- Economics - Research Publications
Economics - Research Publications
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ItemOvercoming measurement error problems in the use of survey data on expectationsLee, K ; Shields, K (BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2007-09)Survey data frequently requires conversion from qualitative responses to quantitative series and it is often asserted that the conversion procedures introduce measurement errors that render the series unusable in structural modelling. We investigate the nature and treatment of the measurement error that arises when conversion procedures are used to obtain direct measures of expectations. We use simulation experiments to demonstrate the need for the adequate treatment of conversion errors and show that a procedure proposed to ‘purge’ the series of conversion error is extremely successful in circumventing the problems. We illustrate the procedures in empirical applications using business survey data.
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ItemMeasuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocksShields, K ; Olekalns, N ; Henry, OT ; Brooks, C (M I T PRESS, 2005-05)
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ItemThe impact of monetary union on macroeconomic integration: Evidence from West AfricaFielding, D ; Shields, K (WILEY, 2005-11)Data from 19 African nations is used to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union—represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone—augments the extent of macroeconomic integration. The paper covers two key dimensions of integration: the volume of bilateral trade, and the magnitude of cross‐country business cycle correlation. Restricting our attention to a part of the world in which (for historical reasons) monetary union membership is exogenous to economic characteristics, we can test whether the large single‐currency effects claimed by A. Rose apply within a sample of less developed countries.
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ItemThe asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growthGrier, KB ; Henry, OT ; Olekalns, N ; Shields, K (WILEY, 2004-09-01)
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ItemREAL-TIME REPRESENTATIONS OF THE OUTPUT GAPGarratt, A ; Lee, K ; Mise, E ; Shields, K (MIT PRESS, 2008-11)