Economics - Research Publications

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End date: 2004 × Start date: 2004 × Type: Preprint × Subject: age ratios ×

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    Global projections of household numbers using age determined ratios
    Jennings, V. E. ; LLoyd-Smith, C. W. ; Ironmonger, D. S. ( 2004-09)
    A new method based upon age determined population ratios is described and used to estimatehousehold population intensities (households per person). Using an additive and a bounded modelhousehold projections are given to 2050 for the world and to 2030 for seven fertility transitionsubgroups (cohorts) of the countries of the world. Based upon United Nations 2002 Revision data,from an estimated 1.56 billion households at 2000, household growth to 2030 is projected to be anadditional 1.1 billion households, whether population increase is 1.3 billion persons under theUnited Nations low fertility variant or 2.7 billion persons under the high fertility variant. At thatdate over one third of all households are projected to be Chinese or Indian. By 2050 it is projectedthat there will be 3.3 billion households with a 95 per cent confidence interval on modelling erroronly of ± 0.5 billion. This compares with 3.2 billion in the Habitat: Global Report on HumanSettlements 1996. The apparent similarity of total household growth under various scenariosconceals a wide range in the growth of household intensities across fertility transition cohorts. It issuggested that models, projections and error be reviewed biennially and that household andpopulation projections be produced jointly.