School of Mathematics and Statistics - Research Publications
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ItemOptimal Dosing and Dynamic Distribution of Vaccines in an Influenza Pandemic(OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2009-06-15)Limited production capacity and delays inherent in vaccine development are major hurdles to the widespread use of vaccines to mitigate the effects of a new influenza pandemic. Antigen-sparing vaccines have the most potential to increase population coverage but may be less efficacious. The authors explored this trade-off by applying simple models of influenza transmission and dose response to recent clinical trial data. In this paper, these data are used to illustrate an approach to comparing vaccines on the basis of antigen supply and inferred efficacy. The effects of delays in matched vaccine availability and seroconversion on epidemic size during pandemic phase 6 were also studied. The authors infer from trial data that population benefits stem from the use of low-antigen vaccines. Delayed availability of a matched vaccine could be partially alleviated by using a 1-dose vaccination program with increased coverage and reduced time to full protection. Although less immunogenic, an overall attack rate of up to 6% lower than a 2-dose program could be achieved. However, if prevalence at vaccination is above 1%, effectiveness is much reduced, emphasizing the need for other control measures.
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ItemUnderstanding influenza transmission, immunity and pandemic threats(WILEY, 2009-07)The current pandemic threat can be best understood within an ecological framework that takes account of the history of past pandemics caused by influenza A, the relationships between pandemic and seasonal spread of influenza viruses, and the importance of immunity and behavioural responses in human populations. Isolated populations without recent exposure to seasonal influenza seem more susceptible to new pandemic viruses, and much collateral evidence suggests that this is due to immunity directed against epitopes shared between pandemic and previously circulating strains of inter-pandemic influenza A virus. In the highly connected modern world, most populations are regularly exposed to non-pandemic viruses, which can even boost immunity without causing influenza symptoms. Such naturally-induced immunity helps to explain the low attack-rates of seasonal influenza, as well as the moderate attack-rates in many urbanized populations affected by 1918-1919 and later pandemics. The effectiveness of immunity, even against seasonal influenza, diminishes over time because of antigenic drift in circulating viruses and waning of post-exposure immune responses. Epidemiological evidence suggests that cross-protection against a new pandemic strain could fade even faster. Nevertheless, partial protection, even of short duration, induced by prior seasonal influenza or vaccination against it, could provide important protection in the early stages of a new pandemic.