Economics - Research Publications

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Author: Martin, Vance × End date: 2022 × Start date: 2020 × Type: Journal Article ×

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    The Dynamics of Structural Transformation in Australia, 1960-2020
    Chindamo, P ; Martin, VL (WILEY, 2022-09)
    A dynamic long‐run general equilibrium framework based on a structural vector error correction model is used to study the factors determining the structural transformation of the Australian economy from 1960 to 2020. Three sets of shocks are identified: demand shocks through aggregate consumption, supply shocks caused by changes in relative prices across industries, and shocks arising from deviations between observed and long‐run industry employment shares. The empirical results highlight the importance of all shocks in causing the structural transformation of the Australian economy across industries and over time. The results are found to be robust to a range of sensitivity experiments.
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    Modeling time varying risk of natural resource assets: Implications of climate change
    Leroux, AD ; Martin, VL ; St John, KA (WILEY, 2022-01)
    A multivariate GARCH model of natural resources is specified to capture the effects of time varying portfolio risk. A special feature of the model is the inclusion of realized volatility for natural resource assets that are available at multiple frequencies as well as being sensitive to sudden changes in climatic conditions. Natural resource portfolios under climate change are simulated from bootstrapping schemes as well as being derived from global climate model projections. Both approaches are applied to a multiasset water portfolio model consisting of reservoir inflows, rainwater harvesting, and desalinated water. The empirical results show that while reservoirs remain the dominant water asset, adaptation to climate change involves increased contributions from rainwater harvesting and more frequent use of desalinated water. It is estimated that climate change increases annual water supply costs by between 7% and 44% over a 20‐year forecast horizon.