Economics - Research Publications

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    Overcoming measurement error problems in the use of survey data on expectations
    Lee, K ; Shields, K (BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2007-09)
    Survey data frequently requires conversion from qualitative responses to quantitative series and it is often asserted that the conversion procedures introduce measurement errors that render the series unusable in structural modelling. We investigate the nature and treatment of the measurement error that arises when conversion procedures are used to obtain direct measures of expectations. We use simulation experiments to demonstrate the need for the adequate treatment of conversion errors and show that a procedure proposed to ‘purge’ the series of conversion error is extremely successful in circumventing the problems. We illustrate the procedures in empirical applications using business survey data.
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    Real time representation of the UK output gap in the presence of model uncertainty
    Garratt, A ; Lee, K ; Mise, E ; Shields, K (ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2009-01-01)
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    Measuring the response of macroeconomic uncertainty to shocks
    Shields, K ; Olekalns, N ; Henry, OT ; Brooks, C (M I T PRESS, 2005-05)
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    The impact of monetary union on macroeconomic integration: Evidence from West Africa
    Fielding, D ; Shields, K (WILEY, 2005-11)
    Data from 19 African nations is used to investigate the hypothesis that monetary union—represented in this case by the CFA Franc Zone—augments the extent of macroeconomic integration. The paper covers two key dimensions of integration: the volume of bilateral trade, and the magnitude of cross‐country business cycle correlation. Restricting our attention to a part of the world in which (for historical reasons) monetary union membership is exogenous to economic characteristics, we can test whether the large single‐currency effects claimed by A. Rose apply within a sample of less developed countries.
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    The asymmetric effects of uncertainty on inflation and output growth
    Grier, KB ; Henry, OT ; Olekalns, N ; Shields, K (WILEY, 2004-09-01)
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    REAL-TIME REPRESENTATIONS OF THE OUTPUT GAP
    Garratt, A ; Lee, K ; Mise, E ; Shields, K (MIT PRESS, 2008-11)