School of BioSciences - Research Publications

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    Integrating species metrics into biodiversity offsetting calculations to improve long-term persistence
    Marshall, E ; Visintin, C ; Valavi, R ; Wilkinson, DP ; Southwell, D ; Wintle, BA ; Kujala, H (WILEY, 2022-04)
    Abstract Several methods of measuring biodiversity in development‐offset trades exist. However, there is little consensus on which biodiversity metrics should be used for quantifying development impacts and assigning offsets. We simulated development impacts in a virtual landscape and offset these impacts using six biodiversity metrics: vegetation area, vegetation condition, habitat suitability, species abundance, metapopulation connectivity and rarity‐weighted richness. We tested long‐term impacts of metric choice during offsetting by combining simulated landscapes with population viability analyses. No net loss or net gains in habitat were achieved using all metrics except vegetation area and condition. Limited habitat and like‐for‐like requirements resulted in offsets exhausting available habitat in each vegetation class before offset requirements were met when using vegetation‐based metrics. We also found that impact avoidance was an important driver in how much compensation offsets could deliver. When impacts avoided high‐suitability habitats, all six metrics achieved no net loss or net gains for most species. However, when core habitats were developed, none of the metrics were able to consistently prevent population declines. Synthesis and application. When impacts on high‐quality habitat were avoided, and assuming the protection and restoration benefits can occur in practice, vegetation‐based metrics may produce offsets which deliver gains in species abundance equivalent to species‐specific metrics. However, species‐specific metrics outperformed vegetation‐based metrics when core habitats were lost. Applying avoidance measures as a first step to minimise biodiversity impacts during development will significantly improve offset outcomes for species and result in greater long‐term population benefits delivered through offsetting.
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    Too hot to hunt: Mechanistic predictions of thermal refuge from cat predation risk
    Briscoe, NJ ; McGregor, H ; Roshier, D ; Carter, A ; Wintle, BA ; Kearney, MR (WILEY, 2022-09)
    Abstract Many threatened species depend on climatic microrefugia, but places with harsh climates for predators may also play a refugial role. Feral cats threaten many native species in arid Australia. Although cats can persist in regions with no free water, their abundance should depend on the availability of microclimates that protect them from harsh environmental conditions. We developed a biophysical model of feral cat heat stress and used it to explore how behavior and microhabitat features influence water requirements and activity. Tests of model predictions against fine‐scale GPS and microclimate data highlight the importance of refuges, particularly rabbit burrows. Continent‐wide simulations show large but temporally varying areas of the arid zone that would be lethal for cats without access to deep or shaded burrows. Our approach can identify locations that may act as natural refuges for native prey, and where habitat management strategies may be effective in controlling cat abundance.
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    Credible biodiversity offsetting needs public national registers to confirm no net loss
    Kujala, H ; Maron, M ; Kennedy, CM ; Evans, MC ; Bull, JW ; Wintle, BA ; Iftekhar, SM ; Selwood, KE ; Beissner, K ; Osborn, D ; Gordon, A (CELL PRESS, 2022-06-17)
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    Getting our Act together to improve Indigenous leadership and recognition in biodiversity management
    Goolmeer, T ; Skroblin, A ; Wintle, BA (WILEY, 2022-01)
    Summary Increasingly scientists and policy makers are acknowledging the importance of Indigenous participation in effective biodiversity conservation. In Australia, the recognised Indigenous estate is vast, accounting for up to 57% of the continent and comprising some of the highest priority conservation lands, including 46% of the formal National Reserve System. The Environment Protection and Biodiversity Conservation Act 1999 (the Act) is Commonwealth legislation designed to protect and manage nationally and internationally important species and ecological communities, which entails specific objectives to recognise Indigenous people. However, to date the involvement of Indigenous people in implementation of the Act has been inconsistent and inadequate, particularly in the protection of the Indigenous estate, understanding and supporting Indigenous people’s aspirations for Country and culturally significant species, and respecting the traditional management of species and landscapes. In this article, we will explore the key barriers and opportunities for improving Indigenous participation in biodiversity conservation under the Act. We structure our exploration using the three connected themes: (1) meaningful Indigenous engagement and participation, (2) recognition of the Indigenous Estate and (3) strengthening Indigenous‐led governance. We find that there is a pressing need and an immediate opportunity to reform and strengthen the Act to protect Indigenous Knowledge, to recognise and report on the role of Indigenous Estate, and to realise the aspirations of Indigenous peoples for improved land and sea management that strengthens people, culture and Country.
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    Developing a two-way learning monitoring program for Mankarr (Greater Bilby) in the Western Desert, Western Australia
    Skroblin, A ; Carboon, T ; Bidu, G ; Taylor, M ; Bidu, N ; Taylor, W ; Taylor, K ; Miller, M ; Robinson, L ; Williams, C ; Chapman, N ; Marney, M ; Marney, C ; Biljabu, J ; Biljabu, L ; Jeffries, P ; Samson, H ; Charles, P ; Game, ET ; Wintle, B (WILEY, 2022-01)
    Summary Indigenous people are the custodians of knowledge systems that hold detailed awareness of the environment, including applications for monitoring and management to improve biodiversity and cultural outcomes. Indigenous communities are increasingly participating in programs to monitor populations of wildlife. There is a need for frameworks to guide how Indigenous priorities, aspirations and culture can be respected within monitoring programs, as well as case studies that demonstrate how Indigenous knowledge and practice can provide opportunities together with Western science practice to improve the rigour and outcomes of wildlife monitoring. Here, we describe the process of developing a monitoring program that was tailored to be carried out by Kanyirninpa Jukurrpa Indigenous ranger teams to assess the status, trend and response to the management of a threatened and culturally significant species Mankarr (Greater Bilby; Macrotis lagotis). We applied a collaborative two‐way approach, using iterative consultations, elicitations and field trials involving Indigenous and non‐Indigenous project partners to define monitoring objectives, record biocultural knowledge and tailor a sampling methodology to fit the requirements of Martu Traditional Owners. Our project focused on creating a method that would be engaging, accessible and useful for rangers who would carry out the program, and prioritized collection of relevant data for community decision‐making regarding management. We outline our key learnings for co‐design of wildlife monitoring programs on Indigenous lands. Our approach provides insights that will assist in designing other cross‐cultural or participatory monitoring programs.
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    steps: Software for spatially and temporally explicit population simulations
    Visintin, C ; Briscoe, NJ ; Woolley, SNC ; Lentini, PE ; Tingley, R ; Wintle, BA ; Golding, N ; Graham, L (WILEY, 2020-04)
    Abstract Species population dynamics are driven by spatial and temporal changes in the environment, anthropogenic activities and conservation management actions. Understanding how populations will change in response to these drivers is fundamental to a wide range of ecological applications, but there are few open‐source software options accessible to researchers and managers that allow them to predict these changes in a flexible and transparent way. We introduce an open‐source, multi‐platform r package, steps, that models spatial changes in species populations as a function of drivers of distribution and abundance, such as climate, disturbance, landscape dynamics and species ecological and physiological requirements. To illustrate the functionality of steps, we model the population dynamics of the greater glider Petauroides volans, an arboreal Australian mammal. We demonstrate how steps can be used to simulate population responses of the glider to forest dynamics and management with the types of data commonly used in ecological analyses. steps expands on the features found in existing software packages, can easily incorporate a range of spatial layers (e.g. habitat suitability, vegetation dynamics and disturbances), facilitates integrated and transparent analyses within a single platform and produces interpretable outputs of changes in species' populations through space and time. Further, steps offers both ready‐to‐use, built‐in functionality, as well as the ability for advanced users to define their own modules for custom analyses. Thus, we anticipate that steps will be of significant value to environment and wildlife managers and researchers from a broad range of disciplines.
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    Equilibrium Modeling for Environmental Science: Exploring the Nexus of Economic Systems and Environmental Change
    Cantele, M ; Bal, P ; Kompas, T ; Hadjikakou, M ; Wintle, B (AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2021-09)
    Abstract Equilibrium models (EMs) are frequently employed to examine the potential impacts of economic, energy, and trade policies as well as form the foundation of most integrated assessment models. Despite their central role coupling economic and environmental systems, environmental scientists are largely unfamiliar with the structure and methodology underpinning EMs, which serves as a barrier to interdisciplinary collaboration and model improvement. In this study we systematically extract data from 10 years of published EMs with a focus on how these models have been extended beyond their economic origins to encompass environmentally relevant sectors of interest. The results indicate that there is far greater spatial coverage of high income countries compared to low income countries, with notable gaps in Central America, Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia. We also find a high degree of aggregation within production inputs and sectoral outputs, particularly within the context of global socioeconomic scenarios. For example, we were unable to identify a single temporally dynamic study that distinguished between products arising from managed versus natural forest, or pastures relative to natural grasslands. Due to the necessary breadth and associated knowledge gaps within a model of the entire global economy, we see considerable potential for cross‐disciplinary innovation as natural scientists gain familiarity into the role these models play in bridging the nexus between socioeconomic systems and environmental change.
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    Quantifying the impact of vegetation-based metrics on species persistence when choosing offsets for habitat destruction
    Marshall, E ; Valavi, R ; Connor, LO ; Cadenhead, N ; Southwell, D ; Wintle, BA ; Kujala, H (WILEY, 2021-04)
    Developers are often required by law to offset environmental impacts through targeted conservation actions. Most offset policies specify metrics for calculating offset requirements, usually by assessing vegetation condition. Despite widespread use, there is little evidence to support the effectiveness of vegetation-based metrics for ensuring biodiversity persistence. We compared long-term impacts of biodiversity offsetting based on area only; vegetation condition only; area × habitat suitability; and condition × habitat suitability in development and restoration simulations for the Hunter Region of New South Wales, Australia. We simulated development and subsequent offsetting through restoration within a virtual landscape, linking simulations to population viability models for 3 species. Habitat gains did not ensure species persistence. No net loss was achieved when performance of offsetting was assessed in terms of amount of habitat restored, but not when outcomes were assessed in terms of persistence. Maintenance of persistence occurred more often when impacts were avoided, giving further support to better enforce the avoidance stage of the mitigation hierarchy. When development affected areas of high habitat quality for species, persistence could not be guaranteed. Therefore, species must be more explicitly accounted for in offsets, rather than just vegetation or habitat alone. Declines due to a failure to account directly for species population dynamics and connectivity overshadowed the benefits delivered by producing large areas of high-quality habitat. Our modeling framework showed that the benefits delivered by offsets are species specific and that simple vegetation-based metrics can give misguided impressions on how well biodiversity offsets achieve no net loss.
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    Using decision science to evaluate global biodiversity indices
    Watermeyer, KE ; Bal, P ; Burgass, MJ ; Bland, LM ; Collen, B ; Hallam, C ; Kelly, LT ; McCarthy, MA ; Regan, TJ ; Stevenson, S ; Wintle, BA ; Nicholson, E ; Guillera-Arroita, G (WILEY, 2021-04)
    Global biodiversity indices are used to measure environmental change and progress toward conservation goals, yet few indices have been evaluated comprehensively for their capacity to detect trends of interest, such as declines in threatened species or ecosystem function. Using a structured approach based on decision science, we qualitatively evaluated 9 indices commonly used to track biodiversity at global and regional scales against 5 criteria relating to objectives, design, behavior, incorporation of uncertainty, and constraints (e.g., costs and data availability). Evaluation was based on reference literature for indices available at the time of assessment. We identified 4 key gaps in indices assessed: pathways to achieving goals (means objectives) were not always clear or relevant to desired outcomes (fundamental objectives); index testing and understanding of expected behavior was often lacking; uncertainty was seldom acknowledged or accounted for; and costs of implementation were seldom considered. These gaps may render indices inadequate in certain decision-making contexts and are problematic for indices linked with biodiversity targets and sustainability goals. Ensuring that index objectives are clear and their design is underpinned by a model of relevant processes are crucial in addressing the gaps identified by our assessment. Uptake and productive use of indices will be improved if index performance is tested rigorously and assumptions and uncertainties are clearly communicated to end users. This will increase index accuracy and value in tracking biodiversity change and supporting national and global policy decisions, such as the post-2020 global biodiversity framework of the Convention on Biological Diversity.
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    Factors influencing the residency of bettongs using one-way gates to exit a fenced reserve
    Moyses, J ; Hradsky, B ; Tuft, K ; Moseby, K ; Golding, N ; Wintle, B (Wiley, 2020-11)
    Understanding the conditions under which small native Australian mammals can persist in the presence of introduced predators remains a key challenge to conservation ecologists. Bettong‐specific one‐way gates were used at a predator‐free reserve in South Australia to allow the burrowing bettong (Bettongia lesueur) – a small potoroid, listed as ‘vulnerable’ nationally – to disperse out of the reserve. We conducted a field experiment to explore the conditions affecting residence time of bettongs that left the reserve. We monitored bettong and mammalian predator activity outside the fence using track surveys across 18 sites over two seasons. We examined the effect of supplementary feeding as a strategy for increasing residence time, as well as the influence of predator presence and habitat quality, using linear mixed models. Bettong activity was positively associated with supplementary feeding, midstorey vegetation cover and shelter availability. After gates were closed, bettong activity near gates declined to almost zero the following weeks, likely either due to death from predation or due to movement away from the sites. To a small extent, mammalian predators were more likely to be present at sites with high bettong activity. Further research on conditions to support persistence of burrowing bettongs and other small mammals, including understanding minimum necessary predator control effort, is required before successful establishment of populations outside of fences can occur.