Economics - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 10 of 452
-
ItemOn the Impact, Detection and Treatment of Outliers in Robust Loss Reserving(Actuaries Institute, 2016)The sensitivity of loss reserving techniques to outliers in the data or deviations from model assumptions is a well known challenge. For instance, it has been shown that the popular chain-ladder reserving approach is at significant risk to such aberrant observations in that reserve estimates can be significantly shifted in the presence of even one outlier. In this paper we firstly investigate the sensitivity of reserves and mean squared errors of prediction under Mack's Model. This is done through the derivation of impact functions which are calculated by taking the first derivative of the relevant statistic of interest with respect to an observation. We also provide and discuss the impact functions for quantiles when total reserves are assumed to be lognormally distributed. Additionally, comparisons are made between the impact functions for individual accident year reserves under Mack's Model and the Bornhuetter-Ferguson methodology. It is shown that the impact of incremental claims on these statistics of interest varies widely throughout a loss triangle and is heavily dependent on other cells in the triangle. We then put forward two alternative robust bivariate chain-ladder techniques (Verdonck and VanWouwe, 2011) based on Adjusted-Outlyingness (Hubert and Van der Veeken, 2008) and bagdistance (Hubert et al., 2016). These techniques provide a measure of outlyingness that is unique to each individual observation rather than largely relying on graphical representations as is done under the existing bagplot methodology. Furthermore the Adjusted Outlyingness approach explicitly incorporates a robust measure of skewness into the analysis whereas the bagplot captures the shape of the data only through a measure of rank. Results are illustrated on two sets of real bivariate data from general insurers.
-
ItemGambling with Stimulus Payments: Feeding Gaming Machines with Federal Dollars(Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2013)In late 2008 and early 2009 the Australian Federal Government introduced a series of economic stimulus packages designed to maintain consumer spending in the early days of the Great Recession. When these packages were initiated the media suggested that the wide-spread availability of electronic gaming machines (EGMs, eg. slot machines, poker machines, video lottery terminals) in Australia would result in stimulating the EGMs. Using state level monthly data we estimate the degree to which the stimulus payments influenced EGM expenditure and the implications for state and territory gaming tax revenues.
-
ItemInverse test confidence intervals for turning-points: A demonstration with higher order polynomials(Emerald Publishing, 2012)In this chapter we demonstrate the construction of inverse test confidence intervals for the turning points in estimated nonlinear relationships by the use of the marginal or first derivative function. First, we outline the inverse test confidence interval approach. Then we examine the relationship between the traditional confidence intervals based on the Wald test for the turning-points for a cubic, a quartic and fractional polynomials estimated via regression analysis and the inverse test intervals. We show that the confidence interval plots of the marginal function can be used to estimate confidence intervals for the turning points that are equivalent to the inverse test. We also provide a method for the interpretation of the confidence intervals for the second derivative function to draw inferences for the characteristics of the turning-point. This method is applied to the examination of the turning points found when estimating a quartic and a fractional polynomial from data used for the estimation of an Environmental Kuznets Curve. The Stata do files used to generate these examples are listed in the appendix along with the data.
-
ItemThe influence of student experiences on post-graduation surveys(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2016-02-17)This study attempts to establish the extent to which in-class teaching quality instruments can be used to predict post-graduation survey results. It examines the responses for the Good Teaching Scale of the Course Experience Questionnaire administered to 10,433 students who completed their studies at a major Australian tertiary institution from 2003 to 2005 using a unique data-set that matched student records and measures of class characteristics to the individual survey responses. The findings indicate that the overall degree experiences of particular students can be predicted by measures of class differences as measured by teaching quality instruments and the grade distributions of the classes they completed. These factors are in addition to the effects of students’ own performance as measured by their grades, their field of study and their post-graduation experience. It was found that in-class administered teaching quality instruments have an asymmetric influence on post-graduation survey results. Higher than expected scores appear to have little impact, and lower than expected results were found to have a significant negative impact on post-graduation recollections. The grade distribution in classes taken was also found to be an important factor in explaining variation in degree satisfaction.
-
ItemA Comparison of Policy Instruments to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(WILEY, 2016-09)Tax, emission trading schemes, regulations and subsidy policy instruments to reduce Australian greenhouse gas emissions are assessed. Australian recent and proposed examples are used as illustrations. Comparative pollution reduction cost, tax interaction distortion costs, redistribution effects and operating cost properties are evaluated. A tax instrument with a comprehensive base, combined with recycling the revenue windfall to households, is argued to be a suitable guideline for future policy; some regulations to counter information and other market failures can be important complements.
-
ItemAntipodean agricultural and resource economics at 60: booming sector economics(WILEY, 2016-10)Contributions of Australian economists to understand the effects of a boom export industry are reviewed. Effects are considered on: the real exchange rate; output, prices and factor incomes of the boom industry, other trade‐exposed industries and nontraded industries; and national income and its distribution. Theoretical models and empirical models are reviewed. Different effects are considered for supply‐side‐ versus demand‐side‐driven booms, and then for the price increase, investment increase and production increase phases of the boom. Evaluations of industry and macroeconomic policy options are canvassed.
-
Item
-
ItemImport dynamics and demands for protection(WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2016-08)Abstract What kinds of changes in foreign competition lead domestic industries to seek import protection? To address this question, we use detailed monthly US import data to investigate changes in import composition during a 24‐month window immediately preceding the filing of a petition for import protection. A decomposition methodology allows a comparison of imports from two groups of countries supplying the same product: those that are named in the petition and those that are not. The same decomposition can be applied to products quite similar to the imports in question, but not subject to a petition. The results suggest that industries typically seek protection when faced with a specific pattern of shocks. First, a persistent positive relative supply shock favours imports from named countries. Second, a negative demand shock hits imports from all sources just prior to domestic industries’ petition for protection. The relative supply shock is a broad one; it applies both to named commodities and to the comparison product group. The import demand shock, by contrast, is narrow, hitting only named products. This negative import demand shock appears to be a key event in the run‐up to the filing of a petition. This latter shock has been missed by previous studies using more aggregated data.
-
Item
-
ItemPublic-private mix of health expenditure: A political economy and quantitative analysis(WILEY, 2016-05)Abstract This paper constructs a simple model to examine decisions on public and private health spending under majority voting. In the model, agents with heterogeneous incomes choose how much to consume and spend on health care and vote for public health expenditure. The health status of an agent is determined by a CES composite of public and private health expenditure. The existence and uniqueness of the voting equilibrium are established. A quantitative exercise reveals the importance of the relative effectiveness of public and private health expenditure and their substitutability in determining the public‐private mix of health expenditure and in accounting for the observed differences across a sample of 22 advanced democratic countries.