School of BioSciences - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 10 of 10
-
ItemSpecies origin affects the rate of response to inter-annual growing season precipitation and nutrient addition in four Australian native grasslands(WILEY, 2016-11-01)QUESTIONS: Predicted increases in temperature and changes to precipitation are expected to alter the amount of plant available nutrients, in turn, altering rates of primary production and exotic plant invasions. However, it remains unclear whether increased responses occur in wetter than average years, even in low fertility and low rainfall regions. LOCATION: Four Australian grasslands, including sites in arid Western Australia, semi‐arid Victoria, alpine Victoria and sub‐tropical Queensland. METHODS: Using identical nutrient addition experiments, we use 6‐years of biomass, cover and species richness data to examine how rates of biomass production and native and exotic cover and richness are affected by growing season precipitation [proportion of yearly growing season precipitation (GSP) to long‐term mean GSP] and nutrient (N, P, K and micronutrients) addition. RESULTS: Rates of grassland productivity strongly increased with increasing GSP. GSP increased rates of native cover but not native or exotic richness, nor rates of exotic cover change. We detected no significant NPK effect on rates of grassland productivity, exotic cover or exotic richness change. In contrast, NPK addition decreased rates of native cover change and fertilized plots had significantly fewer native species. We did not detect a significant interaction between NPK and GSP. CONCLUSIONS: Grassland productivity was more strongly predicted by variation in growing season precipitation than by nutrient addition, suggesting it will vary with future changes in rainfall. Response to nutrients, however, depend on species origin, suggesting that increasing soil nutrient availability due to anthropogenic activities is likely to lead to negative effects on native species richness and cover.
-
ItemForecasting species range dynamics with process-explicit models: matching methods to applications(WILEY, 2019-11)Knowing where species occur is fundamental to many ecological and environmental applications. Species distribution models (SDMs) are typically based on correlations between species occurrence data and environmental predictors, with ecological processes captured only implicitly. However, there is a growing interest in approaches that explicitly model processes such as physiology, dispersal, demography and biotic interactions. These models are believed to offer more robust predictions, particularly when extrapolating to novel conditions. Many process-explicit approaches are now available, but it is not clear how we can best draw on this expanded modelling toolbox to address ecological problems and inform management decisions. Here, we review a range of process-explicit models to determine their strengths and limitations, as well as their current use. Focusing on four common applications of SDMs - regulatory planning, extinction risk, climate refugia and invasive species - we then explore which models best meet management needs. We identify barriers to more widespread and effective use of process-explicit models and outline how these might be overcome. As well as technical and data challenges, there is a pressing need for more thorough evaluation of model predictions to guide investment in method development and ensure the promise of these new approaches is fully realised.
-
ItemClimate change: Alpine shrubs as ecosystem engineers(WILEY, 2019-08-01)
-
ItemImpacts of recent climate change on terrestrial flora and fauna: Some emerging Australian examples(WILEY, 2019-02-01)The effects of anthropogenic climate change on biodiversity are well known for some high‐profile Australian marine systems, including coral bleaching and kelp forest devastation. Less well‐published are the impacts of climate change being observed in terrestrial ecosystems, although ecological models have predicted substantial changes are likely. Detecting and attributing terrestrial changes to anthropogenic factors is difficult due to the ecological importance of extreme conditions, the noisy nature of short‐term data collected with limited resources, and complexities introduced by biotic interactions. Here, we provide a suite of case studies that have considered possible impacts of anthropogenic climate change on Australian terrestrial systems. Our intention is to provide a diverse collection of stories illustrating how Australian flora and fauna are likely responding to direct and indirect effects of anthropogenic climate change. We aim to raise awareness rather than be comprehensive. We include case studies covering canopy dieback in forests, compositional shifts in vegetation, positive feedbacks between climate, vegetation and disturbance regimes, local extinctions in plants, size changes in birds, phenological shifts in reproduction and shifting biotic interactions that threaten communities and endangered species. Some of these changes are direct and clear cut, others are indirect and less clearly connected to climate change; however, all are important in providing insights into the future state of terrestrial ecosystems. We also highlight some of the management issues relevant to conserving terrestrial communities and ecosystems in the face of anthropogenic climate change.
-
ItemEffects of drought and fire on resprouting capacity of 52 temperate Australian perennial native grasses(WILEY, 2019-02)It remains uncertain how perennial grasses with different photosynthetic pathways respond to fire, and how this response varies with stress at the time of burning. Resprouting after fire was examined in relation to experimentally manipulated pre-fire watering frequencies. We asked the following questions: are there response differences to fire between C3 and C4 grasses? And, how does post-fire resprouting vary with pre-fire drought stress? Fifty-two perennial Australian grasses (37 genera, 13 tribes) were studied. Three watering frequencies were applied to simulate increasing drought. Pre-fire tiller number, tiller density, specific leaf area and leaf dry matter content were measured as explanatory variables to assess response. Most species (90%) and individuals (79%) resprouted following experimental burning. C4 grasses had higher probabilities of surviving fire relative to C3 grasses. Responses were not related to phylogeny or tribe. High leaf dry matter content reduced the probability of dying, but also reduced the re-emergence of tillers. Post-fire tiller number increased with increasing drought, regardless of photosynthetic type, suggesting that drought plays a role in the ability of grasses to recover after fire. This has implications for understanding the persistence of species in landscapes where fire management is practiced.
-
ItemCorrelation of drought traits and the predictability of osmotic potential at full leaf turgor in vegetation from New Zealand(WILEY, 2018-06-01)Abstract Scientists do not know precisely how severe will be the impact of climate change on species. Evidence suggests that for some species, their future distributions might be jeopardized by local extinctions and drought‐induced tree mortality. Thus, we require models capable of estimating drought tolerance across many species. We can approach this goal by assessing functional traits. The trait osmotic potential at full turgor, πO, is potentially a good drought indicator; however, few studies address its importance as a drought‐tolerance predictor and it is difficult to measure in the field with accuracy. In this work, we aim to answer the questions: which drought traits correlate with πO?; do morpho‐anatomical traits correlate with πO?; and which trees and shrubs are more (or less) vulnerable to drought? To achieve this aim, we assessed physiological and morpho‐anatomical traits for 14 native species from New Zealand forests. We included leaf‐ and wood‐related traits, πO, water potential and stomatal conductance. We examined how these traits correlate with πO and sought to generate models to predict πO as a function of other traits. We tested 33 different models and evaluated them using Akaike's information criterion. Unfortunately, none of the morpho‐anatomical traits correlated well with πO. Instead, water potential correlated most strongly with πO. None of the models using only morpho‐anatomical traits produced plausible results. The model with the best predictive performance incorporated the effects of both morpho‐anatomical and physiological traits: water potential and wood saturated water content. Of the species analysed, and based on their πO response, Lophozonia menziesii was considered the most vulnerable to drought stress, whereas Plagianthus regius was the least vulnerable. Our findings imply that it is potentially valuable to keep exploring the use of πO as a drought indicator and that the effort required to measure some physiological traits, such as water potential, may be essential to consider plant drought responses and to predict πO.
-
ItemHealth and Economic Costs of Early, Delayed and No Suppression of COVID-19: The Case of Australia(Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, 2020)We compare the health and economic costs of early (actual), delayed and no suppression of COVID-19 infections in 2020 in Australia. Using a fit-for-purpose compartment model that we fitted from recorded data, a value of a statistical life year (VSLY) and an age-adjusted value of statistical life (A-VSL), we find: (1) the economic costs of no suppression are multiples more than for early suppression; (2) VSLY welfare losses of fatalities equivalent to GDP losses mean that for early suppression to not to be the preferred strategy requires that Australians prefer more than 12,500–30,000 deaths to the economy costs of early suppression, depending on the fatality rate; and (3) early rather than delayed suppression imposes much lower economy and health costs. We conclude that in high-income countries, like Australia, a ‘go early, go hard’ strategy to suppress COVID-19 results in the lowest estimated public health and economy costs.
-
ItemClimatic warming strengthens a positive feedback between alpine shrubs and fire(WILEY, 2017-08)Climate change is expected to increase fire activity and woody plant encroachment in arctic and alpine landscapes. However, the extent to which these increases interact to affect the structure, function and composition of alpine ecosystems is largely unknown. Here we use field surveys and experimental manipulations to examine how warming and fire affect recruitment, seedling growth and seedling survival in four dominant Australian alpine shrubs. We found that fire increased establishment of shrub seedlings by as much as 33-fold. Experimental warming also doubled growth rates of tall shrub seedlings and could potentially increase their survival. By contrast, warming had no effect on shrub recruitment, postfire tussock regeneration, or how tussock grass affected shrub seedling growth and survival. These findings indicate that warming, coupled with more frequent or severe fires, will likely result in an increase in the cover and abundance of evergreen shrubs. Given that shrubs are one of the most flammable components in alpine and tundra environments, warming is likely to strengthen an existing feedback between woody species abundance and fire in these ecosystems.
-
ItemModeling rates of life form cover change in burned and unburned alpine heathland subject to experimental warming(SPRINGER, 2015-06-01)Elevated global temperatures are expected to alter vegetation dynamics by interacting with physiological processes, biotic relationships and disturbance regimes. However, few studies have explicitly modeled the effects of these interactions on rates of vegetation change, despite such information being critical to forecasting temporal patterns in vegetation dynamics. In this study, we build and parameterize rate-change models for three dominant alpine life forms using data from a 7-year warming experiment. These models allowed us to examine how the interactions between experimental warming, the abundance of bare ground (a measure of past disturbance) and neighboring life forms (a measure of life form interaction) affect rates of cover change in alpine shrubs, graminoids and forbs. We show that experimental warming altered rates of life form cover change by reducing the negative effects of neighboring life forms and positive effects of bare ground. Furthermore, we show that our models can predict the observed direction and rate of life form cover change at burned and unburned long-term monitoring sites. Model simulations revealed that warming in unburned vegetation is expected to result in increased forb and shrub cover and decreased graminoid cover. In contrast, in burned vegetation, warming is predicted to slow post-fire regeneration in both graminoids and forbs and facilitate rapid expansion in shrub cover. These findings illustrate the applicability of modeling rates of vegetation change using experimental data. Our results also highlight the need to account for both disturbance and the abundance of other life forms when examining and forecasting vegetation dynamics under climatic change.
-
ItemFuels and landscape flammability in an Australian alpine environment(WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2016-09-01)Factors governing landscape‐scale flammability are poorly understood, yet critical to managing fire regimes. Studies of the extent and severity of the 2003 Australian alpine fires revealed marked differences in flammability between major alpine plant communities, with the occurrence and severity of fire greater in heathland compared to grassland. To understand this spatial variation in landscape flammability, we documented variation in two physical properties of fuel – load and bulk density – at the life‐form and plant community scale. We measured the load (mass per unit area) and bulk density (mass per unit volume) of fine fuels (<6 mm) at 56 sites across the Bogong High Plains, southeastern Australia. Fine fuel load was positively correlated with shrub cover, and fine fuel bulk density was negatively correlated with shrub cover. Furthermore, fine fuel load and bulk density were accurately predicted using simple measures of canopy height and shrub cover. We also conducted a burning experiment on individual shrubs and snowgrass (Poa spp.) patches to assess comparative differences in flammability between these life‐forms. The burning experiment revealed that shrubs were more flammable than snowgrass as measured by a range of flammability variables. Consequently, our results indicate that treeless alpine landscapes of southeastern Australia are differentially flammable because of inherent life‐form differences in both fine fuel load and bulk density. If shrub cover increases in these alpine landscapes, as projected under climate change, then they are likely to become more flammable and may experience more frequent and/or severe fires.