School of Mathematics and Statistics - Research Publications

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    COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting
    Conway, E ; Walker, CR ; Baker, C ; Lydeamore, MJ ; Ryan, GE ; Campbell, T ; Miller, JC ; Rebuli, N ; Yeung, M ; Kabashima, G ; Geard, N ; Wood, J ; McCaw, JM ; McVernon, J ; Golding, N ; Price, DJ ; Shearer, FM (ROYAL SOC, 2023-08-30)
    Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national 're-opening' plan released in July 2021. Here, we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures-assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 60% to minimize public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.
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    Rapid assessment of the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation: case study and lessons learned
    Shearer, FM ; Walker, J ; Tellioglu, N ; McCaw, JM ; McVernon, J ; Black, A ; Geard, N (ELSEVIER, 2022-03)
    During the early stages of an emerging disease outbreak, governments are required to make critical decisions on how to respond, despite limited data being available to inform these decisions. Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak. Here we describe a rapid risk assessment framework that was developed in February 2020 to support time-critical decisions on the risk of SARS-CoV-2 importation into Australia. We briefly describe the context in which our framework was developed, the framework itself, and provide an example of the type of decision support provided to the Australian government. We then report a critical evaluation of the modelling choices made in February 2020, assessing the impact of our assumptions on estimated rates of importation, and provide a summary of "lessons learned". The framework presented and evaluated here provides a flexible approach to rapid assessment of importation risk, of relevance to current and future pandemic scenarios.
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    COVID-19 in low-tolerance border quarantine systems: Impact of the Delta variant of SARS-CoV-2
    Zachreson, C ; Shearer, FM ; Price, DJ ; Lydeamore, MJ ; McVernon, J ; McCaw, J ; Geard, N (AMER ASSOC ADVANCEMENT SCIENCE, 2022-04)
    In controlling transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), the effectiveness of border quarantine strategies is a key concern for jurisdictions in which the local prevalence of disease and immunity is low. In settings like this such as China, Australia, and New Zealand, rare outbreak events can lead to escalating epidemics and trigger the imposition of large-scale lockdown policies. Here, we develop and apply an individual-based model of COVID-19 to simulate case importation from managed quarantine under various vaccination scenarios. We then use the output of the individual-based model as input to a branching process model to assess community transmission risk. For parameters corresponding to the Delta variant, our results demonstrate that vaccination effectively counteracts the pathogen's increased infectiousness. To prevent outbreaks, heightened vaccination in border quarantine systems must be combined with mass vaccination. The ultimate success of these programs will depend sensitively on the efficacy of vaccines against viral transmission.