School of BioSciences - Research Publications

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Author: Golding, Nicholas × Author: Shearer, Freya × Start date: 2020 × Type: Journal Article × End date: 2023 ×

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    COVID-19 vaccine coverage targets to inform reopening plans in a low incidence setting
    Conway, E ; Walker, CR ; Baker, C ; Lydeamore, MJ ; Ryan, GE ; Campbell, T ; Miller, JC ; Rebuli, N ; Yeung, M ; Kabashima, G ; Geard, N ; Wood, J ; McCaw, JM ; McVernon, J ; Golding, N ; Price, DJ ; Shearer, FM (ROYAL SOC, 2023-08-30)
    Since the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 through to mid-2021, much of the Australian population lived in a COVID-19-free environment. This followed the broadly successful implementation of a strong suppression strategy, including international border closures. With the availability of COVID-19 vaccines in early 2021, the national government sought to transition from a state of minimal incidence and strong suppression activities to one of high vaccine coverage and reduced restrictions but with still-manageable transmission. This transition is articulated in the national 're-opening' plan released in July 2021. Here, we report on the dynamic modelling study that directly informed policies within the national re-opening plan including the identification of priority age groups for vaccination, target vaccine coverage thresholds and the anticipated requirements for continued public health measures-assuming circulation of the Delta SARS-CoV-2 variant. Our findings demonstrated that adult vaccine coverage needed to be at least 60% to minimize public health and clinical impacts following the establishment of community transmission. They also supported the need for continued application of test-trace-isolate-quarantine and social measures during the vaccine roll-out phase and beyond.