moisture and circulation response to ENSO is a strong predictor for model performance in capturing the ENSO‐Maritime Continent rainfall teleconnection. High‐resolution regional simulations and better performing models have opposing ENSO‐rainfall teleconnections between land and sea areas.
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    Mesoscale Variation in Diabatic Heating around Sumatra, and Its Modulation with the Madden-Julian Oscillation
    Vincent, CL ; Lane, TP (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2018-08-01)
    Diabatic heating in the Maritime Continent region is controlled by a unique blend of mesoscale variability associated with steep topography and complex coastlines and intraseasonal variability associated with propagating planetary-scale disturbances. In this study, the diabatic heating from a 10-yr austral summer simulation over the Maritime Continent with a 4-km horizontal grid length is analyzed with respect to diurnal, spatial, and intraseasonal variations. Results are compared, where possible, to analogous estimates from the TRMM precipitation radar. We show that the heating budget is largely a balance between latent heating and vertical advection, with rays of heating and cooling extending upward and outward from the coast evident in the advection terms, consistent with the gravity wave representation of the tropical sea breeze. By classifying rainfall into convective and stratiform components, it is shown that simulated convective heating over Sumatra peaks in MJO phases 2 and 3, while simulated stratiform heating peaks in phase 4. Similarly, spectral latent heating estimates from the TRMM Precipitation Radar show that stratiform heating peaks in phases 3 and 4, while convective heating peaks in phases 2 and 3. It is also shown that stratiform precipitation plays a greater role in offshore precipitation during the night, albeit with embedded convective cores, than over the land during the day. These results emphasize the importance of achieving a realistic representation of convective and stratiform processes in high-resolution simulations in the tropics, both for total rainfall estimates and for realistic latent heating
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    Scatterometer estimates of the tropical sea-breeze circulation near Darwin, with comparison to regional models
    Brown, AL ; Vincent, CL ; Lane, TP ; Short, E ; Nguyen, H (WILEY, 2017-10)
    In tropical coastal environments, simulating the diurnal cycle of wind and precipitation in numerical weather and climate models presents unique challenges due to the interaction of intraseasonal and mesoscale dynamics. This can lead not only to incorrect short‐term weather forecasts but also to unphysical energy and momentum transport by convective processes. In particular, the sea/land‐breeze circulation and its role in initiating convection has been identified as a possible source of errors in the timing and offshore extent of coastal precipitation in the Tropics. In this study, the offshore land/sea breeze around Darwin, Australia, is examined using scatterometer wind observations and two regional atmospheric models. Although the comparison is limited by satellite swath times which cluster around two times of day, useful results are obtained by sub‐sampling the simulated data to match the coverage of the scatterometer data. We find that offshore surface sea‐breeze characteristics (intensity and horizontal spatial extent) from the models and satellite estimates are generally in good agreement, with intensity differences less than 2 m s−1, and offshore extents not varying by more than approximately 150 km. The variation in offshore extent and amplitude of the land/sea‐breeze wind perturbations with monsoon regime is well simulated. Furthermore, despite the simplifying assumptions of linear sea‐breeze theory, the model and scatterometer results are in broad agreement with theoretical values, particularly in the presence of the weak background winds during the monsoon break period.
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    The Impact of Grid and Spectral Nudging on the Variance of the Near-Surface Wind Speed
    Vincent, CL ; Hahmann, AN (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2015-05)
    Abstract Grid and spectral nudging are effective ways of preventing drift from large-scale weather patterns in regional climate models. However, the effect of nudging on the wind speed variance is unclear. In this study, the impact of grid and spectral nudging on near-surface and upper boundary layer wind variance in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model is analyzed. Simulations are run on nested domains with horizontal grid spacing of 15 and 5 km over the Baltic Sea region. For the 15-km domain, 36-h simulations initialized each day are compared with 11-day simulations with either grid or spectral nudging at and above 1150 m above ground level (AGL). Nested 5-km simulations are not nudged directly but inherit boundary conditions from the 15-km experiments. Spatial and temporal spectra show that grid nudging causes smoothing of the wind in the 15-km domain at all wavenumbers, both at 1150 m AGL and near the surface where nudging is not applied directly, while spectral nudging mainly affects longer wavenumbers. Maps of mesoscale variance show spatial smoothing for both grid and spectral nudging, although the effect is less pronounced for spectral nudging. On the inner, 5-km domain, an indirect smoothing impact of nudging is seen up to 200 km inward from the dominant inflow boundary at 1150 m AGL, but there is minimal smoothing from the nudging near the surface, indicating that nudging an outer domain is an appropriate configuration for wind-resource modeling.
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    Evolution of the Diurnal Precipitation Cycle with the Passage of a Madden-Julian Oscillation Event through the Maritime Continent
    Vincent, CL ; Lane, TP (AMER METEOROLOGICAL SOC, 2016-05)
    Changes in the diurnal precipitation cycle as the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) propagates through the Maritime Continent are investigated to explore the processes behind seaward-propagating precipitation northeast of New Guinea. Satellite rainfall estimates from TRMM 3B42 and the Climate Prediction Center morphing technique (CMORPH) are combined with simulations from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model with a horizontal resolution of 4 km. Comparison with 24-h rain gauge measurements indicates that both satellite estimates and the WRF Model exhibit systematic biases. Despite these biases, the changing patterns of offshore precipitation with the passage of the MJO show good consistency between satellite estimates and the WRF Model. In the few days prior to the main MJO envelope, light background wind, relatively clear skies, and an increasingly moist environment promote favorable conditions for the diurnal precipitation cycle. Two distinct processes are identified: 100–200 km from the coast, precipitation moves offshore as a squall line with a propagation speed of 3–5 m s−1. Farther offshore, precipitation propagates with a speed close to 18 m s−1and is associated with an inertia–gravity wave generated by diurnally oscillating heating from radiative and moist convective processes over the land. A gravity wave signature is evident even after the MJO active period when there is little precipitation. By correcting for the background flow perpendicular to the coast, potential temperature anomalies for the lead-up, active, and follow-on MJO periods are shown to collapse to a remarkably invariant shape for a given time of day.