Economics - Research Publications
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ItemOpportunities and Challenges for CGE Models in Analysing Taxation(WILEY, 2018-03)Taxation analysis seeks to describe the effects of current taxes, make forecasts and assess proposed reform options. In each case, the effects on market outcomes, distribution of the tax burden and distortions to decisions and economic efficiency are estimated. When second‐round effects are important, including for most taxes on business and where exemptions from comprehensive tax bases are significant, general equilibrium models are required. A computer general equilibrium model (CGE) with detailed and disaggregated industry, product and factor markets has great potential to quantify the general equilibrium effects of taxation. Challenges and areas for development of available CGE models for taxation analysis include the following: disaggregation of households to assess distribution effects and allow for different elasticities; modelling the effects of the hybrid tax treatment of different household saving and investment options; disaggregation of some business decisions to capture the effects of departures from comprehensive tax bases and of decision‐makers facing different tax systems; and modelling and conveying the implications of imperfect knowledge of key assumptions and parameters.
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ItemTime series copulas for heteroskedastic data(WILEY, 2018-04-01)Summary We propose parametric copulas that capture serial dependence in stationary heteroskedastic time series. We suggest copulas for first‐order Markov series, and then extend them to higher orders and multivariate series. We derive the copula of a volatility proxy, based on which we propose new measures of volatility dependence, including co‐movement and spillover in multivariate series. In general, these depend upon the marginal distributions of the series. Using exchange rate returns, we show that the resulting copula models can capture their marginal distributions more accurately than univariate and multivariate generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity models, and produce more accurate value‐at‐risk forecasts.
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ItemA REVIEW OF THE RECENT LITERATURE ON THE INSTITUTIONAL ECONOMICS ANALYSIS OF THE LONG-RUN PERFORMANCE OF NATIONS(WILEY, 2018-02)Abstract This paper reviews the recent (post‐2000) literature that assesses the importance of institutions as a factor determining cross‐country differences in growth rates or in the contemporary level of “prosperity.” It first sketches how institutional economics has evolved. It then examines critically the methods of analysis employed in the recent literature. The paper finds that this literature has made a major contribution to the analysis of the causes of economic growth but the relative importance of institutions as a determinant of long‐run growth and prosperity is still a wide open question.
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ItemEnvironmental Water Efficiency: Maximizing Benefits and Minimizing Costs of Environmental Water Use and Management(WILEY, 2018)Environmental water management is a relatively new discipline, with concepts, management practice and institutional mechanisms that are still emerging. The efficient and effective use of environmental water to maximize environmental benefits, or environmental water use efficiency, is one such emerging concept. Currently, much of the focus is on allocative efficiency, where the objective is to achieve a better balance between consumptive and environmental water uses in a cost‐effective way. However, this may not provide the most efficient and effective way to manage environmental water in the long term, where managers are seeking productive (or operational) efficiency. Here, the objective is to maximize environmental outcomes relative to the cost of managing the available resource. This paper explores the concept of water use efficiency in the context of environmental water.
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ItemSurprised by the Hot Hand Fallacy? A Truth in the Law of Small Numbers(Econometric Society, 2018-11-01)We prove that a subtle but substantial bias exists in a common measure of the conditional dependence of present outcomes on streaks of past outcomes in sequential data. The magnitude of this streak selection bias generally decreases as the sequence gets longer, but increases in streak length, and remains substantial for a range of sequence lengths often used in empirical work. We observe that the canonical study in the influential hot hand fallacy literature, along with replications, are vulnerable to the bias. Upon correcting for the bias, we find that the longstanding conclusions of the canonical study are reversed.
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ItemPolicy Forum: Cryptocurrencies Introduction(WILEY, 2018-12)
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ItemRatios of Parameters: Some Econometric Examples(WILEY, 2018-12)Abstract Ratios of parameter estimates are often used in econometric applications. However, constructing confidence intervals (CIs) for these ratios can cause difficulties since the ratio of asymptotically normally distributed random variables are Cauchy distributed and thus have no finite moments. This article presents a method for the estimation of CIs based on the Fieller approach that has been shown to be preferable to the usual Delta method. Using example applications in Stata and R, we demonstrate that a few extra steps in the examination of the estimate of the ratio can provide a CI with superior coverage.
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ItemEffects of supermarket monopsony pricing on agriculture(WILEY, 2018-10)Potential effects of alleged monopsony pricing of farm food products by supermarkets on farm product prices, quantities, incomes and land values are assessed relative to competitive behaviour. A long‐run comparative static equilibrium model is used. For export‐competing and import‐competing products, the farm food input supply curve facing the supermarkets is close to perfectly elastic and this limits monopsony behaviour. At the margin, the opportunity to reallocate agricultural land between traded and nontraded farm products means a highly elastic supply function for nontraded food inputs facing supermarkets and very limited monopsony effects.
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ItemPolicy Forum: Economics and Populism Introduction(WILEY, 2018-09)
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ItemPolicy Options to Reduce Electricity Greenhouse Gas Emissions(WILEY, 2018-12)Abstract The design and effects of different schemes to reduce greenhouse gas emissions associated with the production and consumption of electricity are modelled. The tax scheme achieves the lowest cost per unit emission reduction because it encourages both businesses and consumers to reduce emissions, and the recycled windfall revenue can meet equity objectives. Comparing the Emissions Intensity Scheme (EIS), Clean Energy Target (CET) and Renewable Energy Target (RET) schemes with common government revenue neutral and emissions reduction design outcomes, the EIS provides better incentives to generators to find the lower cost per unit emissions reduction.