School of BioSciences - Research Publications
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ItemEquilibrium Modeling for Environmental Science: Exploring the Nexus of Economic Systems and Environmental Change(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2021-09)Abstract Equilibrium models (EMs) are frequently employed to examine the potential impacts of economic, energy, and trade policies as well as form the foundation of most integrated assessment models. Despite their central role coupling economic and environmental systems, environmental scientists are largely unfamiliar with the structure and methodology underpinning EMs, which serves as a barrier to interdisciplinary collaboration and model improvement. In this study we systematically extract data from 10 years of published EMs with a focus on how these models have been extended beyond their economic origins to encompass environmentally relevant sectors of interest. The results indicate that there is far greater spatial coverage of high income countries compared to low income countries, with notable gaps in Central America, Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. We also find a high degree of aggregation within production inputs and sectoral outputs, particularly within the context of global socioeconomic scenarios. For example, we were unable to identify a single temporally dynamic study that distinguished between products arising from managed versus natural forest, or pastures relative to natural grasslands. Due to the necessary breadth and associated knowledge gaps within a model of the entire global economy, we see considerable potential for cross‐disciplinary innovation as natural scientists gain familiarity into the role these models play in bridging the nexus between socioeconomic systems and environmental change.
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ItemSelecting indicator species for biodiversity management(WILEY, 2018-12)Indicator species are frequently used for biodiversity management but whether indicator species selection is explicit about their ability to improve management decisions remains unclear. We reviewed the scientific literature to assess whether existing methods for selecting indicator species account for the following five monitoring and management “decision factors”: objectives, constraints, actions, uncertainties, and biodiversity outcomes. Of the selected studies, most focused only on improving monitoring efficiency rather than on management effectiveness, potentially leading to ineffective indicators for decision making; only 21% of the studies explicitly accounted for management objectives and actions. Crucially, 94% of the reviewed studies and one‐half of all indicator selection methods overlooked constraints (eg budgets), as well as uncertainties in indicator responses to management. To improve selection of indicator species, we suggest a systematic approach using key concepts from structured decision making. This approach facilitates explicitly evaluating management outcomes as part of the indicator species selection process and allows for the review of indicator choices over time to improve future monitoring and management decisions.
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ItemUsing decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices(WILEY, 2021-04)Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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ItemHow to choose a cost-effective indicator to trigger conservation decisions?(WILEY, 2021-03)Abstract Effective biodiversity conservation requires responding to threats in a timely fashion. This requires understanding the impacts of threats on biodiversity and when management needs to be implemented. However, most ecological systems face multiple threats, so monitoring to assess their impacts on biodiversity is a complex task. Indicators help simplify the challenge of monitoring but choosing the best indicator(s) to inform management is not straightforward. We provide a decision framework that can help identify optimal indicators to trigger management in a system faced with multiple threats. The approach evaluates indicators based on criteria spanning monitoring efficiency, management outcomes and the economic constraints for decision‐making. Critical decision factors (or parameters) are identified and detailed in a six‐step process to estimate the cost‐effectiveness of alternate indicators, including threat impacts, sensitivity of indicators to detect change, and the benefits, costs and feasibility of alternative indicators and management actions. Using the Kimberley as a case study, we evaluate 18 indicators for informing management of three key threats in the region: fire and grazing, feral cat predation, and weeds. We show that indicator selection based on our approach can help improve the expected outcome of management decisions under limited resources. By accounting for multiple factors in estimating benefit and costs of monitoring, our approach improves on common approaches that select indicators based only on whether they are sensitive to change and/or cheap to monitor. We also identify how uncertainty in decision factors influences indicator selection. Although cost‐effectiveness analyses are gaining popularity, ours is the first study to integrate multiple selection criteria using a return on investment framework to compare indicators for monitoring multiple threats and triggering management.
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ItemAssessing biophysical and socio-economic impacts of climate change on regional avian biodiversity(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2021-02-08)Climate change threatens biodiversity directly by influencing biophysical variables that drive species' geographic distributions and indirectly through socio-economic changes that influence land use patterns, driven by global consumption, production and climate. To date, no detailed analyses have been produced that assess the relative importance of, or interaction between, these direct and indirect climate change impacts on biodiversity at large scales. Here, we apply a new integrated modelling framework to quantify the relative influence of biophysical and socio-economically mediated impacts on avian species in Vietnam and Australia and we find that socio-economically mediated impacts on suitable ranges are largely outweighed by biophysical impacts. However, by translating economic futures and shocks into spatially explicit predictions of biodiversity change, we now have the power to analyse in a consistent way outcomes for nature and people of any change to policy, regulation, trading conditions or consumption trend at any scale from sub-national to global.
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ItemConservation leadership must account for cultural differences(ELSEVIER GMBH, URBAN & FISCHER VERLAG, 2018-06)