Economics - Research Publications

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End date: 2002 × Author: HENRY, OLAN ×

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    The Displacement Hypothesis and Government Spending in the United Kingdom: Some New Long-Run Evidence
    Henry, Olan ; OLEKALNS, NILSS ( 2000-06)
    This paper presents new evidence on the ability of Peacock and Wiseman'sdisplacement hypothesis to explain temporal increases in the ratio ofgovernment expenditure to GDP in the United Kingdom. Using univariatemodelling techniques that are robust to structural changes in the underlyingdata generating process and a data set extending back to 1836, we find fourinstances where displacement may be said to have occurred.
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    Australian Economic Growth: Non-linearities and International Influences
    Henry, Olan T. ; Summers, Peter M. ( 2000-03)
    This paper considers the extent to which fluctuations in Australian economic growth are affected by domestic and overseas economic performance. We investigate the performance of a range of non-linear models versus linear models, comparing the models using Bayes factors and posterior odds ratios. The posterior odds ratios favour non-linear specifications in which luctuations in economic activity in the US affect Australia's economic performance. Our results suggest that an exogenous negative shock will be more persistent, lead to greater output volatility, and have a greater impact on growth, than a positive shock of equal magnitude.
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