School of BioSciences - Research Publications
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ItemEstablishment of Wolbachia Strain wAlbB in Malaysian Populations of Aedes aegypti for Dengue Control(CELL PRESS, 2019-12-16)Dengue has enormous health impacts globally. A novel approach to decrease dengue incidence involves the introduction of Wolbachia endosymbionts that block dengue virus transmission into populations of the primary vector mosquito, Aedes aegypti. The wMel Wolbachia strain has previously been trialed in open releases of Ae. aegypti; however, the wAlbB strain has been shown to maintain higher density than wMel at high larval rearing temperatures. Releases of Ae. aegypti mosquitoes carrying wAlbB were carried out in 6 diverse sites in greater Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, with high endemic dengue transmission. The strain was successfully established and maintained at very high population frequency at some sites or persisted with additional releases following fluctuations at other sites. Based on passive case monitoring, reduced human dengue incidence was observed in the release sites when compared to control sites. The wAlbB strain of Wolbachia provides a promising option as a tool for dengue control, particularly in very hot climates.
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ItemData Integration for Large-Scale Models of Species Distributions(ELSEVIER SCIENCE LONDON, 2020-01)With the expansion in the quantity and types of biodiversity data being collected, there is a need to find ways to combine these different sources to provide cohesive summaries of species' potential and realized distributions in space and time. Recently, model-based data integration has emerged as a means to achieve this by combining datasets in ways that retain the strengths of each. We describe a flexible approach to data integration using point process models, which provide a convenient way to translate across ecological currencies. We highlight recent examples of large-scale ecological models based on data integration and outline the conceptual and technical challenges and opportunities that arise.
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Itemsteps: Software for spatially and temporally explicit population simulations(WILEY, 2020-04)Abstract Species population dynamics are driven by spatial and temporal changes in the environment, anthropogenic activities and conservation management actions. Understanding how populations will change in response to these drivers is fundamental to a wide range of ecological applications, but there are few open‐source software options accessible to researchers and managers that allow them to predict these changes in a flexible and transparent way. We introduce an open‐source, multi‐platform r package, steps, that models spatial changes in species populations as a function of drivers of distribution and abundance, such as climate, disturbance, landscape dynamics and species ecological and physiological requirements. To illustrate the functionality of steps, we model the population dynamics of the greater glider Petauroides volans, an arboreal Australian mammal. We demonstrate how steps can be used to simulate population responses of the glider to forest dynamics and management with the types of data commonly used in ecological analyses. steps expands on the features found in existing software packages, can easily incorporate a range of spatial layers (e.g. habitat suitability, vegetation dynamics and disturbances), facilitates integrated and transparent analyses within a single platform and produces interpretable outputs of changes in species' populations through space and time. Further, steps offers both ready‐to‐use, built‐in functionality, as well as the ability for advanced users to define their own modules for custom analyses. Thus, we anticipate that steps will be of significant value to environment and wildlife managers and researchers from a broad range of disciplines.
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ItemReconstructing the early global dynamics of under-ascertained COVID-19 cases and infections( 2020)
Background
Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures. Estimating case ascertainment over time allows for accurate estimates of specific outcomes such as seroprevalence, which is essential for planning control measures.Methods
Using reported data on COVID-19 cases and fatalities globally, we estimated the proportion of symptomatic cases (i.e. any person with any of fever >= 37.5°C, cough, shortness of breath, sudden onset of anosmia, ageusia or dysgeusia illness) that were reported in 210 countries and territories, given those countries had experienced more than ten deaths. We used published estimates of the baseline case fatality ratio (CFR), which was adjusted for delays and under-ascertainment, then calculated the ratio of this baseline CFR to an estimated local delay-adjusted CFR to estimate the level of under-ascertainment in a particular location. We then fit a Bayesian Gaussian process model to estimate the temporal pattern of under-ascertainment.Results
Based on reported cases and deaths, we estimated that, during March 2020, the median percentage of symptomatic cases detected across the 84 countries which experienced more than ten deaths ranged from 2.4% (Bangladesh) to 100% (Chile). Across the ten countries with the highest number of total confirmed cases as of 6th July 2020, we estimated that the peak number of symptomatic cases ranged from 1.4 times (Chile) to 18 times (France) larger than reported. Comparing our model with national and regional seroprevalence data where available, we find that our estimates are consistent with observed values. Finally, we estimated seroprevalence for each country. As of the 7th June, our seroprevalence estimates range from 0% (many countries) to 13% (95% CrI: 5.6% – 24%) (Belgium).Conclusions
We found substantial under-ascertainment of symptomatic cases, particularly at the peak of the first wave of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, in many countries. Reported case counts will therefore likely underestimate the rate of outbreak growth initially and underestimate the decline in the later stages of an epidemic. Although there was considerable under-reporting in many locations, our estimates were consistent with emerging serological data, suggesting that the proportion of each country’s population infected with SARS-CoV-2 worldwide is generally low.Funding
Wellcome Trust, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, DFID, NIHR, GCRF, ARC. -
ItemFactors influencing the residency of bettongs using one-way gates to exit a fenced reserve(Wiley, 2020-11)Understanding the conditions under which small native Australian mammals can persist in the presence of introduced predators remains a key challenge to conservation ecologists. Bettong‐specific one‐way gates were used at a predator‐free reserve in South Australia to allow the burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur) – a small potoroid, listed as ‘vulnerable’ nationally – to disperse out of the reserve. We conducted a field experiment to explore the conditions affecting residence time of bettongs that left the reserve. We monitored bettong and mammalian predator activity outside the fence using track surveys across 18 sites over two seasons. We examined the effect of supplementary feeding as a strategy for increasing residence time, as well as the influence of predator presence and habitat quality, using linear mixed models. Bettong activity was positively associated with supplementary feeding, midstorey vegetation cover and shelter availability. After gates were closed, bettong activity near gates declined to almost zero the following weeks, likely either due to death from predation or due to movement away from the sites. To a small extent, mammalian predators were more likely to be present at sites with high bettong activity. Further research on conditions to support persistence of burrowing bettongs and other small mammals, including understanding minimum necessary predator control effort, is required before successful establishment of populations outside of fences can occur.
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ItemPast and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)(NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2019-05)This Article was mistakenly not made Open Access when originally published; this has now been amended, and information about the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License has been added into the 'Additional information' section.
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ItemPast and future spread of the arbovirus vectors Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus (vol 4, pg 854, 2019)(NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2019-05)In the version of this Article originally published, the affiliation for author Catherine Linard was incorrectly stated as '6Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK'. The correct affiliation is '9Spatial Epidemiology Lab (SpELL), Universite Libre de Bruxelles, Brussels, Belgium'. The affiliation for author Hongjie Yu was also incorrectly stated as '11Department of Statistics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA'. The correct affiliation is '15School of Health, Fudan University, Key Laboratory of Public Health Safety, Ministry of Education, Shanghai, China'. This has now been amended in all versions of the Article.
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ItemMeasurement of the Infection and Dissemination of Bluetongue Virus in Culicoides Biting Midges Using a Semi-Quantitative RT-PCR Assay and Isolation of Infectious Virus(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2013-08-05)BACKGROUND: Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) are the biological vectors of globally significant arboviruses of livestock including bluetongue virus (BTV), African horse sickness virus (AHSV) and the recently emerging Schmallenberg virus (SBV). From 2006-2009 outbreaks of BTV in northern Europe inflicted major disruption and economic losses to farmers and several attempts were made to implicate Palaearctic Culicoides species as vectors. Results from these studies were difficult to interpret as they used semi-quantitative RT-PCR (sqPCR) assays as the major diagnostic tool, a technique that had not been validated for use in this role. In this study we validate the use of these assays by carrying out time-series detection of BTV RNA in two colony species of Culicoides and compare the results with the more traditional isolation of infectious BTV on cell culture. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: A BTV serotype 1 strain mixed with horse blood was fed to several hundred individuals of Culicoides sonorensis (Wirth & Jones) and C. nubeculosus (Mg.) using a membrane-based assay and replete individuals were then incubated at 25°C. At daily intervals 25 Culicoides of each species were removed from incubation, homogenised and BTV quantified in each individual using sqPCR (Cq values) and virus isolation on a KC-C. sonorensis embryonic cell line, followed by antigen enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). In addition, comparisons were also drawn between the results obtained with whole C. sonorensis and with individually dissected individuals to determine the level of BTV dissemination. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Cq values generated from time-series infection experiments in both C. sonorensis and C. nubeculosus confirmed previous studies that relied upon the isolation and detection of infectious BTV. Implications on the testing of field-collected Culicoides as potential virus vectors by PCR assays and the use of such assays as front-line tools for use in diagnostic laboratories in this role are discussed.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableDefining the Geographical Range of the Plasmodium knowlesi Reservoir(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2014-03)BACKGROUND: The simian malaria parasite, Plasmodium knowlesi, can cause severe and fatal disease in humans yet it is rarely included in routine public health reporting systems for malaria and its geographical range is largely unknown. Because malaria caused by P. knowlesi is a truly neglected tropical disease, there are substantial obstacles to defining the geographical extent and risk of this disease. Information is required on the occurrence of human cases in different locations, on which non-human primates host this parasite and on which vectors are able to transmit it to humans. We undertook a systematic review and ranked the existing evidence, at a subnational spatial scale, to investigate the potential geographical range of the parasite reservoir capable of infecting humans. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: After reviewing the published literature we identified potential host and vector species and ranked these based on how informative they are for the presence of an infectious parasite reservoir, based on current evidence. We collated spatial data on parasite occurrence and the ranges of the identified host and vector species. The ranked spatial data allowed us to assign an evidence score to 475 subnational areas in 19 countries and we present the results on a map of the Southeast and South Asia region. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: We have ranked subnational areas within the potential disease range according to evidence for presence of a disease risk to humans, providing geographical evidence to support decisions on prevention, management and prophylaxis. This work also highlights the unknown risk status of large parts of the region. Within this unknown category, our map identifies which areas have most evidence for the potential to support an infectious reservoir and are therefore a priority for further investigation. Furthermore we identify geographical areas where further investigation of putative host and vector species would be highly informative for the region-wide assessment.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableGlobal Distribution Maps of the Leishmaniases(eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD, 2014-06-27)The leishmaniases are vector-borne diseases that have a broad global distribution throughout much of the Americas, Africa, and Asia. Despite representing a significant public health burden, our understanding of the global distribution of the leishmaniases remains vague, reliant upon expert opinion and limited to poor spatial resolution. A global assessment of the consensus of evidence for leishmaniasis was performed at a sub-national level by aggregating information from a variety of sources. A database of records of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis occurrence was compiled from published literature, online reports, strain archives, and GenBank accessions. These, with a suite of biologically relevant environmental covariates, were used in a boosted regression tree modelling framework to generate global environmental risk maps for the leishmaniases. These high-resolution evidence-based maps can help direct future surveillance activities, identify areas to target for disease control and inform future burden estimation efforts.