Economics - Research Publications
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ItemDoes one size fit all? Modelling macroeconomic linkages in the West African Economic and Monetary Union(SPRINGER, 2012-02-01)We construct a structural macroeconometric model for member states of the West African Economic and Monetary Union (UEMOA). Fitting this model to annual and quarterly time-series data allows us to identify the channels through which macroeconomic innovations in one country impact on other countries in the union. We also discover the extent of heterogeneity across the member states in terms of the degree of similarity of macroeconomic transmission mechanisms. This is one important element in measuring the costs of union membership for each country.
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ItemMaking Fiscal Adjustments Using Event Probability Forecasts in OECD Countries(Wiley, 2020-09-01)This paper describes an approach to making fiscal policy decisions based on probabilistic statements on the likely occurrence of events as specified in a rules‐based framework for making fiscal adjustments. The event probability forecasts are obtained from a simple time series econometric model of the key variables influencing debt dynamics (interest rates, output and debt itself). The approach is applied to data for ten developed countries for 1956–2016 and the analysis demonstrates the importance of accommodating international linkages in forecasting, noting that failure to do so would have led to excessive fiscal cutbacks and austerity in recent years.
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ItemThe Australian Real-Time Fiscal Database: An Overview with Illustrations of Its Use in Analysing Fiscal Policy(Wiley, 2020-03-01)This paper describes a fiscal database for Australia including measures of government spending, revenue, deficits, debt and various sub‐aggregates as initially published and subsequently revised. The data vintages are collated from various sources and provide a comprehensive description of the Australian fiscal environment as experienced in real time. Methods are described which exploit the richness of the real‐time data sets, and they are illustrated through an analysis of the extent to which stated fiscal plans are realised in practice and through the estimation of fiscal multipliers which draw a distinction between policy responses and policy initiatives. We find predictable differences between plans and actual fiscal policy and a larger multiplier for policy initiatives than for implementation errors.
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ItemEvaluating the use of realtime data in forecasting output levels and recessionary events in the USA(Wiley, 2019-01-01)The paper proposes a modelling framework and evaluation procedure to judge the usefulness of realtime data sets incorporating past data vintages and survey expectations in forecasting. The analysis is based on ‘metamodels’ obtained by using model averaging techniques and judged by various statistical and economic criteria, including a novel criterion based on a fair bet. Analysing US output data over 1968, quarter 4–2015, quarter 1, we find that both elements of the realtime data are useful with their contributions varying over time. Revisions data are particularly valuable for point and density forecasts of growth but survey expectations are important in forecasting rare recessionary events.
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ItemAn Introduction to Data Cleaning Using Internet Search Data(John Wiley & Sons, 2017-09)This article considers the issue of data cleaning. We use state‐level data on internet search activity in the United States to illustrate several common data cleaning tasks, including frequency conversion and data scaling as well as methods for handling sampling uncertainty and accommodating structural breaks and outliers. We emphasise that data cleaning relies on informed judgement and so it is important to maintain transparency through careful documentation of data cleaning procedures.
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ItemInformation rigidities and the news-adjusted output gap(Elsevier, 2016)A vector-autoregressive model of actual output and expected output obtained from surveys is used to test for information rigidities and to provide a characterisation of output dynamics that accommodates these information structures. News on actual and expected outputs is decomposed to identify innovations understood to have short-lived effects and these are used with the model to derive a ‘news-adjusted output gap׳ measure. The approach is applied to US data over 1970q1–2014q2 and the new gap measure is shown to provide a good leading indicator of inflation.
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ItemTime Variation and Asymmetry in the World Price of Covariance Risk: The Implications for International Diversification( 2004-06)The International Capital Asset Pricing Model measures countryrisk in terms of the conditional covariance of national returns withthe world return. Using impulse responses from a multivariate nonlinearmodel we provide evidence of time variation and asymmetry inthe measure of country risk. and the implied benefit to internationaldiversification. The evidence implies that the price of risk and the benefitsfrom diversification may differ in a statistically and economicallymeaningful fashion across bull and bear markets.
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ItemOvercoming measurement error problems in the use of survey data on expectations(BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2007-09-01)
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ItemSign and phase asymmetry: News, economic activity and the stock market(ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2010-12-01)