School of BioSciences - Research Publications

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Author: Elith, Rosemary × Author: Guillera-Arroita, Gurutzeta × Author: Lahoz-Monfort, Jose × Author: Tingley, Reid × End date: 2019 × Start date: 2011 ×

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    Is my species distribution model fit for purpose? Matching data and models to applications
    Guillera-Arroita, G ; Lahoz-Monfort, JJ ; Elith, J ; Gordon, A ; Kujala, H ; Lentini, PE ; McCarthy, MA ; Tingley, R ; Wintle, BA (WILEY, 2015-03)
    Abstract Species distribution models (SDMs) are used to inform a range of ecological, biogeographical and conservation applications. However, users often underestimate the strong links between data type, model output and suitability for end‐use. We synthesize current knowledge and provide a simple framework that summarizes how interactions between data type and the sampling process (i.e. imperfect detection and sampling bias) determine the quantity that is estimated by aSDM. We then draw upon the published literature and simulations to illustrate and evaluate the information needs of the most common ecological, biogeographical and conservation applications ofSDMoutputs. We find that, while predictions of models fitted to the most commonly available observational data (presence records) suffice for some applications, others require estimates of occurrence probabilities, which are unattainable without reliable absence records. Our literature review and simulations reveal that, while converting continuousSDMoutputs into categories of assumed presence or absence is common practice, it is seldom clearly justified by the application's objective and it usually degrades inference. MatchingSDMs to the needs of particular applications is critical to avoid poor scientific inference and management outcomes. This paper aims to help modellers and users assess whether their intendedSDMoutputs are indeed fit for purpose.