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Economics - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableModelling the Spread of the Coronavirus: A View from EconomicsLloyd, P ; Dixon, R (Wiley, 2021-01-27)This article reviews the modelling of the spread in Australia of COVID‐19 from the point of view of the discipline of Economics. After a brief overview of the epidemiological approach, we show that other modelling is needed for policy purposes and especially to provide a full understanding of the economic and social costs of disease control. We look at microeconomic aspects of infection, focusing on individual behaviour, the choices facing the individual and implications for policy. The use of a cost–benefit approach and macroeconomic aspects of the pandemic are examined together with the economic consequences of policy response.
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ItemThe Challenger Space Shuttle Disaster: A Case Study in the Analysis of Binary Data Using Scatter Diagrams and Logit RegressionDixon, R (WILEY, 2021-06)Abstract This article offers an instructive example of the usefulness of scatter diagrams and of logit regression in decision making. On the morning of 28 January 1986 a US space shuttle named ‘Challenger’ exploded soon after take‐off killing all seven crew members who were on board. The launch went ahead on a very cold morning despite attempts by a group of engineers to halt it. They argued that it was unsafe to proceed given the likelihood of malfunctions occurring when the temperature was below freezing. They failed to convince the decision makers involved of any strong connection between temperature at launch and the malfunction of a particular crucial part. This articles discusses how the engineers’ proper use of scatter diagrams and/or logit regression would likely have supported a convincing case to delay the launch of the shuttle.
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Item#FlattenTheCurveDixon, R (Wiley, 2020-09-14)In this paper I adapt a common model used in economics to study the diffusion of innovations to model the transmission of a virus. Emphasis is placed on the evolution of the number of new infections and the cumulative total number of infections over time and how they might be influenced by different policies. Although the model is very simple it does yield some useful implications for public policy.