School of BioSciences - Research Publications
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ItemA working guide to spatial mechanistic modelling in Julia(Wiley Open Access, 2022-05)Models that can predict the dynamics of larger scale ecological processes are increasingly important in a rapidly changing world. The Julia language gives a unique opportunity to produce new, generic tools to develop spatial mechanistic models, and to simultaneously increase their performance, resolution and predictive power. Here, we describe two new Julia software packages, DynamicGrids.jl and Dispersal.jl, that facilitate the development of spatial mechanistic models that are concise, extensible and performant, with several key attributes. First, they allow arbitrary spatially and temporally heterogeneous inputs (e.g. regional climatic data to drive population dynamics). Second, they apply rules to discrete spatial grids, including: (a) single grid cells (e.g. population growth, Allee effects, land‐use change), (b) neighborhoods (e.g. local dispersal); and (c) arbitrary locations (e.g. long‐distance wind dispersal, human‐mediated dispersal). Finally, they allow interactions between multiple grids (e.g. predator–prey models, management/environmental feedbacks). Through in‐line examples, we explore how these properties can be used to develop simple and complex grid‐based mechanistic models that run on both CPUs and GPUs. We demonstrate models of population growth, wind and self‐directed dispersal and host–parasitoid dynamics. We also demonstrate the ease by which custom rules can be combined with rules provided by packages, and the potential for use in other fields and interdisciplinary research. These Julia packages provide concise, extensible and performant tools for a wide range of grid‐based spatial models in ecology and beyond. More broadly, they highlight new opportunities for ecological modelling using the Julia language, with its combination of clear syntax, extensibility from its solution to the expression problem and its performance on CPUs and GPUs.
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ItemWarmer temperatures reduce chemical tolerance in the redlegged earth mite (Halotydeus destructor), an invasive winter-active pest(JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, 2022-07)
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ItemRegional and seasonal activity predictions for fall armyworm in Australia.(Elsevier BV, 2021)Since 2016, the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda, has undergone a significant range expansion from its native range in the Americas, to continental Africa, Asia, and in February 2020, mainland Australia. The large dispersal potential of FAW adults, wide host range of immature feeding stages, and unique environmental conditions in its invasive range creates large uncertainties in the expected impact on Australian plant production industries. Here, using a spatial model of population growth and spread potential informed by existing biological and climatic data, we simulate seasonal population activity potential of FAW, with a focus on Australia's grain production regions. Our results show that, in Australia, the large spread potential of FAW will allow it to exploit temporarily favourable conditions for population growth across highly variable climatic conditions. It is estimated that FAW populations would be present in a wide range of grain growing regions at certain times of year, but importantly, the expected seasonal activity will vary markedly between regions and years depending on climatic conditions. The window of activity for FAW will be longer for growing regions further north, with some regions possessing conditions conducive to year-round population survival. Seasonal migrations from this permanent range into southern regions, where large areas of annual grain crops are grown annually, are predicted to commence from October, i.e. spring, with populations subsequently building up into summer. The early stage of the FAW incursion into Australia means our predictions of seasonal activity potential will need to be refined as more Australian-specific information is accumulated. This study has contributed to our early understanding of FAW movement and population dynamics in Australia. Importantly, the models established here provide a useful framework that will be available to other countries should FAW invade in the future. To increase the robustness of our model, field sampling to identify conditions under which population growth occurs, and the location of source populations for migration events is required. This will enable accurate forecasting and early warning to farmers, which should improve pest monitoring and control programs of FAW.
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ItemPredicting the global invasion of Drosophila suzukii to improve Australian biosecurity preparedness(WILEY, 2021-04)Predicting biological invasions remains a challenge to applied ecologists and limits pre‐emptive management of biosecurity threats. In the last decade, spotted‐wing drosophila Drosophila suzukii has emerged as an internationally significant agricultural pest as it rapidly spread across Europe and the Americas. However, the underlying drivers of its global invasion remain unstudied, while countries like Australia, presently free from D. suzukii, require robust estimates of spread and establishment potential to aid development of effective preparedness strategies. Here, we analysed the ecoclimatic and human‐mediated drivers of the global invasion of D. suzukii to understand historical spread patterns and improve forecasts of future spread potential. Using a modular approach, climate‐driven population dynamics were linked in space via dispersal processes to simulate spread at continental scales. Combined with biological parameters measured in laboratory studies, the spread model was parameterized and validated on international spread data. Model accuracy was high and was able to predict 83% of regional presence–absence through time in the United States and, without further model fitting, 78% of the variation in the Europe incursion. Omitting human‐assisted spread from the model reduced predictability by over 20%, highlighting the large anthropogenic influence in this modern biological invasion. Economic activity (GDP) rather than human population density was more strongly associated with human‐mediated spread. Simulations predicted that eastern Australian coastal regions, particularly those near major cities with high economic activity, will result in the fastest spread of D. suzukii. Synthesis and applications. Incursions of Drosophila suzukii into Australia will have significant consequences for horticultural industries with the predicted speed of spread making eradication programs extremely difficult. However, the identified areas of significant fruit production, and high environmental suitability and economic activity will form a logical means for prioritizing industry preparedness. In light of our findings, a key component of preparedness strategies will be the ability of fruit producers to rapidly transition to effective management of D. suzukii.
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ItemSusceptibility of the bird cherry-oat aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (Hemiptera: Aphididae), to four insecticides(WILEY, 2020-11)Abstract The bird‐cherry oat aphid (Rhopalosiphum padi) is a global pest, attacking most cereal crops including barley, wheat, oats and triticale. The aphids cause yield losses through direct feeding damage and the transmission of plant viruses. In Australia, feeding injury can reduce cereal yields by 6%, with the damage caused by aphid‐vectored viruses reducing the yield of cereal crops by up to 30%. Aphid control in these crops is achieved almost exclusively with insecticides, and there is growing concern surrounding insecticide resistance evolution in multiple aphid species. In this study, nine field populations of R. padi were collected from localities representing the major grain growing regions of Australia. Toxicity data against four insecticides (dimethoate, alpha‐cypermethrin, pirimicarb and imidacloprid) was generated for each aphid population. This revealed little differences in population responses for three of these insecticides. For alpha‐cypermethrin, a widely used insecticide in Australia, there were significant differences between several populations. These data will be important for future monitoring of insecticide responses of R. padi and highlight the impending pest management challenges growers could encounter in Australia.
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ItemOntogeny in the European earwig (Forficula auricularia) and grain crops interact to exacerbate feeding damage risk(Wiley, 2020-08-01)The preference of herbivores for different host plants can be modulated by plant ontogeny. In agricultural pest management, this has implications for sowing dates and pest monitoring. In the last 20 years, the European earwig (Forficula auricularia), a cosmopolitan pest, has been increasingly implicated in damage to grain crops in Australia. Among these, rapeseed, Brassica napus, appears especially at risk, but little information on F. auricularia as a grain pest is available. We tested the susceptibility of seven grain crops commonly grown in Australia to infestation by F. auricularia using closed microcosm experiments, exposing plant seedlings at two early growth stages to four different life stages of F. auricularia. Lucerne and rapeseed were shown to be the most vulnerable crops, and younger seedlings experienced significantly more damage than older seedlings across all crop types. Fourth instar F. auricularia were found to cause greater feeding damage than younger or older earwigs, while adults collected in winter generally caused more damage than those collected in summer. Surprisingly, even second instar F. auricularia caused greater damage than summer adults. This variation could reflect the ontogenetically dynamic nutritional needs of earwigs. Recent studies of F. auricularia's life cycle in southern Australia indicate that these damaging life stages have some overlap with sowing dates of the crops tested here, exposing their vulnerable seedling stage to infestation. The phenology of F. auricularia in southern Australia therefore partly drives its ability to act as a pest. Future monitoring will likely need to track the distribution of F. auricularia life stages in order to effectively mitigate risks to vulnerable crops.
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ItemA molecular method for biomonitoring of an exotic plant-pest: Leafmining for environmental DNA(WILEY, 2021-10)Understanding how invasive species respond to novel environments is limited by a lack of sensitivity and throughput in conventional biomonitoring methods. Arthropods in particular are often difficult to monitor due to their small size, rapid lifecycles, and/or visual similarities with co-occurring species. This is true for the agromyzid leafminer fly, Liriomyza sativae, a global pest of vegetable and nursery industries that has recently established in Australia. A robust method based on environmental DNA (eDNA) was developed exploiting traces of DNA left inside "empty" leaf mines, which are straightforward to collect and persist longer in the environment than the fly. This extends the window of possible diagnosis to at least 28 days after a leaf mine becomes empty. The test allowed for visually indistinguishable leafmining damage caused by L. sativae to be genetically differentiated from that of other flies. Field application resulted in the identification of new local plant hosts for L. sativae, including widely distributed weeds and common garden crops, which has important implications for the pest's ability to spread. Moreover, the test confirmed the presence of a previously unknown population of L. sativae on an island in the Torres Strait. The developed eDNA method is likely to become an important tool for L. sativae and other leafmining species of biosecurity significance, which, historically, have been difficult to detect, diagnose and monitor. More generally, eDNA is emerging as a highly sensitive and labour-efficient surveillance tool for difficult to survey species to improve outcomes for agricultural industries, global health, and the environment.
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ItemPests of Australian dairy pastures: distribution, seasonality and potential impacts on pasture production(WILEY, 2021-11)Abstract The dairy industry provides an important contribution to the Australian economy, but its productivity relies on grass pastures that suffer significant damage from invertebrate pests. Managing these pests remains a challenge as information on their abundance and impact is only available for a handful of taxa in a few Australian dairy regions. In this study, we undertook an extensive survey of above‐ and below‐ground pest communities across seven dairy regions in south‐eastern Australia by repeatedly sampling 57 paddocks in 2017 and 2018. We then applied energetic models to estimate the amount of metabolisable energy produced by pastures that are potentially consumed by pests. Our survey indicates that dairy farmers encounter a similar composition of above‐ground pests in most sampled regions, with a few pests, especially Sminthurus viridis (lucerne flea) and Rhopalosiphum padi (bird cherry‐oat aphid), dominating pest communities. Below‐ground pests were more variable between regions and are more likely to require region‐specific control strategies. Our energetic modelling suggests that pests consume a threefold greater percentage of metabolisable energy produced by pastures during autumn than spring. S. viridis and R. padi were among the most economically important pests across all regions and seasons, while other pests, including several species of scarabs and the small pointed snail, Prietocella barbara, were predicted to be particularly damaging in specific regions. Together, our field survey and energetic modelling provide baseline information to assist dairy farmers manage invertebrate pests and help guide future research in the Australian dairy industry.
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ItemStrip spraying delays pyrethroid resistance in the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor: a novel refuge strategy(JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD, 2021-10)