Economics - Research Publications
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ItemWhat Do We Know About the Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy? A Brief Survey of the Literature on Fiscal Multipliers(Wiley, 2019-03-01)This article discusses recent research on the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy—the theme of the 2018 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting. We review recent research findings on the effects of fiscal multipliers in normal times, during booms/busts, and in the presence of the zero lower bound. Studies on the effects of fiscal policy in open economy settings as well as contributions on the fiscal‐monetary policy mix are also considered. We conclude by outlining a few research avenues that are particularly relevant from a policy standpoint.
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ItemLABOR'S SHARE, THE FIRM'S MARKET POWER, AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY(WILEY, 2018-10)We investigate the relationship between labor's share, firm's market power, and the elasticity of output with respect to labor input using an approach based on an unobserved components model. The approach yields time‐varying estimates of market power and the elasticity. Evidence on the market power of firms (which we find to be rising since 2000) gives a deeper understanding of movements in labor's share and the labor wedge. The generated values of the elasticity yield revised estimates of total factor productivity growth which is informative about the extent of the downward bias inherent in traditional estimates which use labor's share as a proxy for the elasticity. (JEL O47, C32, E25)
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ItemMacroeconomic Policies in a Low Interest Rate Environment: Back to Keynes?(WILEY, 2018-03)ABSTRACT This article discusses macroeconomic policies in a low interest rate environment, the central theme of the 2017 edition of the Melbourne Institute Macroeconomic Policy Meeting. After reviewing possible causes of the decline in interest rates observed since the 1990s, we present and discuss some of the challenges that monetary and fiscal policy face in a ‘new normal’ environment characterised by a real natural interest rate close to zero. Proposals by leading researchers on how to operate in such an environment are presented and discussed. We conclude by outlining some research questions that are highly relevant from a policy perspective.
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ItemRevisiting the Okun relationship(Taylor & Francis, 2017)Our article revisits the Okun relationship between observed unemployment rates and output gaps. We include in the relationship the effect of labour market institutions as well as age and gender effects. Our empirical analysis is based on 20 OECD countries over the period 1985–2013. We find that the share of temporary workers (which includes a high and rising share of young workers) played a crucial role in explaining changes in the Okun coefficient (the impact of the output gap on the unemployment rate) over time. The Okun coefficient is not only different for young, prime-age and older workers but also it decreases with age. From a policy perspective, it follows that an increase in economic growth will not only have the desired outcome of reducing the overall unemployment rate but it will also have the distributional effect of lowering youth unemployment.
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ItemPhillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate*(Wiley, 2009-12)A time‐varying Phillips Curve was estimated as a means to examine the changing nature of the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in Australia. The implied time‐varying equilibrium unemployment rate was generated and the analysis showed the important role played by variations in the slope of the Phillips Curve in changing the equilibrium unemployment rate. The deviations of actual unemployment rates from the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates also performed remarkably well as measures of inflationary pressure.
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ItemAn employment equation for Australia(ECONOMIC SOC OF AUSTRALIA BROWN PRIOR ANDERSON PTY LTD, 2005-09)
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ItemDeviations from uncovered interest parity in Malaysia(Informa UK Limited, 2006-06-15)
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