Economics - Research Publications

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    Gambling with Stimulus Payments: Feeding Gaming Machines with Federal Dollars
    Hirschberg, JG ; Lye, JN (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2013)
    In late 2008 and early 2009 the Australian Federal Government introduced a series of economic stimulus packages designed to maintain consumer spending in the early days of the Great Recession. When these packages were initiated the media suggested that the wide-spread availability of electronic gaming machines (EGMs, eg. slot machines, poker machines, video lottery terminals) in Australia would result in stimulating the EGMs. Using state level monthly data we estimate the degree to which the stimulus payments influenced EGM expenditure and the implications for state and territory gaming tax revenues.
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    Investment in Australian Aboriginal Art
    Lye, JN ; Hirschberg, JG (Elsevier BV, 2020)
    Recent changes in Australian legislation that limit the value of how artworks that can be considered as assets in retirement funds have had an impact on the Australian Aboriginal Art market. In this paper we estimate the impact of these changes on the price index based on prices paid for 15,845 works by over 200 artists at art auctions from 1986 to 2019. Using an OLS and a quantile regression approach, we estimate hedonic price models for various segments of the Australian Aboriginal art market. These models are used to estimate price indices in order to investigate if the changes in Australian laws concerning the sale and use of art assets has influenced the potential returns for different segments of the market.
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    Confidence Intervals for Ratios: Econometric Examples with Stata
    Lye, JN ; Hirschberg, JG (Elsevier BV, 2018)
    Ratios of parameter estimates are often used in econometric applications. However, the test of these ratios when estimated can cause difficulties since the ratio of asymptotically normally distributed random variables have a Cauchy distribution for which there are no finite moments. This paper presents a method for the estimation of confidence intervals based on the Fieller approach that has been shown to be preferable to the usual Delta method. Using example applications in both Stata and R, we demonstrate that a few extra steps in the examination of the estimate of the ratio may provide a confidence interval with superior coverage.
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    Measurement of Intra-household Resource Control: Exploring the Validity of Experimental Measures
    Ambler, K ; Jones, K ; Recalde, M (International Food Policy Research Institute, 2020-12-01)
    We study the validity of experimental methods designed to measure preferences for intra-household resource control among spouses in Ghana and Uganda. We implement two incentivized tasks; (1) a game that measures willingness to pay to control resources, and (2) private and joint dictator games that measure preferences for resource allocation and the extent to which those preferences are reflected in joint decisions. Behavior in the two tasks is correlated, suggesting that they describe similar underlying latent variables. In Uganda the experimental measures are robustly correlated with a range of household survey measures of resource control and women’s empowerment and suggest that simple private dictator games may be as informative as more sophisticated tasks. In Ghana, the experimental measures are not predictive of survey indicators, suggesting that context may be an important element of whether experimental measures are informative.
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    Gender Differences in Negotiation and Policy for Improvement
    Recalde, M ; Vesterlund, L (National Bureau of Economic Research, 2020-12-01)
    Men more than women succeed when negotiating over labor-market outcomes, and gender differences in negotiation likely contribute to the gender wage gap and to horizontal and vertical segregation in the labor market. We review the evidence on the many initiatives that have been put in place to reduce the effect of gender differences in negotiation. Categorizing these as either ‘fix-the-women’ or ‘fix-the-institutions’ initiatives we find serious challenges to the former. Women do not appear to be broken and encouraging them to negotiate more and differently often backfires. The evidence suggests that ‘fix-the-institution’ initiatives are more effective in reducing gender differences in outcomes. Concerns of adverse effects of banning negotiations or salary history requests have not materialized, and preliminary evidence points to reductions in the gender differences in negotiation outcomes. The strongest evidence on effectiveness in narrowing gender disparities is found for policies that increase transparency. Numerous studies find that gender differences in negotiation diminish when it is clear what to expect from the negotiation and suggest that initiatives which improve transparency are likely to help equalize opportunities at the bargaining table.
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    Tell Me Something I Don’t Already Know: Informedness and External Validity in Information Programs
    BYRNE, D ; La Nauze, A ; Martin, LA (Department of Economics, University of Melbourne, 2014)
    Information programs that leverage peer comparisons are used to encourage pro-social behavior in many contexts. We document how imperfect information generates heterogenous responses to treatments involving personalized feedback and peer comparisons. In our field experiment in retail electricity, we find that most households either overestimate or underestimate their relative energy consumption pre-treatment. Households that overestimated respond to new information by temporarily increasing electricity consumption, whereas households that underestimated take steps that lead to long term energy conservation. We explore the implications of these results for the external validity and design of information programs.
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    Reliance on income support in Australia: prevalence and persistence
    Tseng, Y-P ; Wilkins, R (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2003)
    Welfare dependence or reliance is widely regarded to have adverse consequences for both the community and welfare recipients, yet there have been few studies of the extent and nature of welfare reliance. Indeed, the concept of welfare reliance does not seem to be well defined. In this paper, we attempt to clarify the meaning of the concept and derive reliance measures consistent with this concept. These measures are applied to describe the extent and nature of reliance on income support payments in Australia of persons aged 15-64 years, using Australian Bureau of Statistics income survey data and Australian government administrative data for income support payments. Although the reliance measures available are constrained by the data, a number of insights into reliance on income support in Australia can be obtained. Receipt of income support is characterised by a large number of individuals who are reliant for relatively short periods of time, and a significant number of individuals who become reliant on a long-term, perhaps even permanent basis: one sixth of all recipients aged 15-64 years are continuously on income support for in excess of 5½ years. Over the course of a year, approximately one third of the Australian population aged 15-64 years is at some stage reliant on income support payments, of whom half are in receipt of income support payments for the entire year. Significant growth in the extent of reliance on income support over the last two decades is evident.