Economics - Research Publications

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Author: HENRY, OLAN ×

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    Testing for a level effect in short-term interest rates
    HENRY, OT ; SUARDI, S (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2004)
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    Equity return and short-term interest rate volatility: level effects and asymmetric dynamics
    Henry, Olan T. ; OLEKALNS, NILSS ; Suardi, Sandy ( 2005-07)
    Evidence suggests that short-term interest rate volatility peakswith the level of short rates, while equity volatility responds asymmetricallyto positive and negative shocks. We present an LM basedtest that distinguishes between level effects and asymmetry in volatilitywhich is robust to the presence of unidentified nuisance parametersunder the null. There is strong evidence of a level effect and asymmetricresponse in the relationship between S&P 500 Index returns and3-month US Treasury Bills. The conditional covariance depends onthe level of the short rate which has implications for hedging equityreturns against short term interest rate movements.
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    Testing for asymmetry in interest rate volatility in the presence of a neglected level effect
    HENRY, OT ; SUARDI, S (Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2005)
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    Testing for rate-dependence and asymmetry in inflation uncertainty: evidence from the G7 economies
    Henry, Olan ; OLEKALNS, NILSS ; Suardi, Sandy ( 2006-02)
    The Friedman-Ball hypothesis implies a link between the inflation rate and inflationuncertainty. In this paper we employ a new test for the joint null hypothesis of no dependenceeffects and no asymmetry in the G7 inflation volatility. The results show that higher inflationrates operate additively via the conditional variance of inflation to induce greater inflationuncertainty in the U.S., U.K. and Canada. In addition, positive inflationary shocks are found togenerate greater inflation uncertainty than negative shocks of a similar magnitude in the U.K. andCanada.
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    Time Variation and Asymmetry in the World Price of Covariance Risk: The Implications for International Diversification
    Henry, Olan T. ; OLEKALNS, NILSS ; Shields, Kalvinder ( 2004-06)
    The International Capital Asset Pricing Model measures countryrisk in terms of the conditional covariance of national returns withthe world return. Using impulse responses from a multivariate nonlinearmodel we provide evidence of time variation and asymmetry inthe measure of country risk. and the implied benefit to internationaldiversification. The evidence implies that the price of risk and the benefitsfrom diversification may differ in a statistically and economicallymeaningful fashion across bull and bear markets.
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    The Displacement Hypothesis and Government Spending in the United Kingdom: Some New Long-Run Evidence
    Henry, Olan ; OLEKALNS, NILSS ( 2000-06)
    This paper presents new evidence on the ability of Peacock and Wiseman'sdisplacement hypothesis to explain temporal increases in the ratio ofgovernment expenditure to GDP in the United Kingdom. Using univariatemodelling techniques that are robust to structural changes in the underlyingdata generating process and a data set extending back to 1836, we find fourinstances where displacement may be said to have occurred.
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    Australian Economic Growth: Non-linearities and International Influences
    Henry, Olan T. ; Summers, Peter M. ( 2000-03)
    This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models, comparing the models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which luctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.
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    The determinants of short selling in the Hong Kongequities market
    McKenzie, Michael ; Henry, Ólan T. ( 2007-09)
    This paper investigates the determinants and information content of short selling in the Hong Kong equity market. Using daily data on the volume of short selling in individual stocks, we find that dividend payments, company fundamentals, risk, option trading, the interest rate spread and past returns and short selling are all significant determinants of short selling. Further, higher short selling in the current period is associated with higher returns in the next period. Once short sellers reduce their activity in the market however, negative returns are expected to follow.
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    Sign and phase asymmetry: News, economic activity and the stock market
    Henry, O ; Olekalns, N ; Shields, K (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2010-12-01)